Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Den of Inequity; 4-Star of the Night.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Den of Inequity stayed on nicely to finish a willing, if not one paced, runner-up in her debut at Del Mar in mid-August and can be expected to move forward with that race under her belt for a barn that has solid stats with the second time starter angle. This nine furlong trip should help as well, so despite the fact that leading rider Juan Hernandez opts for the 9/5 morning line favorite Star of the Night we’ll stick with this Michael McCarthy-trained daughter of Roaring Lion, who earned a much better speed figure than ‘Night in each of their racing debuts. The latter has plenty of room to improve as well and is a “must use” somewhere on your rolling exotic ticket.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Smuggler’s Run.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Good Juju, 5-Established.
Forecast: Smuggler’s Run takes a realistic class drop after hitting the board in a pair of considerably stronger races and in a sign of confidence remains above his claim level in this extended sprint for $25,000 platers. Twice a winner in three career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the Peter Miller-trained gelding has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint trip and recent speed figures that are good enough to beat this field. He’s the co-second choice at 5/2 on the morning line and will offer decent value at that price if you can get it.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Sand to Sea; 6-Dusty Springfield
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Sand to Sea, in the frame in both starts when failing by less than a length in each outing, returns to a turf sprint today and seems well-spotted to graduate in this maiden special weight affair for state-bred fillies and mares. The daughter of Danzing Candy has rising numbers and good tactical speed, so with another forward move today she’ll be hard to beat unless one of the first timers turn up hot. Dusty Springfield, a debuting daughter of Grazen, has been training exclusively at Los Alamitos, so we don’t have any video workouts to lean on, but she has winning connections and grass breeding combined with the presence of top rider Juan Hernandez. We’re “Wishin’ and Hopin’ that she is good enough to be competitive in a soft affair.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Memes .
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Montana.
Forecast: Memes has little to beat in this maiden $20,000 main track miler and although he’s a 10-race maiden at not one to trust (nothing in here is), he could easily be a better type off the 11 month layoff for new trainer Phil D’Amato. We’re expecting bug boy Torrealba to have him on or near the lead throughout for a barn that has superior stats with comebackers. He’s the 9/5 morning line favorite and probably will go a bit lower.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Carmen Miranda; 6-Stressed.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-M is for Magic; 2-Wet My Beak.
Forecast: Carmen Miranda looks well-spotted in this six furlong turf sprint for second level allowance fillies and mares. In the frame in all five starts over the local lawn, the daughter of Stanford always has been genuine and versatile and employs an effective pace-stalking style that can cope with any type of race flow. Beaten a neck when fourth vs. similar at Del Mar last time out, she gets an extra furlong to work with today, has trained quite well in the interim, retains Ramon Vasquez, and rates a slight edge with her best effort. Stressed has won three of six over the Santa Anita turf course and is fresh from a game score at this level at Del Mar in mid-August. She seems certain to provide a strong pace presence from her outside draw and be very tough on the lead or from an outside stalking position.
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Big Gun.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Noble Union.
Forecast: Big Gun was nosed out in a similar bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler at Del Mar when more than four lengths clear of the rest, and anything close that effort today should be more than good enough to earn him his diploma. From a comfortable inside draw, the Mr. Big gelding should draft into an ideal ground-saving position while always close to what should be a soft pace and then have every chance from there. However, at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower he won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Don’t Ju Forget; 6-Unwritten Code.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Don’t Ju Forget has much in her favor in this California-bred first level allowance turf sprint and if you can get close to her morning line of 3-1 you’ll have a value play. The Peter Miller-trained filly turns back to her preferred distance, has solid recent form, and broke her maiden over this course and distance last November. She has enough early speed to secure a good stalking position and should prove hard to deny when the pressure is turned on through the lane. Unwritten Code is strictly the one to beat and a “must use” in rolling exotic play. A winner of six races from 14 starts including a runaway score over this turf course when facing $25,000 foes last winter, the daughter of Desert Code gets off the rail and catches a field that may not be able to match her kind of early zip. The main concern is that she’s noticeable slower on speed figures than our top pick.
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:43 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Practical Move
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move returns in this second level allowance main track miler facing older horses for the first time and will be racing with Lasix following a series of sharp drills that should have him fit and ready. If he’s going to make a Breeders’ Cup race (Dirt mile or Classic), the son of Practical Joke needs to show he has retained all of his class and speed and everything he’s done in the morning indicates that he has. Based on numbers, he’s simply too good for this group but at 8/5 on the morning line he'll be a fairly short price, though deservedly so.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Willa T; 3-Mocha Grande; 4-Blue Oasis.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Persia.
Forecast: Willa T was given a relatively easy race when closing on her own courage to be third in her debut at Del Mar last month and today we’re expecting to see a more serious effort. The Tim Yakteen-trained filly likely will drop in from her far outside post and settle early before being cut loose at the quarter pole. With some help up front she could make some serious noise close home. Mocha Grande and Blue Oasis both have experience around two turns, and both have room to improve. However, it’s possible they could hook up early and engage in a faster pace than is ideal, and if that happens, all the better for our top selection.,
*
.svg){kind=logo}
