NOTE: Mandatory payout Pick 6 begins in Race 6 and has a $211,245 carryover.
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Del Mar Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Calabrian Queen; 7-Yolo Calls
Forecast: Calabrian Queen plummets to the bottom rung maiden $20,000 level, tries dirt for the first time, and shows the route-to-sprint angle. The Doug O’Neill-trained daughter of Peace and Justice also lands the cozy outside post while switching to Ramon Vasquez, so she has plenty in her favor and should have every chance to earn her diploma in her eighth career outing. Yolo Calls adds blinkers for the first time and also nosedives into her soft spot to date. Under speed rider Edwin Maldonado, the Peter Eurton-trained filly projects to be on or near the lead throughout.
RACE 2: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Mirinda
Forecast: Mirinda has been entered and scratched a couple of times and finally draws into the body of the field in this maiden special weight sprint for California-bred juvenile fillies. The daughter of Mitole has displayed excellent speed in morning drills, the kind of which is good enough to win a race such as this. The Gary Mandella-trained filly is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and offers good wagering value at or near that price in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
RACE 3: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Derecho Dandy; 3-Mega Moon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Battle Call; 9-Goldeneye.
Forecast: Derecho Dandy is a first-off-the-claim play for trainer Doug O’Neill and is long overdue for a win while being raised from the restricted (nw-2) $32,000 ranks to this starter allowance affair in a sign of confidence. In the frame in his last pair and with speed figures good enough to beat a field in this league, the son of Connect projects to settle in the second flight and have every chance from the quarter pole home. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’ll offer good wagering value. Mega Moon looked good beating maiden $62,5000 foes over this course and distance in late July while earning a career top speed figure. This is a slightly tougher spot and further improvement might be necessary, but the Peter Miller-trained son of Frosted picks up Flavian Prat and is lightly raced with another forward move possible.
RACE 4: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Halone; 4-Ur in Trouble; 3-Sandy Bottom; 1-Nothing Like You.
Forecast: Halone has trained like a decent sort of filly for trainer Bob Baffert and looks extremely live and well-meant in this juvenile dash for maiden fillies. The daughter of Justify probably will do her best eventually over a distance of ground but may be good enough to win at first asking against this group. Ur in Trouble was out of her element when overmatched in the Sorrento Stakes-G3 behind the speedy Dreamfyre but she returns to reality today against maiden juvenile fillies and should bounce back with a good effort. Her strong runner-up effort at this level in her debut two runs back charts well with these, so with two nice breezes since raced, including a sharp half mile gate drill (:47 3/5, seventh fastest of 92) seven days ago the daughter of Maximus Mischief may be the one to fear most. Sandy Bottom has displayed decent speed in morning trials leading up to her debut and should be a live item first time out. From the first crop of Omaha Beach, the Michael McCarthy-trained filly is a “must use” at 7/2 on the morning line. Nothing Like You will need to deal with the rail post position but she removes blinkers for her second career start and most likely has improvement in her after finishing a willing runner-up in what was admittedly moderate heat in her debut last month.
RACE 5: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Ngannou; 2-Sharpazano; 5-Lake Superior
Forecast: Ngannou has displayed excellent speed in the a.m. for trainer Michael McCarthy and is bred for grass on both sides of his pedigree. In a wide open fray, he seems like a live item and should be forwardly placed based on his gate drills. The recently gelded Sharpazano, a close fourth debuting on grass in a five furlong dash last month, stretches out lands a good inside draw. He’ll try gate-to-wire tactics, for sure. Lake Superior brought more than a million dollars at auction last year as a Keeneland yearling and makes his debut two turning on grass for trainer Bob Baffert. The son of Quality Road is a full brother to Stillwater Cove, a stakes winner on grass, so this type of race makes perfect sense. His dirt drills have been moderate at best, but we suspect he’ll perform better on the surface over which he is bred to prefer.
RACE 6: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Windribbon; 2-Let’s Acclimate; 4-Super Chief
Forecast: Windribbon has a win over this track and distance earlier in the meeting and recently ran better than the line will show when third at this level last month. A real pro with in-the-money placings in 18 of 30 career starts, the son of Sway Away likes to settle in the second flight and produce a late kick and will have every opportunity to do just that according to the projected race flow. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli stays aboard, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’ll be offering a reasonable gamble. Let’s Acclimate makes his seconds start off a layoff and should be fitter and tougher today after flashing good zip but weakening late in a grass affair last month. With blinkers being added, there will be no waiting around today, so if the lightly raced gelding can grab control early he could hang around for a long time. His one prior dirt outing resulted in a clever win at Los Alamitos. Super Chief has been sparingly raced but he’s another adding blinkers for the first time and on numbers he’s a solid fit with his best effort.
RACE 7: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Boltage
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none. none.
Forecast: Boltage was quite impressive breaking his maiden over this course and distance last month and anything close to that effort today should be good enough in this year’s edition of the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes-G3. The Richard Mandella-trained son of Bolt d’Oro displayed good tactical speed and sharp acceleration when called upon and accomplished his maiden win like a gold with a very good grass future. He’s listed at 2-1 on the morning line and is likely to go lower as a logical win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Mastering; 2-Devil Be Me; 8-Ghazaaly.
Forecast: Mastering was a winner at this level when trained by Bob Baffert last month and makes his first start off a $40,000 claim by Steve Knapp over the same course and distance. If he can turn in two alike, the son of Street Sense can score right back though regular pilot Juan Hernandez is replaced by Hector Berrios, who, of course, is more than capable. Devil Be Me is slower on numbers than our top pick but is lightly raced and improve and could easily be this good after easily handling state-bred foes last time out at this trip over this main strip. Ghazaaly might be better than his morning line of 15-1 and probably should be tossed in somewhere. He was overmatched and out of his element in the marathon Cougar II Stakes-G3 last time out and before never really threatened on a surface (grass) he may not have cared for. If you go back three races, he’s dangerous.
RACE 9: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Bolden
Forecast: Bolden launches a comeback and if returns as well as he left the Phil D’Amato-trained horse will be able to extend his perfect winning streak to four. Away since June of last year, the son of Square Eddie is extremely fast on figures and his recent workouts indicate he’s in pretty good shape for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and on pure form looks every bit of that.
RACE 10: Post: 6:09 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Prince of Monaco
Forecast: Prince of Monaco seeks his third straight after demolishing his foes in his first two outings, most recently in the Best Pal Stakes-G3 with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure that makes him the fastest juvenile in North America up to this point. He’s destined to leave at 1/5 on the tote and will be unplayable other than a free bingo square in rolling exotic play.
RACE 11: Post: 6:38 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Petcoff; 8-Uncle Oscar; 4- Bye Bye Ray
Forecast: Petcoff stretches out for the first time after three solid turf sprint performances with improving speed figures in each outing. The Tim Yakteen-trained son of Munnings should get the trip and projects to inherit and good second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from there. Uncle Oscar has an improving pattern and seems likely to be dangerous from off the pace. With the switch to Mike Smith, the Dave Hofmans-trained colt seemed primed for a significant forward move. Bye Bye Ray stretches out and tries grass for the first time. The son of Ransom the Moon has rising speed figures and rates a look under these new conditions.