Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2-Cultural; 9-Empire Warrior; 8-Toppers At Seaside
Backups: 6-Chasin a Dollar; 3-Exalted Ruler; 7-Canyahearmeknockin
Forecast: The opener is an inscrutable maiden $32,000 claiming sprint for newly turned 3-year-olds that requires as much coverage as your budget will allow. Cultural, purchased for $155,00 at the 2024 OBS April Sale where in the preview session he smoked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds (and looked terrific doing so), apparently is being culled from the stable before he’s even made his first start despite producing two recent bullet drills at San Luis Rey Downs. Obviously, this is a big red flag, but if the son of Volatile has at least one good race in him he should have enough natural talent to outrun bottom rung foes (or maybe not). Remember, nobody ever gives anything away in this sport. Empire Warrior drops a level, removes blinkers, lands the cozy outside post, adds Lasix (as they all do now that they’ve turned three) and may be the quickest in the field. If he doesn’t straighten the turn (as he’s done in his first two races), the R. Baltas-trained gelding could prove elusive. Toppers At Seaside already has had five starts and is what he is. The Bob Hess, Jr.-trained colt turns back from a mile and fits on speed figures, though he’s hardly trustworthy.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 1-Just as Fancy
Backups: 3-Marula
Forecast: We love the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for Just as Fancy in this main track maiden miler for sophomore fillies. The daughter of Volatile exits two highly rated and productive sprints, draws the good rail, adds blinkers, runs for the first time with Lasix, picks up F. Prat, and projects to be the controlling speed. Also, she produced a nine point Beyer speed figure improvement in her second race and should continue to step forward with age and experience. Simply put, she’s our kind of play.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3-Thirst for Passion.
Backups: 7-Have Patience, 6-Practical Dazzle.
Forecast: We’ll assume the switch to F. Prat will greatly benefit Thirst for Passion is this maiden turf sprint for older fillies and mares, and the return to grass certainly won’t hurt, either. Two races back the daughter of Stay Thirsty stayed on willingly to finish second in a similar affair at Del Mar over five furlongs and today’s extra distance should complement her second flight, stalking style. We’ll include a couple of others on a backup ticket for protection, but ‘Passion will receive the majority of the play.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Halo Rando; 1-Horse Doctor.
Backups: 10-Imperial Hornet
Forecast: This competitive starter’s $8,000 allowance dash was carded for Northern California-based runners; in fact, each of the 12 entrants made their last start at Pleasanton and eight of the 12 hit the board in their most recent outing. Halo Rando and Horse Doctor look on paper to be the best of the lot. We’ll give ‘Rando a slight edge strictly due to the presence of F. Prat, a nice recent breeze since raced, and the trainer change to D. Pederson, though on pure numbers ‘Doctor appears a bit faster but must overcome the rail and has never been particularly quick leaving the gate. This is another race in which nothing would surprises us, so tread lightly.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Nell’s Legacy; 6-Heras Hope.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Although she was beaten at 4/5 in a similar affair on dirt last month at Del Mar, Nell’s Legacy didn’t run badly at all, as she finished full of run but simply too late after a less than ideal trip. Her previous four length-plus debut win on grass last summer was visually pleasing, so we suspect with this return to turf, the extra half furlong, and the switch to F. Prat will allow her to make amends. Heras Hope didn’t beat this kind when breaking her maiden last month at Pleasanton but she owns a rather significant edge in the speed figure department when compared to our top pick, so we’ll also put her on the top line. There’s no reason she won’t like grass, and she’ll most likely employ the same type of stalk, pounce, and go trip that worked for her up north. While we’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, Going Deep has plenty of zip, exits a hot sprint stakes in New Mexico, and could be dangerous if she takes to the turf, so at least include her somewhere as a backup.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Tesoro; 1-Nolde; 6-Brother o’ Brien.
Backups: 5-Upstart Yankee; 8- Rich Gold.
Forecast: Here’s another one of those NorCal-only events, which have filled quite nicely early in the meeting. Glad to have ‘em, though it may take a while to get familiar with these shippers. Tesoro is the best in the field on paper, if healthy. The veteran gelding plummets in class despite solid recent form and consistent speed figures, but if he’s got at least one good one left he should handle this assignment. Today’s two-turn main track trip utilizing a pace pressing/stalking strategy always has brought out his best. Nolde picks up. F. Prat so he’s likely to receive a bit more play than he deserves (but for good reason). He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, so with some help up front he should be heard from in the final stages. Brother o’ Brie has hit the board in nine of 12 career starts (with four wins) and hails from a high percentage outfit. You have to include him in what clearly is a spread affair.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8-Miz Clubcali; 7-Lady Monclaire.
Backups: 5-Shezmisbehaving.
Forecast: Miz Clubcali sprung a 24-1 surprise sprinting on dirt at Del Mar last time out, but despite the big price there was nothing flukish about it. The daughter of Clubhouse Ride earned by far a career top speed figure while continuing her improving pattern and did so by quickening through traffic from the quarter pole home while benefitting from the patient ride that she requires. And although she is stretching out today to a mile and switching to grass, that’s okay because the A. Garcia-trained filly has won under these conditions in the past. Therefore, a repeat score is entirely possible, especially because the surface switch allows her to return at the same condition. Lady Monclaire lands F. Prat while showing the always popular blinkers off angle. Freshened for two months with a healthy recent work tab, the R. Baltas-trained filly could be set for significant forward move, especially if she switches off early.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 7-Roll On Big Joe; 4-For All Mankind; 1-Moose Mitchell
Backups: 2-Agency; 5-Positivity.
Forecast: We’ll go three deep on our main ticket but none of them have to win, so a spread strategy is the best way to go. Roll On Big Joe is solid on numbers and is drawn nicely outside but he’s always been susceptible under pressure from the eighth pole to the wire. Given his draw, he might be held up early (and he’s won doing that in the past), so we’ll put him slightly on top while recognizing that at 2-1 on the morning line he won’t be offering as much wagering value as a horse like him should. For All Mankind is back with “win rider” J. Hernandez and has looked quite sharp in his recent breezes but he’s really disappointed in his last three races, so he’s hardly trustworthy. Who knows what version we’ll see today. Moose Mitchell – assuming he breaks well – may be the quickest in the field from his rail draw. He’s been off form for a long time, but this always has been his favorite track, so maybe he’ll perk up.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 2-Burning Rubber
Backups: 1-Max n’ Lou; 4-Earned Not Given.
Forecast: Burning Rubber offers an excellent gamble in the nightcap. He was used hard sprinting inside in a hot race in his debut and understandably faded to finish far back but based on what we’ve seen of him in the morning the son of Flameaway will be much better around two turns and especially so on grass, for which he is bred to like. The pace projection of this much softer maiden $50,000 field will be entirely different and could very well enable the S. McCarthy-trained sophomore to inherit the role as the controlling speed. Given that type of trip and following a bullet half mile breeze (:47 2/5) that was fastest of 55, he could easily dominate this bunch as a strong win play and major push in the various exotics.
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