Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Pink Ace
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Song of Shadows.
Forecast: Pink Ace earned a strong speed figure when stakes placed in her second career start at Oaklawn Park in April, but is eligible to this modest starter’s allowance ($40,000) six furlong affair for having won (and claimed) for this price in her debut the previous month. She’s eligible to valuable ship-and-win money in her California debut and has trained like she’s fit and ready for new conditioner Phil D’Amato. A bargain basement ($5,000 yearling purchase, the daughter of Aikenite appears to have a good share of quality and should simply completely outclass this field at a price lower than her morning line of 9/5.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Des Doights; 8-Nurcan; 4-Nesso’s Lastharrah
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: There are three entrants eligible for the lucrative ship-and-win bonus in this maiden $32,000 claiming sprint for two year olds and seem certain to receive the bulk of the action. Des Doights had a less than ideal trip when fourth in his debut in a maiden $40,000 dash at Ellis Park in his debut in mid-June and arrives for trainer Wesley Ward with a solid series of local drills that should have him primed for a winning effort in a soft spot. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper. Nurkan didn’t show a whole lot facing tougher maiden special weight foes at Keeneland last spring but he’s a first time gelding breaking from a cozy outside post and could be a better type this time around. Nesso’s Lastharrah was outfooted and no factor facing straight maidens at Gulfstream Park in his debut last month but with that effort behind him and this cross country ship to face maiden claimers the son of Sharp Azteca seems likely to improve and be competitive.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Morning Addiction; 2-Pens Street; 1-Beachgrass
Backups/savers/Underneath: 8-Lucy L.
Forecast: Morning Addiction returned off a long layoff to obliterate a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 sprinting field at Pleasanton in late June and today drops to the bottom and stretces out to a mile in this $8,000 affair. Anything close to her best can win again, her outside draw notwithstanding, but she’s obviously for sale that indicates her connections believe her long term prospects are shaky. Pens Street closed a gap to be a non-threatening but decent third in a much tougher $16,000 seller over this track and distance last month. At this level – her lowest ever – her best could be good enough at 4-1 on the morning line. Beachgrass won a restricted $10,000 claimer at Pleasanton in good style last month and this drop in class to face open $8,000 foes is reasonable.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Impeachalot; 1-Gantry
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Capital Outlay; 8-Buraq’s Reflection.
Forecast: Impeachalot has trained fairly well – not great, but okay – leading up to his debut and this California-bred son of Sir Prancealot finds a soft spot this five furlong turf dash in which the known element looks ordinary. The barn has average stats with first timers (below average with everything else), so at 7/2 on the morning line he may be difficult to feel confident about, but we’ll put him on top basically by default. Gantry, another son of Sir Prancealot, should receive substantial backing as well. The Ryan Hanson-trained colt has a couple of good gate works on his resume, and we suspect that if he breaks cleanly from the rail he’ll have a strong say in the outcome.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Dos Vicious
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Star Prospect; 6-Post Facto.
Forecast: Northern California invader Dos Vicios looks well-placed to regain his winning form in this $25,000 claiming main track miler restricted to 3-year-olds. A respectable third in an optional ($50,000) claimer at Pleasanton, the Smart Bid gelding is dropping sharply in class but remains well above the $12,500 level that produced his last two wins, so this is where he belongs. He has good tactical speed that should ensure a trouble-free trip and he’s always has been genuine and consistent (three wins, three placings, from nine career starts). Also, his numbers say he’s a fit at this level on this circuit.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Please Focus; 6-Silent Sunday; 4-Rolling On.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Please Focus is a quick turf sprinter taking a class drop to his proper level and will try to outrun this $50,000 claiming field restricted to 3-year-olds. Freshened since mid-June and a perfect one-for-one over this course, the Doug O’Neill-trained sophomore can deal with the early heat and then hold sway with his best effort. Silent Sunday makes his first start on grass – he’s bred for it – and has a right to produce a significant forward move. If he does, the Bay Area invader could make his presence felt late in a race that projects to have stronger than par early splits. Rolling On should be included in your ticket as well. He is a new arrival from Gulfstream Park, is eligible to ship-and-win money, and brings with him speed figures that can be dangerous at this level on this circuit.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Stay and Scam; 8-Evelyn’s Girl
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-She’s Bulletproof.
Forecast: Stay and Scam is lightly raced with upside that most of the others don’t have. A debut winner at Indiana Horseshoe and then missing in a photo in a similar allowance turf dash at Santa Anita in mid-June, the Doug O’Neill-trained daughter of Square Eddie returns to the main track, has worked nicely in the interim, and should produce another forward move. She’s 5/2 on the morning line and will offer good wagering value at or near that price. Evelyn’s Girl doesn’t win very often but usually gets a piece of it. Now in the Gary Stute barn following a $20,000 claim, the daughter of Shaman’s Ghost returns for the same price in this Cal-bred optional claimer, has run well over this track in the past, and with some help up front could be heard from late.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Cane Creek Road; 5-Chasin Munny
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The finale is a restricted $32,000 claimer over a mile that offers a volatile pace scenario that may greatly impact the race flow. Cane Creek Road is a dangerous class dropper but is a need-the-lead type and won’t be waiting around for anybody. If he can clear early without running off, he could take this field gate to wire. Chasin Munny is stretching out for the first time in his third start off the layoff. He is fast enough to impact the chances of Cane Creek Road, but is removing blinkers, so he may be held up early. The son of Munnings is unproven around two turns but if he’s ever going to get the trip it’ll most likely be in his first try. Tough race, play with caution.
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