Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 1/1/25
January 1, 2025
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita Park
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Lita Way; 7-Winter Snow.
Backups: none,
Forecast: Lita Way appeared to be going the best of the lot in the late stages when fifth but beaten less than two lengths in a similar turf miler at Del Mar in early November. Maybe she has further improvement in her in this state-bred affair for older fillies and mares, so we’ll give her a slight edge on top, but not with a great deal of enthusiasm. Winter Snow didn’t do a whole lot of running in her dirt sprint debut at Del Mar last summer but was claimed for $50,000 by a capable outfit and is protected upon her return in a sign of confidence. We’ll toss her.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:31 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Oveta’s Hobby.
Backups: none.
Forecast: After breaking her maiden (and getting eligible for this condition) by 12 easy lengths at Los Alamitos, Oveta’s Hobby returns protected in this starter’s $50,000 allowance sprint for newly turned sophomore fillies and is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite. She has an enormous edge in the speed figure department, so anything close to her runaway score at Los Alamitos last month will be more than sufficient, but at a price that will be too short to play.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:01 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Ms. Brightside; 7-Bottle Rocket.
Backups: none.
Forecast: This starter optional claiming grass miler for older fillies and mares has two main players. Ms. Brightside shows up in a seller for the first time and appears properly spotted. She just hasn’t been up to first level allowance competition, but this is a much easier gang, and her speed figures point her out. Bottle Rocket is another making that same class drop and after being freshened since October returns with F. Prat in a field she certainly fits with. We’ll give the former a slight preference – she’s a bit faster on numbers – but both should be included in your rolling exotics.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Love Our Family.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Love Our Family returns to reality in this $16,000 seller for fillies and mares and should be capable of regaining her winning form at this level. She picks up F. Prat, so there will be no excuses. The veteran mare does her best when on or near the lead, and the projected race flow of this race should allow her to be within range throughout. She’s run well over this main track in the past (never off the board in three starts with a win), and nothing else in here inspires, so let’s make her a logical single but at not much less than her 8/5 morning line.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Jeweled Shillelagh; 8-Rastaman Vibe; Zalamo.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Here’s a spread race for starter’s allowance turf milers; we’ll use three and hope that’s sufficient. Jeweled Shillelagh shows consistent speed figures and won’t have to improve at all to handle this field. However, she’s always been a one-paced grinder without acceleration, so her best shot is the make the running or at least gain a stalk and pounce early position. Rastaman Vibe retains top rider J. Hernandez and has form at the level that makes her a solid fit. The main concern is that she’s winless in eight starts over the local lawn. Zalamo is another with speed figures that make her a major player and lands F. Prat. She’s not one to trust but is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:35PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 2-Jubilant Joanie.
Backups: none.
Forecast:Based on speed figures, Jubilant Joanie is a complete standout in this starter optional claiming main track sprint for fillies and mares. A winner of six of 13 career starts, the J. Mullins-trained mare normally is seen around two turns, but this shortened trip has proven to be well within her capabilities. She’s a logical rolling exotic single in a race that offers no real value.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Proof She Zips; 7-Lady Gregory.
Backups: 2-Mirinda.
Forecast: Proof She Zips projects to enjoy a soft trip outside and has shown in the past the ability to stalk and pounce. Solid in the speed figure department and with proven winning form over this grass surface, the daughter of Idiot Proof should fire another big shot. Lady Gregory is most likely the one she’ll have to worry about the most. A real pro from Northern California, the veteran mare is a perfect one-for-one on grass (she won at Santa Rosa) and may be a tad quicker than ‘Zips, though on pure speed numbers she’s a couple of points inferior. They’re tough to separate so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics and be mildly surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Letmein; 5-Mr. Machupicchu; 2-Chasing Ryter.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Maiden state-bred sophomores sprint six furlongs in an unclassified affair with many question marks. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Letmein, runner-up in both of his starts to date, improved his Beyer speed figure by 13 points between his debut and his second start, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the son of Mr. Big step forward again. He should have enough gate speed to secure at least a second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Mr. Machupicchu already has had nine starts, so the evidence is mounting that he lacks a winning punch, but on pure numbers he’s a fit and as a first time Lasix user (as most of these are) he’s eligible to stick around longer than he has been. Chasing Ryer is a first timer for J. Mullins, who’s more than capable of winning with a debut runner. He’s bred to win early (Straight Fire), and while the works don’t jump off the page many of this outfit’s newcomers tend to run better than they work.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:18 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-My Summer Dream; 5-Cane Creek Road; 9-Whatmakessammyrun.
Backups: 6-Inch; 2-Hacking It Up.
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for $25,000 claiming sprinters. Use as many as you can afford to. My Summer DreamCane Creek Road is another course specialist (in the frame in seven of 12 starts with two wins) and projects to settle into a second flight, stalking position. He’s right there with these on his best day. Whatmakessammyrun is a prototype late running grass sprinter and won for $32,000 in late October, then took time off. He returns for $25,000, not a healthy pattern, but he’s a past classer and more than capable of handling this field if he’s feeling up to it. A. Fresu got to know him last time out and stays aboard.
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