Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10-Finners Goldnsense; 6-Rhino.
Backups/savers: 5-Ghostly Act.
Forecast: Finners Goldnsense shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern along with the blinkers off angle and a switch to top rider J. Hernandez, so we’re expecting considerable improvement from the son of Goldencents in a lackluster affair restricted to California-bred runners. The outside draw is no bargain, but the others are pretty much exposed while this colt is lightly raced with room for a bit of upside that the others don’t have. Rhino is a notorious money burner (he’s been a beaten favorite in four of five career starts) but the Texas Ryano gelding returns to grass and has numbers over this course and distance that puts him right there.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Beer Money
Backups/savers: 2-Eight Clap.
Forecast:Beer Money finished a solid third in a starter optional claiming turf sprint a couple of weeks ago and today returns in a $32,000 claiming dirt dash, a move that almost seems like his connections are trying to cull him from the stable. In the frame in eight of 10 career starts and with two prior main track outings that were quite good, the son of Dads Caps will outrun his four rivals if he has at least one good race left.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Teen Drama; 2-A Real Jewel; 4-Aventapp
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This bunch finished in a heap the last time they saw each other, and the group meets again in a turf sprint that is carded at three sixteenths of a mile farther. Any one of the three listed above can win, so triple the race in your rolling exotics and hope to get the best price home, Teen Drama, first off the claim for R. Ellis (strong stats with a limited sample size for this angle), should benefit from the longer journey after finishing third, beaten a half-length, last time out. Closers generally do well over the local lawn at this extended sprint distance, but while ‘Drama can kick it in late she also has enough tactical speed to always be within striking range and then have her chance close home. A Real Jewel, nosed out when waiver protected in the same race ‘Drama exits, was making her first start on turf at age six and ran quite well to narrowly miss. Not much more will be needed today, assuming she doesn’t bounce following what had to be a taxing effort in her first outing in a year. Aventapp is a four time winner over this turf course but was a bit lucky to secure racing room in deep stretch before getting her nose down right on the money in that common race May 18 with the other main players in today’s affair. She should give a similar performance today, so we have to include her on the main ticket.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:39 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: The GM
Backups/Savers: 1-J Dutton.
Forecast: It’s never easy to win first time out around two turns on dirt but the debuting The GM has done some excellent work for trainer M. Puype and looks plenty fit and ready for a major effort in this California-bred main track miler. The pedigree suggests he’ll handle the distance just fine, and his drills – strong and steady in nature – indicate sufficient ability to handle this moderate assignment. Let’s make him win and rolling exotic play while also including the two other major players in the field on a backup ticket.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Marinas Tina (Ire); 4-Weemissgrammy
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Marinas Tina (Ire) drops to the $32,000 claiming ranks after hitting the board without winning in three recent starter allowance grass milers that produced solid speed figures, so we wouldn’t be surprised if she regains her winning form while possibly changing barns via a claim, She’s been a beaten choice in her last two outings but either one of those two races, if repeated today, should be good enough. Wemissgrammy was used on the pace before fading late in the same race our top pick exits. Perhaps patient tactics will produce better results.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket:8-Top Gun Tommy; 4-Idaho Once
Backups/savers: 1-Left Hand Man.
Forecast: Top Gun Tommy just dismantled a $25,000 claiming field for his fourth victory from his last six starts but was voided claim, so there’s a question of condition. However, he returns in his first start since late April while being boosted to the $50,000 level, so his connections must feel he’s okay, and based on speed figures is fast enough to win at this level. From his cozy outside draw at this extended sprint distance, the son of Mineshaft is guaranteed a soft, stalking or pace pressing trip and have every chance from there. Bay Area based Idaho Once earned a career top speed figure when a close second at this level on turf last month. He was an easy winner in his only prior start over conventional dirt and projects as the controlling speed in a field that lacks early zip. Two nice breezes since raced should have ready for a major effort.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Zoffarelli
Backups/savers: 3-Daniel’s Magic; 4-Lovesick Blues.
Forecast: Zoffarelli (Ire) got away with a very soft opening quarter when winning a downhill dash at this level in mid-April and returns at the same optional $80,000 claiming category while switching to the flat course and shortening up a half furlong. It looks like once again this race has no real early zip, so the same result might be expected. The Irish-bred gelding earned a career top figure in victory and given the pace flow, offers a reasonable gamble to do it again.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:46 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: 2-Lyell’s Song
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Lyell’s Song crossed the wire first in his debut last month but had his number taken down after bumping and impeding the runner-up in the shadow of the sire. It was the correct call since the margin was about three inches. Let’s hope the son of Cairo Prince runs straight and true today and if he does he’ll likely graduate as a short priced as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 6-Cali Bay (Ire); 3-The Giants Candy; 4-Giovinazzo
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Cali Bay (Ire) is a genuine and consistent middle distance turf claimer with a consistent form (first or second in seven for 16 career starts). A two time winner over the local lawn, the P. D’Amato-trained Irish-bred gelding hit the front but was swallowed up late to be the fourth nose on the wire in a tougher spot down the Hillside Course last time last time out.. He won’t need much more to regain his winning form today. The Giants Candy blew out a much softer restricted $25,000 claiming field in a fast dash over the flat course in mid-April in what was by far a career top performance. If he can make the running without pressure, the R. McAnally-trained homebred will take the field a very long way. Giovinazzo, first off the claim for $40,000 by J. Sadler, projects to employ stalking tactics and though slightly shy of where he needs to be on speed figures can be dangerous if he can produce just a small forward move.
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