Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-The Old Nine
Backups: 1-Unbreakable Trust.
Forecast: The Old Nine just broke his maiden for $50,000 over this course and distance last time out and is realistically spotted for a repeat in this $25,000 non-winners of two affair. Numbers-wise he’s a strong fit and his good stalking style should ensure a trouble-free journey. U. Rispoli stays aboard and knows him well.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Goodnight Nellie
Backups: 1-Maniea.
Forecast: Goodnight Nellie graduated at first asking in a maiden $50,000 dirt sprint and was visually pleasing in doing so. She’s logically protected in starter’s allowance company today, lands the cozy outside post, and seems perfectly spotted for a repeat score for a high percentage outfit. On pure numbers she might have to step it up a bit but with an extra half furlong to work with the daughter of Lord Nelson should be along in time.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Big Bet; 2-Fast Service.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Big Bet stretches out to a mile and looks nicely spotted for a major effort in this modest $5,000 seller for older horses. He’s probably most effective around two turns and should draft into a comfortable stalking position. Fast Service, a solid runner-up in the same race our top pick just finished third in, is the one to fear most and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Aggro; 5-Wishful Winker.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Aggro and Wishful Winker are hard to separate, so we’ll include both on our top line. The former is a fast-on-figures first-off-the-claim for S. Knapp (a good 18% with the angle but off J. Mullins, so there’s no guarantees) while the latter is lightly raced with steadily improving numbers and likely capable of producing another forward move. He’s exiting three sprints and projects to be on or near the lead throughout.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Favor to You; 1-Prime and Ready.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Favor to You didn’t get the best of runs when graduating over this course and distance in mid-April and with another forward move the lightly raced filly can handle the one level raise in class. Drawn nicely outside, the P. D’Amato-trained sophomore lacks tactical speed but appears to be a prototype late-running sprinter so with some help up front can tag the speed close home. Prime and Ready is a genuine and consistent sort with two prior wins over the local lawn and solid numbers for the level. She’s listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite and logically so.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Far Over Loaded; 1-Master Jacques.
Backups: 3-Pax a Punch.
Forecast: Far Out Loaded has hit the board in three of his last four starts and is overdue for a win in this low level maiden $8,000 claiming affair. The barn doesn’t inspire confidence but on pure form this grinder is as good as any. Master Jacques is intriguing. He’s a first-time gelding dropping to his lowest level ever and has numbers that fit. He’s not a quick sort and the rail is a concern but a little will go a long way against this group. Tread lightly or spread deeply.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Beef Winslow
Backups: 3-Heart Headed.
Forecast: Beef Winslow has returned to good form for the high percentage M. Glatt outfit and with clear sailing today should be able to produce a winning late kick. He’s a three time winner over the local lawn with recent speed figures that make him the one to beat, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and strong push in the various rolling exotics.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Princess Del Tigre; 2-Smile Baby Smile.
Backups: 4-Dorine’s Wild Cat.
Forecast: Here’s a wide open affair that demands a bit of coverage in rolling exotic play. Princess Del Tigre made the running and then weakened late in a similar first level allowance turf miler; today on the main track we’d like to see patient tactics employed. The T. McCanna-trained mare switches to K. Kimura and should be capable of dropping over early and then being produced late. Smile Baby Smile exits a series of solid efforts at the level and should fire another good shot. First or second in seven of 16 career starts, the A. Mathis-trained daughter of Smiling Tiger is another that might be most effective if held up early.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Burning Rubber; 5-Adebayo; 3-Brother Tony.
Backups: 6-My Hero; 8-Bazooka Charlie.
Forecast: This messy maiden claimer offers a number of possibilities, so we suggest you spread as deeply as your budget allows. Burning Rubber has rapidly improving speed figures, and with continued improvement could spring a mild surprise in this maiden $50,000 turf miler for older horses. The Flameway colt projects to be within striking range throughout and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Adebayo just finished first in a lesser maiden claiming affair but got disqualified. Though (in a sign of confidence) he’s being raised from $20,000 to $50,000, he’s a fit on numbers and should be quite competitive despite his 12-1 morning line. This will be his second start off a layoff and his grass form from last year wasn’t half bad. Brother Tony is re-equipped with blinkers and is a first time gelding while dropping from straight maiden company, so there are several reasons to expect improvement. He's been a money burner and certainly not one to trust but against this group he’s a solid contender.
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