Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Annie’s Joy; 7-Free and Humble.
Backups: none.
Forecast This turf sprint restricted (nw-3) to $30,000 claiming fillies and mares lacks pace, and that should promote the chances of Annie’s Joy. She shows the always popular blinkers off angle, lands the rail, and projects to be close up throughout and have every chance due to the soft pace flow. The switch to J. Hernandez doesn’t hurt, either. Free and Humble seems likely to fold over into a good second flight, stalking position from her outside draw and have dead aim from the quarter pole home. True, she’s never been big on winning, but none of these are.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 5-Desert Gate
Backups: none.
Forecast: Desert Gate was highly impressive previewing at the OBS March Sale (:09 4/5) and has looked the part in his local drills since joining B. Baffert’s main string. The son of Omaha Beach is comfortably drawn outside and seems likely to go lower than his 6/5 morning line.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 5-Be Punctual; 5-Fireman Dan
Backups: 2-Mongolian Max.
Forecast: Here’s a real scramble in which nothing would surprise us (hence the “C” grade). Use as many as your budget allows. Be Punctual seems as good as any. In the frame in three of his five starts over the local main track and with early speed that he can be put to good use, the son of I’ll Have Another is reunited with “win” ride K. Frey and projects to be in the fray throughout. Fireman Dan just missed at 18-1 in a similar event over this track and distance and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a strong factor in the final furlong.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-My Bucket List
Backups: none.
Forecast: My Bucket List seems well-spotted for a major effort. A beaten choice two runs back and then victimized by a poor start at Los Alamitos in his most recent outing, the Sky Mesa gelding returns to his claim level and has back races that would be more than good enough to win. He knows where the wire is, has won over this track in the past, and should offer reasonable value at or near his morning line of 9/2.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Spotted Haze ; 9-Ellen Jorth
Backups: 8-Hurricane Layla.
Forecast: Spotted Haze may have a slight edge in the early speed department and projects to be a strong factor from gate to wire in this first level allowance grass dash for state-bred sophomore fillies. Fresh from a career top effort when winning a starter’s allowance affair on the main track, the daughter of Stanford returns to grass and ran well when second over this course and distance two runs back. She’s reunited with “win” rider J. Hernandez and shows a healthy series of workouts since raced. We’re expecting another forward move. Ellen Jorth displayed a bit of quality when graduating over the local lawn in her debut last month. She’s back a little quick for our liking but is fast on numbers and projects to enjoy a soft trip outside.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3-Stellar Cap; 4-Putt for Dough.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Stellar Cap drops to her lowest level ever and appears to have found her friends. A repeat of her strong runner-up effort in a slightly tougher spot two races back should be good enough to handle this $8,000 claiming assignment, especially at this abbreviated sprint distance. Putt for Dough is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, is a fit on numbers, and is the one fear most. This is a realistic spot for the class dropping daughter of Nyquist.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Game Warrior; 10-Muscled.
Backups: 1-Lyle the Crocodile.
Forecast: Game Warrior removes blinkers, adds Lasix, exits a series of tougher stakes races, and picks up J. Hernandez. He’s fast enough on numbers to beat this field and projects to draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position. Muscled, a first time gelding, must overcome the extreme outside draw but if he can secure a decent trip the P. Gallagher-trained sophomore should have a strong say in the matter. He may be most effective if taken back early and allowed to produce one late kick.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Hejazi; 2-Eagles Flight.
Backups: 4-Mbagnick (Chi).
Forecast: Hejazi has trained like he’s fit and ready, but he’s never been one to be completely straightforward, so we’re not sure if we trust him. The B. Baffert-trained son of Bernardini has some superior back form (was second in the 2023 Malibu S.-G1) but has been beaten four times as the favorite in nine career starts. Eagles Flight may be cut from the same cloth. A well-beaten third at 2/5 last time out, Flightline’s half-brother shortens to a sprint and may be most comfortable around one turn. He continues to train like a high class prospect; however, it is difficult to say if he’s genuine.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9-Video Review ; 5-Tees Touch (GB)
Backups: 4-War to Remember.
Forecast: Video Review shows up in a seller for the first time, removes blinkers, adds Lasix, and is a first time gelding. At least one of these significant alternations should have a positive impact, maybe all four. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble, especially when you add to the mix his recent sharp workouts. Tees Touch (GB) ran quite well when second in his U.S. debut a year ago May facing straight maiden company but then disappeared. He returns in a logical spot with a work tab at Los Alamitos that should have him plenty fit. Based strictly on numbers, the P. D’Amato-trained import is the one to beat.
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