Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Birth of Cool
Backups/savers: 2-Never Seen Before; 3-Brother Reid
Forecast: The Saturday opener – the first of 12 on today’s program – is a restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf miler that projects to have a much faster than par pace thanks to the presence of several need-the-lead types. Therefore, let’s concentrate on the best late runners. Birth of Cool always is most effective when held up early and produced late and given the likely race shape he should have every chance from the quarter pole home. A first-off-the-claim play for trainer Reed Saldana (superior stats with this angle), the son of Karakontie is assured a ground-saving trip from the rail and with a clear sailing late can tag the leaders close home. Never Seen Before, third in the same race our top pick exits, switches to top rider Juan Hernandez and really won’t have to improve much to register his first win over the local lawn in his eighth try. Brother Reid is another that always does his best work late. He didn’t get the best of runs when no factor in a similar affair last month and since this will be his third start off a long layoff the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding should produce enough of a forward move to have a legitimate chance. We’ll include all three on our rolling exotic ticket, with the main push going to Birth of Cool.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Fiamina
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast:We’re largely guessing in the first of two baby events on the card, so we can either spread the race or find a single and hope to be right. Fiamina has been training out of the range of the video cameras at San Luis Rey Downs, but the tab looks decent enough for trainer Peter Miller. She lands top jockey Juan Hernandez and lands an outside post that will allow her to load last and hopefully break first. As a daughter of Stay Thirsty from the multiple stakes winning sprinter My Fiona, she is bred to win early so let’s take a stand and make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Ancient Peace
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Ancient Peace hid from first level allowance foes in an off-the-turf main track miler earlier this month and today tries to carry her intense speed nine furlongs in this year’s renewal of the Providencia Stakes for sophomore fillies. She earned her diploma in convincing style in her previous start, a mile affair on grass, so the surface switch won’t hurt and may even help, and she clearly is a 3-year-old of considerable quality. The John Sadler-trained filly will easily be the controlling speed, and if she switches off at any stage the daughter of War Front can dominate every step of the way. We’ll make her a short priced, logical, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Fly a Fantasy; 6-Recalcitrant
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s another sprint for 2-year-olds, a split of the second race for state-bred fillies. Fly a Fantasy looked like an okay type when breezing in company and proving best in a gate drill (4f, :48.4hg) last week and should at least fit enough for a good effort first crack out of the box. We’ll give her preference on top but also toss in the Doug O’Neill-trained Recalcitrant, who has been doing her preparation at San Luis Rey Downs and has put on paper a solid set of drills with decent final times. Let’s try to survive and advance using just these two in a race that probably should otherwise be left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Enjoy It Strait; 6=Hapi Hapi
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, an allowance optional claimer over a mile on dirt for California-bred runners. Enjoy It Strait seeks his third straight win for new trainer Mark Glatt following a timely $20,000 claim at Golden Gate Fields four weeks ago, and the versatile, dependable, and improving gelding is being raised to the $40,000 level in a clear sign of confidence. Strictly on speed figures, the son of Southern Image is an absolute fit on this circuit at this level and his ideal pace-stalking style should keep him free of trouble and provide him with every chance to keep his winning streak alive. Hapi Hapi apparently has improved dramatically after being sent to Arizona, and while it’s highly unlikely that the Clubhouse Ride gelding faced company as tough as this he has put together a nice resume (five wins from his last six starts) while earning numbers that make him competitive against this group. He may try to clear the field early from his outside draw and if able to do so he should find himself on or near the lead throughout.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Habeas; 4-Devil Moon; 8-El Oro
Backups/savers: none
Forecast:This maiden claiming turf sprint is borderline inscrutable. We see at least three logical contenders, but none can be counted on, so we suggest you spread as deeply as you can afford to in your various rolling exotics. Habeas shows the popular maiden to maiden claiming class drop so by rule he really should improve enough to be right there, even though he has shown no desire to finish under pressure in his first four outings. However, against this group, he may stick around a long time. The switch to top jockey Juan Hernandez certainly won’t hurt. Devil Moon is a 10-race maiden and appears to have gotten used to losing, though he has finished second four times, so at least he’s paying his way. The Malibu Moon gelding has speed figures that can win, so we’ll include him, but not with great expectations. El Oro isn’t too much on paper but at least he can finish a bit, and in a race that could easily see a pace meltdown the French-bred gelding by way of Florida might be able to lay back and then produce a dangerous late kick. Numbers-wise, he’s a good fit with these,
RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Bluegrass Go Go
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Bluegrass Go Go actually ran (though he didn’t finish) in the San Felipe Stakes two races back and then most recently wound up a respectable third in a maiden optional claiming sprint in late March while earning a speed figure that is far above par for this bottom rung maiden $20,000 level. The class drop is a serious red flag, but if he has at least one good one left the son of Sharp Azteca should be able to outrun this modest group. Assuming he doesn’t scratch (these types often do), the Doug O’Neill-trained colt projects be a no value rolling exotic single in a race that is best left alone.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-El Potente
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: El Potente is a lightly raced Temple City colt with rapidly improving form and skyrocketing speed figures. The Dan Blacker-trained 4-year-old has won his last pair by a combined 12 lengths, one sprinting, one routing and one each on dirt and grass. He’s also displayed the versatility to win on the front end or from a stalking position, so no matter what the race flow turns out to be regular pilot Joe Bravo should be able to improvise his strategy. Eligible for this starter’s allowance nine furlong grass affair for having raced (and won) at that $50,000 claiming level two runs back, he’s a likely winner once again as a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Adare Manor; 3-Big Switch
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Adare Manor and Big Switch finished heads apart in a stakes quality two-turn allowance main track event in late March and meet again in this year’s edition of the Santa Maria S.-G2 for older fillies and mares. They are just as difficult to separate today as they were in their last encounter, though in today’s event ‘Switch benefits from a two pound break in the weights, for whatever that’s worth. First or second in all six of her starts over the local dirt strip, ‘Manor has trained sharply (as usual) in the interim and should fire another big shot. Ditto for ‘Switch, who earned a career top speed figure in her narrow defeat last time out. Either one can win, so rather than split hairs we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Virat; 4-Seismic Spirit
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Virat drops into a claimer for the first time and may have found his winning level after a series of tough outings when facing first level allowance competition. Drawn comfortably outside, the Peter Miller-trained gelding likely will fold into a cozy stalking position and then be able to move when he’s asked to. He’s solid on speed figures and switches to one of the stable’s “go-to” riders, Ramon Vasquez. Miller’s other starter, Seismic Spirit, is slower on numbers than his stable mate but has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, a previous win over the local lawn, and, with just six career starts, plenty of room for further improvement. Top jockey Juan Hernandez stays aboard and knows him well. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Virat on top.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:09 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Whimsical Heir
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Whimsical Heir should be a very short price to earn her diploma in this state-bred sprint for fillies and mares. Third in both starts to date, most recently as the 7/5 favorite in a similar affair, the daughter or Orb, should be part of what projects to be a soft pace and then have her chance to create separation from the quarter pole home. The Mark Glatt-trained 4-year-old shows a healthy series of workouts since raced, retains Juan Hernandez, and will have no excuses as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Not Now; 5-Lucky For You
Backups/Savers: 11-Carmen Miranda
Forecast: Not Now was a visually pleasing winner from maidens sprinting over the flat course while utilizing a mid-pack, stalking style and a good late kick to secure the win, a strategy that often pays dividends in these Hillside slalom events. The daughter of More Than Ready acts like a stakes type but trainer John Sadler is properly using her conditions to gain experience and confidence. Interesting, Juan Hernandez jumps ship to ride Lucky For You, a talented filly he has ridden in all three of her starts. The daughter of Uncle Mo graduated over a mile on the front end last time while producing another forward move on speed figures. The turn back in trip isn’t a concern for the Bob Baffert-trained filly; however, Not Now may have a sharper turn of foot and thus have a slight edge. Carmen Miranda, in the frame in her last five starts, is a dependable type and should at least hit the board again. We’ll include her on a backup ticket.
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