Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Doncic; 3-Law Abiding
Backups/savers: 2-Inch
Forecast: As of this writing, the Friday opener is scheduled to be contested on grass. Due to recent rains, there is a possibility that the race will be switched to the main track. Assuming the race goes as is, we will go three-deep in rolling exotic play while slightly preferring Doncic on top. Away since last June but returning protected in a sign of confidence, the Vladimir Cerin-trained horse has won off a layoff in the past for a barn that has average-to-solid stats with the layoff angle and shows a work tab that should have him fit enough for a strong effort off the bench. He’s run well over this course in the past, will be accompanied by the barn’s “go-to” rider (Kent Desormeaux) and has several back speed figures that are better-than-par for this level. Also, the son of Cairo Prince has won on dirt in the past, so if the race comes off the lawn his chances shouldn’t be negatively impacted. Law Abiding dominated a weaker field over this turf course two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly as his connections attempt to strike while the iron is hot. The son of Jimmy Creed once again finds a field lacking in early speed, so if he can clear without pressure he could once again wire the field. Inch is the most dangerous of the closing types and with some help up the veteran son of Violence has a chance to be heard from late.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Vinny the Coin
Backups/savers: 4-Lemon Drop Shot
Forecast: Vinny the Coin has had just two starts, both of which came against much tougher competition, so the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding is largely unexposed and therefore the one to beat in this five runner bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claiming sprint for older horses. In both outings last year, he displayed good early speed before fading late and returns as a first-time gelding and as a first-time Lasix user for a stable that has strong stats with layoff runners. Against this group, he should be able to quickly gain control and never look back under bug boy Aguilar. For protection, you may want to toss in on a ticket or two Lemon Drop Shot, solid in the speed figure department but nine times second in 14 career starts and clearly lacking a winning spirit. He’ll be doing his best work late and seems like an logical exacta partner with our top pick.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Nauvoo; 5-Big Swede
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Nauvoo almost certainly will inherit the role as the controlling speed in this restricted $16,000 claiming main track miler for older horses, and given that type of trip he should be heavily backed to win his fifth race from just 10 career starts. Listed at 9/5 on the morning line and expected to go lower, the Jonathan Wong-trained gelding brings with him solid Northern California all-weather form to a dirt surface that he should handle just fine, having won over the Fresno main track last fall using the same gate-to-wire tactics that will be employed today. The son of Not This Time will race without blinkers for the first time in his career, another positive factor. Recent $16,000 Vladimir Cerin claim Big Swede is the one to fear most. He projects to enjoy a soft stalking trip behind our top pick and then have every chance to wear that one down when the pressure is turned on. The son of Mr. Big has numbers that fit and is worth including somewhere on your ticket even though he’s never been all the dependable.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Paid in Gold
Backups/Savers: 6-Tennessee Moon
Forecast: 2-Paid in Gold has done some very good work leading up to her racing debut and the Mark Glatt-trained filly, eligible to this restricted maiden special weight sprint for having been purchased for $100,000 in last year’s OBS April sale, appears well spotted to win at first asking. Bred for much speed (Ransom the Moon), the New York-bred sophomore has been given a solid foundation to be fit and ready, and it should be noted that most first-timers from this stable usually run a bit better than they work. We like her strongly on top but will also include as a backup ticket the other daughter of Ransom the Moon in the field, Tennessee Moon, second in a similar spot earlier this month.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bold Endeavor
Backups/savers: 5-Royal Act
Forecast: Bold Endeavor has won two of his last three starts, both of those victories accomplished at this same $50,000 claiming level. He’s facing familiar foes again today while making his first start since being haltered by trainer Tim Yakteen following a game score with a strong speed figure that was his fifth career win over the Santa Anita main track. The barn has strong stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, and with top rider Juan Hernandez riding him back there’s no reason to believe that the veteran Bernardini gelding can’t fire a winning shot once again. Royal Act finished a closing third in the same race our top pick exits and looks once again like the most dangerous of the late runners. Winless in six starts at Santa Anita and just 2-for-19 overall, he’s never been one to bank on but might be worth including on a backup ticket for protection.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Finally Here; 8-Hembree
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race originally was carded for six and one-half furlongs on turf but as of this writing it is unknown if there will be a surface switch to dirt due to recent rains. Finally Here can handle either surface so we suspect he will remain in the field no matter what. The veteran Uncle Mo gelding, now seven years old but with just 10 career starts, finished fourth, beaten less than a length, over this course and distance at this level last time out and won’t have to improve much at all to break through with a victory. He’s won twice on dirt in the past and a strong case in fact could be made that he is most comfortable on the main track. Hembree makes his second start off a long layoff after being rusty and non-competitive in a much stronger $50,000 claiming turf sprint earlier this meeting. This class drop is warranted for the nine-year-old son of Proud Citizen, who has finished first or second in 18 of 42 career starts that includes a win over this course and distance a couple of years ago. He’s also won on dirt, so he likely will remain in the field even if the race is transferred to the main track. He’s an ex-classer who has never raced this cheaply and therefore must be considered a threat.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Adare Manor; 4-Big Switch
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Adare Manor had no excuse when second in a similar second level allowance affair over this track and distance last month, the fourth time she had been beaten as the favorite from just eight lifetime starts. She’ll be a short price again today and while she certainly is good enough to win she’s clearly proven to be untrustworthy. Big Switch doesn’t have the resume as her main rival but she’s lightly raced and improving and projects to draft into a comfortably stalking trip and have every chance from there. Her numbers are rising, and with another forward move today the John Sadler-trained California-bred must be given a legitimate look.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Carole Lombard
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The nightcap is a first level allowance turf miler for 3-year-old fillies. There’s a possibility the race could be switched to dirt due to recent rains. Carole Lombard has solid form on both surfaces and will be the one to beat on either the main track or the lawn. The daughter of Grazen has produced a forward move based on speed figures in each of her four career starts and seems likely to continue her improving pattern against a state-bred field that didn’t come up particularly strong. Regular rider Ramon Vasquez stays aboard and should have this Phil D’Amato-trained filly within striking range throughout. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, she would offer good wagering value at that price.
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