Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Santa Anita | Sunday, December 29, 2024

Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Way too Sexy
; 2-Cyprus Moon.
Backups: 7-Spanish Cara.

Forecast: Way too Sexy is a fast-working first time starter for trainer B. Baffert with the stable’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez taking the call, and in a field without another strong main contender she’s certain to receive plenty of play.  An unusually big priced $425,000 yearling purchase by the solid but not particularly marketable sire Flatter, she’s obviously a good-looking individual, and that coupled with Baffert’s remarkable (31%) success with debut runners makes her the likely top pick and one to beat.  That said, in watching her video workouts, she’s not a spectacular type, though she really won’t have to be. Assuming she breaks cleanly from the rail, this late-to-the-party sophomore should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  Cyprus Moon might be better suited on the back-up ticket, though we’ll somewhat reluctantly place her on the top line.  Her numbers aren’t quite par for the level, and she’s always had the nasty habit of losing ground from the furlong pole to the wire.  Her best chance is the clear the field early and hang on late.  


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Santa Anita Race 2:  Post: 12:31 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 5-Style Cat.
Backups
: none.

Forecast: Style Cat looks like a complete stand out on paper – that’s why she’s listed at 3/5 on the morning line – and in this five runner field from her favorable outside draw the daughter of Curlin to Mischief shouldn’t miss this easy chance.  Her recent win at this level was accomplished on grass, which is why she’s eligible to return at the first condition on the main track. She’s a stick out on speed figures, shows two nice breezes at San Luis Rey Downs to tick her over, retains top rider J. Hernandez, and is a logical no value rolling exotic single in a race that might be best left alone.  


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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:01 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Fifth Street
; 5-Bee Eye Gee; 6-Forty Niner Gold.
Backups: 3-Nashoba’s Joy.

Forecast:  This grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 requires as much coverage as you can afford.  Fifth Street looks as good as any.  Runner-up in his last two, most recently with a career top speed figure, he’s realistically spotted in just his second career start on turf, and though he was far back in his first outing on the lawn that race was around two turns against much tougher, so we’ll toss it out.  With the switch to noted speed rider E. Maldonado, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be in the fray throughout.  Bee Eye Gee shows up in a moderate seller for the first time and makes the pivotal jockey switch to F. Prat, so he seems certain to improve.  He shows a prior win sprinting over the local lawn and projects to enjoy a good second flight trip and then have every chance through the lane. Forty Niner Gold, freshened since October, is another that has won over this course and shows numbers that make him competitive at this level.  He lacks a turn of foot, but if he can be within range to the head of the lane he should be able to grind on and be a factor to the end.


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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 9-Bruckner
; 8-Ignatowski; 3-Crone Zone.
Backups: none.  

Forecast: Here’s another messy affair that offers nothing to trust. Bruckner returns at his $20,000 claim level after being culled from the B. Baffert stable when fourth over a mile at Del Mar in just his second career start.  A Justify gelding that originally brought $250,000 as a yearling, he shortens to six furlongs, lands the cozy outside draw, and has little to beat.  His low profile stable doesn’t do half bad with the first off the claim angle, so we’ll give him a slight edge on top but with only a modest amount of confidence. Ignatowski has hit the board in six of 11 career starts and has speed figures that fit, but his distinct lack of tactical speed makes him a hard to embrace.  He’ll be running on late but needs help up front to win.  Crone Zone, away since September, 2023, returns at the bottom with blinkers on, Lasix, and as a first-time gelding.  He didn’t show much of anything during his two start juvenile campaign, but could be a different type now, so we’ll toss him in.  


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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Queen Maxima
; 8-Rascality.
Backups: 1-Ashley; 9-Ang N Ash.

Forecast: This is a strong race for the level, topped by Queen Maxima, a lightly raced filly with improving numbers and an excellent recent runner-up try in a similar first level allowance turf sprint at Del Mar last month.  She’s not a particularly quick type early but gets a bit more ground to work with today and should be along in time under new pilot J. Hernandez.  Rascality has several positive factors in her chart.  Freshened since July, she returns sprinting where she belongs, switches to F. Prat, and shows two recent bullet training track breezes to have her right on edge. The daughter of Into Mischief has won off the bench in the past and graduated over this course and distance by four widening lengths in a career top performance earlier this year. There are others that deserve being included as backups, but these are the two that belong on the main ticket.  


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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Pratchett.
Backups
: none.  

Forecast: Pratchett is lightly raced with further improvement in him and though moving up from open maiden $20,000 to Cal-bred maiden $50,000 lands a very soft spot for the level.  Based on speed figures, the 4-year-old son of Richard’s Kid is the likely choice and one to beat.  The M. Puype-trained gelding was almost six lengths clear of the rest last time out while running a winning race in defeat, so at 8/5 on the morning line in a field without a viable alternative, he’s a logical rolling exotic single.  


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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Artislas
; 8-Precision (GB).
Backups: 2-King of Dragon; 1-Sabertooth.  

Forecast: This competitive edition of the Eddie Logan Stakes has a number of logical contenders; a win by any one of the four listed above wouldn’t be surprising.  Artislas, already a two-time graded stakes winner in his brief four race career, ran better than the line will show when eighth of 14 in a listed affair at Del Mar during Breeders’ Cup week, so that race can be forgiven.  The J. Mullins-trained juvenile had just one of 14 beaten at the head of the lane and simply had too much to do, but he did take hold late and was moving as well as anything in the field in the closing stages.  In today’s eight runner affair, the son of Catalina Cruiser should be much closer to the pace, and with the switch to F. Prat looks capable of producing a winning late kick.  Precision-GB is an intriguing invader from England with a winning race as recent as mid-November.  In that left handed, two turn all-weather affair at Wolverhampton, the English-bred gelding pressed the pace outside in hand, took command when ready and won nicely from a smart, next out winner in what was a fairly strong maiden affair, one that should make him a fit on this circuit.  Frankie will have him within striking range throughout.  


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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Duty Force
Backups
: 1-Tequila Talkin; 2-Stay on the Fence.  

Forecast: Duty Force has been away 11 months after being a voided claim, but he turns protected in a sign of confidence and has numbers from last year that make him a strong fit in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 sprint that came up with an obviously lack of early speed.  It would appear that the son of Smiling Tiger should be more than capable of grabbing control early and dominating throughout with anything close to his best race.  The work tab seems healthy enough to have him fit and ready, so let’s sink or swim with the 9/5 morning line favorite.  


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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:18 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-We the Hobby
; 2-Guiltyofhavingfun; 7-Big Whoosh.
Backups: 9-Sasafran.  

Forecast: There are several possibilities in this maiden juvenile filly turf sprint, so we’ll go three deep on our main ticket and use one as a backup.  Feel free to include more if your budget allows.  We the Hobby, in the frame in her last two in similar state-bred company, switches to F. Prat and that critical jockey move may make the winning difference. However, on pure form, she’s hardly a good thing, hence the need to go deeper.  Guiltyofhavingfun actually finished slightly ahead of ‘Hobby in the same late November turf dash at Del Mar and since it was just her second career start the daughter of Sir Prancealot may have a bit more improvement in her.  She’ll have her chance as the projected inside speed of the field.  Big Whoosh hails from a barn that hardly ever wins with a first timer, but this daughter of Mr. Big has done some good work in morning trials and looks to have enough talent to be a factor first crack out of the box.  She’s an enticing 6-1 on the morning line.  


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