Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Havoc; 5-Going Mobile.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Let’s go with a bit of a gamble in the Saturday opener. Based on speed figures (not very fast), Havoc shouldn’t be any lower than 8-1 on the morning line but we have a suspicion that, as a son of Sir Prancealot, the Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding will step forward considerably in his first start on grass. Clearly most effective as a late-running sprinter and fresh from a nice state-bred maiden $50,000 off-the-pace score at Del Mar, the California-bred juvenile should find enough pace in this race to complement his style, so let’s give him a chance to pull off a surprise in a race that came up rather shallow. Going Mobile should be included on your ticket as well. Freshened since June after being pitched too high when a distant fourth in the Fasig-Tipton Futurity, the son of Stay Thirsty shows a healthy series of workouts to have him fit and ready for his return and could easily be a better type this time around. On numbers, he’s right there with the rest of them.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Mike Operator; 2-Mendez Mile.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this $10,000 main track miler, so we suggest you tread lightly or maybe even pass the race altogether. Mike Operator is the logical top pick- he’s won four races from eight starts over the Santa Anita main track – but he’s the need-the-lead type with some speed types drawn inside, so there is no guarantee he’ll get his preferred trip. Mendez Mile has a prior win over this main track and is a closing type with a projected race shape that should complement his style. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Pens Street; 2-Hennys Crazy Train.
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Recent five length $8,000 claiming winner Pens Street is boosted all the way up to the $20,000 level by new trainer Mark Glatt (20% with the first-off-the-claim angle) and the daughter of Street Sense may be capable of handling this stronger assignment if she can repeat her Los Alamitos success on the big track. A winner of five races during her career, she has a good stalking style that projects to secure a comfortable trip and a recent speed figure that is par for this class. Hennys Crazy Train won a starter’s allowance affair at Los Alamitos last month, her seventh score from just 19 starts. However, she’s never run particularly well over the deeper Santa Anita dirt strip, so we’ll include her but not with a whole lot of confidence.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Big Buzz; 1-Settecento.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Good Juju.
Forecast: Big Buzz doesn’t always turn in two alike, but when he’s on his game he can win at this level. The son of Mr. Big is double jumped in class following a sharp score for $12,500 at Del Mar in mid-August and has won a pair of races over this main track in the past, so we’re expecting the veteran gelding to fire another big shot despite picking up eight lbs. off that victory (we’re not entirely sure why he doesn’t get to claim the apprentice allowance). Settecento, away since July, was claimed for $16,000 by Steve Knapp and finally makes it back after three months of R&R. We’ll assume he’s okay since he’s returning on the raise, and from his rail draw he should be prominent throughout.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Glorious Life; 4-Man O Rose; 2-Antibes.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: As this is penned, Glorious Life finds himself on the also eligible list and will need the scratches to smile in order to make his racing debut, but if he manages to sneak in the son of Vronsky should be extremely live and well-meant. The Carla Gaines-trained colt has trained like a very nice sort and seems fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. He’s certainly bred for grass. If ‘Life is forced to sit it out, we’ll double the racing using Man O Rose and Antibes, the two-three finishers in a similar state-bred maiden turf sprint last month. The former pressed hot splits and paid the price late; he’ll most likely face softer fractions today and should stick around a long time, the extra sixteenth of a mile notwithstanding. The latter flew home with the help of the race shape in a promising debut and seems certain to produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind him.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Elevado
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Afjan.
Forecast: Elevado removes blinkers (love that angle) in his first start following a $20,000 Steve Miyadi claim and is raised to the $35,000 (nw-3) level in his first try around two turns (love that angle, too). Back in two weeks after finishing an even fourth in a quick dash for the level, the Street Boss gelding projects to settle into an ideal pace-stalking/pressing position and have every chance against this group based on his sprint speed figures. The weight break from bug boy Aguilar won’t hurt, either. Co-second choice at 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and strong push in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Just a Guess
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Just a Guess was given an easy run in his debut sprinting on dirt from the rail at Del Mar in late July when he wound up fourth before galloping out willingly in a promising performance. The California-bred son of Nyquist was entered back twice under these conditions (mile, grass) since that race (August 24, September 29) but both times got stuck on the also-eligible list. Lazy in the morning but with plenty of talent when he chooses to show it, the Paul Reddam homebred finds ideal conditions and below average field for the level, so at 6-1 on the morning line he’ll offer excellent wagering value in the win pool and as a confident single in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Dua; 5-Becky’s Dream
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Dua is wheeled back in two weeks (an unusual move for trainer Bob Baffert) after an admirable third place finish in the Chandelier Stakes-G2 over a distance of ground. This overnight stakes dash looks well within her capabilities based on that race and her game maiden win sprinting at Del Mar in her debut last summer, but at 6/5 on the morning line, there’s no real value to be found in a race that also includes the returning Becky’s Dream, whose form last spring makes her competitive. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that probably is best left alone.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-British Isles ; 3-Nyros; 1-Urban Legend; 10-E J Won the Cup.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The finale appears to be a hot maiden juvenile offering several fast working and expensive prospects, including no less than three from the Bob Baffert barn. British Isles is a Justify colt from the dam of Grade-1 winner Eight Rings with a :58 1/5 gate work on his resume and Mike Smith in the saddle. You have to think he’s the one to beat based if nothing else on the jockey assignments. Another Baffert, Nysos, has looked good on video while preparing for his debut, as has Urban Legend, purchased for $1.3 million at the OBS April Sale, where he smoked a furlong in 9 3/5 seconds, the fastest move among those that previewed at that distance in the entire auction. E J Won the Cup is the best of the known element, having finishing a strong second to subsequent stakes winner Slider in a highly rated heat at Del Mar last month. He’ll take some beating with anything close that to effort today.
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