Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 11:30 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Scipio; 1-War to Remember; 2-Paarl.
Backups : 6-Dettori.
Forecast: Scipio was extremely well meant in the Cecil B. DeMille S.-G3 even as a maiden but was victimized by a lack of pace and had little chance to catch loose-on-the-lead Clock Tower (final quarter in :23 flat), still doing well to rally for second into the teeth of the race flow. Back with maidens today, the R. Baltas-trained juvenile should be difficult to contain in a race that at least on paper has sufficient pace to compliment his late-running style. The son of Caravaggio always will be susceptible to slow splits – his lack of tactical speed is concerning – but on pure numbers she’s supposed to beat this field. War to Remember shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, lands the good rail, picks up J. Hernandez, and should have no difficulty transferring his Woodbine all-weather form to grass for new trainer P. Miller. The War of Will gelding almost certainly will employ gate-to-wire tactics and should have every chance in doing so. Paarl, a filly tackling the boys, is quite intriguing at 6-1 on the morning line for price players. After losing her chance with a slow start over five furlongs at Del Mar in her debut in mid-November, the J. Sadler-trained homebred closed a gap without being knocked about to run much better than the line will show, galloped out well, and then has trained quite well in the interim. We’re expecting to see a significant forward move under these conditions.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:01 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 6-Bruiser.
Backups: 4-Bang and a Boom; 7-Begin Again.
Forecast: Here’s a bottom-rung maiden claiming affair written specifically to accommodate Bay Area-stabled runners. Bruiser ran reasonably well in three middle distance affairs at Pleasanton, earning numbers that will be good enough to earn his diploma against this group. Though lacking tactical speed, he should be able to find a way to wear down the leaders. You can use the two back-ups listed above on your ticket for protection if you’re playing rolling exotics, but this is probably a race that might be best left alone.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 12:31 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 4-Stellar Cap.
Backups: 1-Perfect in Gray.
Forecast: Stellar Cap drops to her lowest level ever and may have found her friends, though at her price we’d like to see a bit more separation in the speed figure department than she has. A punchless third at Los Alamitos as the favorite hardly is inspiring, but she rates top billing in a field that doesn’t offer a viable alternative. Tread lightly.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 11-Spearfish.
Backups: 4-Concord Bridge.
Forecast: Spearfish must overcome a poor draw in his first start in a maiden claimer but if he can negotiate a decent enough trip the D. Blacker-trained gelding should be capable of wearing down the leaders close home. He’s earned numbers facing straight maiden types over the local lawn that are sufficient to win at this level, and because he’ll be turning four in a few days this class drop is quite logical. In a race in which the other contenders are totally untrustworthy, his morning line of 3-1 makes him reasonably playable if you can get it but we certainly wouldn’t want to take much less.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-King of Clubs; 3-The G M.; 1-Uncle Chilly.
Backups: 2-Cotton Rosser; 5-Canani.
Forecast: King of Clubs has looked good in the morning leading up to his debut and there are clearly no world beaters in this maiden special weight extended sprint for older California-bred runners, so we’ll put him on top in a race that may require a bit of a spread. The son of Clubhouse Ride will attract money due to the presence of F. Prat in the saddle for a trainer whose first timers usually run better than they work. The G M didn’t run badly in his debut last spring, staying on well to be a close third in a moderate main track miler. He had trained rather well prior to that race and today returns in a sprint, which he might be better suited for. Top rider J. Hernandez stays aboard and a bullet recent five furlong workout (:59.4, fastest of 60) jumps off the page, so ye could easily display improvement. Uncle Chilly has finished in the frame in his last pair against similar foes but his numbers have stagnated, so we doubt he can handle a better than average first timer. He’s not particularly quick leaving the gate nor does he punch it in late, but against this group he has to be given at least some consideration.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Motorious.
Backups: 1-Air Force Red; 9-Sorrento Sky.
