Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Don’t Fight the Fed; 4-Ship and Scam
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Dont Fight the Fed lost a winning purse when disqualified out of a nose victory in a similar Cal-bred main track miler last month but a repeat of effort today should earn him a diploma from his favorable inside draw. The son of Nyquist improved his speed figure considerably following his sprint debut at Santa Anita in June (a non-threatening fourth place effort) and with another forward move today he should be tough to deny. Ship and Scam, third in the same race ‘Fed exits, has a reasonable look again, though as a 12 race maiden there is far less room for improvement than what our top pick offers.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Sing a Happy Song; 4-Diamond Bar Gal
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Perkins.
Forecast: Wearing blinkers, Sing a Happy Song breezed from the gate sans company - see workout - in a sizzling :58 2/5 late last month, doing so without undue pressure while looking fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. The daughter of Stanford has no grass pedigree to speak of and must leave from the far outside post, but if the Kristin Mulhall-trained sophomore runs like she works she should be able to graduate from this moderate state-bred group of fillies and mares. Diamond Bar Gal finished fourth without mishap in her debut over this course and distance and has a right to produce a forward move. She may be a bit one-paced but with a race under her belt the daughter of Vronsky rates a reasonable look.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Thirty Four Coupe; 2-Big Hat Willie
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Thirty Four Coupe seems pretty solid in this starter allowance main track miler for older horses. Fresh from a career top effort over this track and distance when fourth in a similar event last month, the son of Run Away and Hide shows a steady, healthy work tab in the interim and really won’t have to improve much to beat this field. With the switch to Juan Hernandez, he should be on or near the lead throughout. Big Hat Willie, fractious in the gate and then a close fifth in the same race our top pick exits, should be prominent throughout and have every chance from a stalking or pressing position.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Andreadytorumble; 10-Eight Clap; 6-Stick Shift
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The fourth race is a contentious turf sprint for juveniles over five furlongs Andreadytorumble recorded a quick breeze (:10 flat) at the OBS April Sale and then brought $170,000 through the ring. A half-brother to the multiple stakes winning turf sprinting filly Lighthouse, the son of Street Boss has been burning up the main track for trainer Peter Miller in a series of fast gate works that should have him fit and ready. Eight Clap is a good moving first timer from the Jeff Mullins barn that brought $190,000 at the OBS March Sale, where he appeared a bit green but still breezed fairly well in 10 1/5 seconds. Out of a stakes winning mare, the son of Audible looks like a live item, though the barn has below average stats with debut runners. Stick Shift definitely has a “win early” work tab on his resume, and the Doug O’Neill-trained colt is bred for grass, though as is the case with all three of these, has never recorded a turf breeze, so we’re largely guessing.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Wishtheyallcouldbe; 7-Jasmine Chieftain; 1-Wrong Turn Cupid
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Wishtheyallcouldbe was claimed for $20,000 in late July and returns at the bottom in a $8,000 seller for fillies and mares, not exactly the healthiest of patterns, She’s clearly good enough to win at this level if you assume that she has at least one good one left, but with 12 races on her resume through more than half of her five-year-old campaign, the daughter of Grazen offers a shaky proposition at 5/2 on the morning line. Jasmine Chieftain is winless in six prior starts over the Del Mar main track with just one third place finish but she may be the most dangerous of the closing types. Wrong Turn Cupid will display inside speed from the rail, but if the track’s inside lanes are deep as is often the case, her task won’t be easy.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Derecho Dandy; 3-Beef Winslow
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Giovinazzo.
Forecast: Derecho Dandy woke up when dropped to this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 last time out, missing by a neck while earning a career top speed figure. A similar effort today at this same condition over the same course and distance should be good enough. Beef Winslow shows the blinkers off angle that always catches our eye, and the son of Honor Code could wake up big time in this softer spot. He’s back with Juan Hernandez and could be dangerous if permitted to be the controlling speed.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Pleasant
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Pleasant is fast on numbers and well placed to make amends for her close defeat in a similar first level allowance dash at Santa Anita in mid-June to Clearly Unhinged, who franked the form when winding up second in a photo in the Test Stakes-G1 at Saratoga in her next outing., The Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Munnings should be part of the pace throughout and a repeat of either one of her first two starts should be good enough to regain her winning form. A series of fast recent workouts over the local main track adds fuel to the fire. At 8/5 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Glandford
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The finale is a one mile maiden grass affair for juveniles that appears to be a far below average affair. None of the first timers have impressed in the morning and those that have raced aren’t very exciting, either. Glandford invades from England, where he finished second in a straightway six furlong sprint at Yarmouth (every chance, weakened late) while earning a decent Timeform Rating, one that makes him a major player in his first-off-the-plane start for Edward Freeman. He probably can’t beat a decent maiden over here, but that may not be one in the field. We’ll reluctantly use him as a single in a race that might be best left alone.
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