NOTE: $77,347 pick 6 carryover awaits on Races 5-10
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Holly Goquickly
Backups: 8-Inner Fury (Ire).
Forecast: You can draw a line through Holly Goquickly’s last race – she was eliminated when attempting to rally at the quarter pole after appearing to clip heels - and key off her solid third race effort at this level two runs back. She gets an extra furlong to work with today and should be along in time under J. Hernandez and will get the bulk of our play in the rolling exotics in this modest maiden $50,000 claimer for older fillies and mares.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Rank; 2-Concorde Bridge
Backups: 6-War to Remember.
Forecast: Rank is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this maiden optional claiming extended sprint, and while he’s had a lot of chances and isn’t one to trust, the turn back to a sprint might be what he’s always been looking for. If he can’t beat this field under these conditions, he’s off our list for good. Concorde Bridge has numbers that fit and a good second flight style for this extended sprint distance. He’s a one-paced griding type but in a soft field he has to be considered something of a contender.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1-Fionello
Backups: none.
Forecast: Fionello was bid up $250,000 at auction as a yearling and debuts in a very soft maiden state-bred sprint for juveniles. The son of Stay Thirsty has done some very good work leading up to his debut and almost certainly will be an odds-on favorite and very likely winner in a field without any serious alternatives.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Mrs. Astor; 5-Starry Heavens
Backups: 3-Mahina.
Forecast: Mrs. Astor finished eagerly without seriously challenging when second in the Santa Ana S.-G3 over 10 furlongs on this course last time out but at this marathon distance against a lesser field the J. Thomas-trained mare should be able get up in time. It what projects to be a slowly run race, the daughter of Lookin At Lucky can settle in the second flight and then accelerate when given her cue. Starry Heavens, a reasonable third in her U.S. debut in the same race our top pick exits, certainly has a right to improve and probably is the one to be concerned about the most.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Western Freedom
Backups: 7-Letmein.
Forecast: Western Freedom looked good graduating under hand urging only in his second career start and earned a number that should be sufficient to repeat on the raise in this first level abbreviated sprint for state-bred sophomores. He’s a not a particularly quick type but should be able to settle into a stalking position and then have every chance from there as a logical rolling exotic single.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10-Rexford; 3-Yogi Boy.
Backups: 7-Known Idea.
Forecast: Rexford has been facing tougher foes of late without a whole lot of success so this drop into the restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claiming ranks is warranted. Freshened since February, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding has won over this course in the past, is solid on numbers, and should be capable of producing a winning late kick from the second flight. Yogi Boy is in good form and is realistically spotted after a clever win from starter’s foes over this course and distance. He'll need a bit of improvement in the speed figure department but might have it in him.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Chasing Ryder; 8-What the Buzz.
Backups: 10-El Ondeado; 11-My Pal George.
Forecast: Here’s a messy affair for low level maiden claimers. We’ll double the race on our main ticket but suggest you go deeper if you feel the need. Chasing Ryder plummets from straight maiden to maiden $12,500 for the high percentage J. Mullins barn and adds blinkers while stretching out for the first time. He’ll get plenty of play by default. What’s the Buzz is bit intriguing at 5-1 on the morning line. His runner-up effort in Phoenix last month charts pretty well at this level and before that he was overmatched facing tougher on grass on this circuit. This looks like a reasonable spot, though his low profile outfit hardly inspires confidence.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Exultation; 2-Vantastic.
Backups: 6-Ottoman Prince.
Forecast: Exultation is an ex-classer moving up a notch following a confidence-building $25,000 claiming win over this course and distance in January, and while the layoff is a concern the work tab looks healthy so we’re expecting his typical genuine effort. From the rail, he’s guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip under regular pilot J. Hernandez. Vantastic is a seven time winner over the local lawn and is a strong it at this level. He’s a one-paced grinder who always tries hard but sometimes can be a bit pace dependent.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Traegar
Backups: 1-Judge Miller.
Forecast: Traegar has been off since November, but he’s won fresh in the past, is fast on figures, and hails from a high percentage barn that sends them fit and spots them right. The lightly raced six-year-old always fights hard when challenged and can be counted on to take advantage of a moderate pace scenario that should promote his pace pressing style. We’ll make him a win play at or near his morning line of 3-1 and a major push in our rolling exotics.
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Blevys Tiger; 3-Big Pop.
Backups: 10-Blue Wildcat.
Forecast: Blevys Tiger was nosed in a downhill turf dash at this level last month and will be tough to beat if she can duplicate that effort on the flat course. This will be her second start off a layoff, and if she doesn’t go backwards she’ll be a major factor throughout. Big Pop is soft in the speed figure department, but she’s lightly raced and eligible to improve with experience for the high percentage M. Glatt barn. She could easily step forward in a big way today after winning at this level on dirt last time out.
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