Forecast: Motorious, a thoroughly genuine top class grass sprinter, loves the Santa Anita lawn and is equally effective on the flat or, in today’s case, down the Hill. Freshened since narrowly missing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, the veteran gelding has appeared quite sharp in his recent breezes, so there’s every expectation that he’ll fire his usual big shot. We’ve listed him at 5/2 on the morning line but is worth a confident play even at a tick or two lower.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Momad; 6-Bartholdy; 1-Book Smart
Backups: none.
Forecast: This race is likely to be reduced to five starters due to the expected scratch of Gypsy Tears. But it’s a tough affair with at least three of five looking like logical contenders and “must uses.” Momad didn’t get much action (10-1) in his debut – the barn has a reputation of not winning with first timers – but this attractive gelding ran to his promising works with a legitimate score at Del Mar while earning a number that makes him tough right back despite the mandatory class hike. He’s not a quick type and likely will be forced to rally from the second flight, but given the turn of foot that he displayed in his early September victory the son of Nyquist should have every chance with the smooth sailing type of trip that he’s likely to enjoy. Bartholdy is fast on numbers, drawn comfortably outside, and projects to enjoy a soft, pace-stalking journey. He was an impressive winner over this track during the fall season and a repeat of that outing makes him the one to fear most. Book Smart looks to be the quickest in the field from his rail draw and will take them as far as he can. The Stanford gelding hasn’t been out since June and his recent workouts have been average at best (maybe that’s just him) but he does have a history of firing fresh and just might be able to wire the field.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9-Will Then; 5-Supa Speed; 7-Resolve.
Backups: 8-Casalu.
Forecast: Will Then displayed impressive acceleration when circling the pack and then winning the Jimmy Durante S.-G3 at Del Mar against a similarly solid group of juvenile fillies, has trained very well since, and looks quite capable of repeating that performance in this year’s edition of the Blue Norther Stakes. Her numbers have improved considerably in each of her three career starts, so we doubt she’ll be 10-1 again. The extreme outside post is no bargain but she’s likely to drop over, settle off the pace, and then try to find room (or just rally wide) when given her cue midway on the far turn. Supa Speed encountered severe traffic trouble in a strong listed one mile grass stakes for juvenile fillies on Breeders’ Cup weekend at Del Mar and had no chance. Her two prior outings, though, were strong and make her a stout contender today. She significantly switches to F. Prat. Resolve lacked a clear run but then got loose late and finished with good energy when third (beaten three lengths) in the Jimmy Durante. Absolutely, she should have finished closer. The Midnight Lute filly switches to Frankie and is a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 9-Ryan’s Girl; 5-Busy Making Money.
Backups: none.
Forecast: There was a scratch card submitted a few days ago for morning line favorite Expect Love, so without her in the field we’ll have to look elsewhere. Ryan’s Girl should be on or near the lead throughout, and while she did not give too much under pressure in three previous starts she might be able to stick it out against this group. Busy Making Money hit the board in both of her starts up north and those two races make her a fit this level on this circuit. That’s more than you can say about most of the others. We recommend that you don’t get too involved.
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 4:18 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-British Isles; 9-Packs a Wahlop.
Backups: 2-Hurriccane Cloud (GB); 10-Lottery Pick.
Forecast: British Isles never really got involved but actually ran okay when sixth beaten just more than three lengths in the much stronger Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar last month. With this return to the first level allowance ranks the son of Justify should have every chance to regain his winning form. Despite tackling older rivals today, the sophomore gelding has numbers that fit but it just 1-for-13 lifetime, so to be safe you have to spread fairly deep. Packs a Wahlop drops to his lowest level ever – it’s about time as he hasn’t won a race since his juvenile season – but based on his recent numbers this is a group he can be highly competitive with. He’s won over the local lawn in the past and projects to be within striking range of the lead every step of the way. We’ve listed a couple of backups to consider; best advice is to include as many as you can afford to.
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