Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Slam Diego
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race, like all grass events on today’s program, has been transferred to the main track. Slam Diego returns to the claiming ranks while dropping below her $40,000 claim level and appears properly spotted in this restricted (nw-2) one mile affair for fillies and mares. She may be most effective as the controlling speed and likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics similar to the trip that produced her bottom-rung maiden claiming win last summer at Del Mar. She should have no trouble with the surface switch, so we’ll make her a no value, short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Rain Diva
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: In a bottom-rung $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that offers little to embrace, Rain Diva lands the cozy outside draw and should have every chance to deliver a winning effort. She’s a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and projects to be on the lead or at worst in a comfortable stalking position. She’s reunited with “win rider” Edwin Maldonado in her first outing following a brief freshening since mid-March and shows a couple of recent solid drills that should have her on edge. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, she may be worth a small play at or near that price.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Too Much Heaven; 3-Youteyourhonor
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a $32,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that originally was carded for turf but now will be contested over the main track. Too Much Heaven moves up a notch after a clever score over the local lawn that produced a career top speed figure. She was able to control that race gate-to-wire and based on the projected pace flow of this event the daughter of Twirling Candy could easily enjoy a similar front-running trip. She has won on dirt in the past so let’s hope she will be able to duplicate her last race on this track. Youteyourhonor turns back from a mile after narrowly missing in a tougher starter allowance affair in mid-March. She’s effective at any distance or surface and does her best work when settling in the second flight and kicking home from the quarter pole to the wire.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Deservedly; 2-Indulge
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Deservedly is improving with each start, and after breaking his maiden for $50,000 last time out the son of Nyquist is protected in starter’s allowance company in a sign of confidence. His winning speed figure makes him highly competitive right back despite the class hike and four easy breezes since he last raced in mid-March indicates he’s ready for another forward move. Indulge failed to make an impression when tried over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields last time out but a repeat of his strong third place effort two races back over the local dirt track would make him a serious contender. The son of Kantharos has the proper style for this seven furlong distance and we’re expecting the Richard Mandella-trained gelding to be heard from late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Deservedly.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Talklessworkmore; 1-Oubabe
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race has been transferred to the main track. Talklessworkmore should be able to clear the field from his outside post position (six of six) in this first level allowance mile affair and if he can without much pressure the son of Summer Front could get brave and keep on going. The five-year-old gelding is fast enough on speed figures to win at this level and makes what some would consider to be a favorable trainer change from Shelby Ruis to Antonio Garcia. The switch in surface for him is no problem. Oubabe also should be included on your ticket. In the frame in 10 of 12 career starts and effective on any surface, the John Sadler-trained colt figures to inherit an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip and have dead aim and every chance when the pressure is turned on. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Talklessworkmore on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Truehood
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Truehood has trained like a serious prospect for Bob Baffert, and if he makes no mistakes from his rail draw the highly regarded son of Nyquist should be quite capable of winning at first asking. Last summer at Del Mar he outworked stable mate (and Grade-1 winner) Cave Rock but had to be stopped on before making a start, and while his recent tab contains no flashy workout times he has done everything asked while looking fit and ready. A $700,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, he offers a solid gamble at anywhere near his morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Doncic; 1-Thunderheart
Backups/savers: 3-Wyfire
Forecast:The three main players in this starter allowance sprint that now will be contested on dirt are drawn inside and we’re expecting the winner to be included in this group. Doncic earned a career top speed figure when narrowly missing by a neck under these conditions in late March and returns today with an extra furlong to work with while switching to the stable’s “go-to” rider Kent Desormeaux. The son of Cairo Prince can handle dirt, and after finishing second in three of his last four starts he seems overdue to break through with a victory. Thunderheart returns off short rest from a restricted $32,000 grass sprint two weeks ago, and like our top pick earned a career best speed figure in doing so. The five year old gelding has good early speed and likely will be asked to show it from the rail. Wyfire is slower on numbers than the first two listed above but he broke his maiden on dirt at Del Mar in August of 2020 and has been racing on grass ever since. Perhaps the return to the main track will do him some good, and he’ll be running on late, and it will be surprising if he doesn’t at least hit the board.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Starship Defiant; 4-Rose Harbor
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll double the eighth race, an allowance optional claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. Starship Defiant has won four races from 21 career starts, with all four victories accomplished over the Santa Anita dirt strip. In the frame in three of her last four starts, the daughter of Empire Way is overdue for a win at this level and should be on or near the lead throughout. Depending upon how much pressure Race Judicata (the other speed) applies during the early stages of the race may determine whether she can control proceedings gate to wire. Rose Harbor likes to settle early and produce a late run, and if the early fractions are faster than par she’ll have every chance to wear down the leaders in the final stages. Her speed figures are gradually rising, and as a lightly raced mare (just seven starts) she probably has further room for improvement.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Golden Microphone; 8-Sit Look and Hope
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The finale is an extended sprint for maiden fillies and mares that originally was slated for turf but instead will be contested on the main track. The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s default to a pair of first time starters with reasonable credentials. Golden Microphone vans down from Golden Gate Fields where she has been preparing for her debut and it is reasonable to assume that her connections have been impressed enough with her morning drills to try her on the big circuit. The Jonathan Wong-trained daughter of Stanford shows several drills that appear strong based on raw final times, so at 3-1 on the morning line she deserves the edge in a race begging to be won by a fresh face. Sit Look and Hope is another newcomer that appears intriguing. The daughter of Lookin At Lucky has been gearing up for her debut at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Peter Miller while recently working five furlongs from the gate in 1:00.3hg, a bullet for that distance on April 19. She certainly should be a live item against this group.
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