N
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Dealers Special; 5- El Rey Rey; 9-Navajo Warrior
Backups: 10-Brave Blend; 1-Big Juanito; 4-Spearfish.
Forecast: The Saturday opener is an inscrutable starter optional claimer for older horses over nine furlongs on grass that requires as much coverage as your budget allows. A case can be made for almost every entrant in the field. Dealers Special was favored in a similar affair last month but wound up seventh after an impossible trip when wide throughout losing as much ground as he was beaten by. He’s reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli and hopefully this time the R. Baltas-trained gelding can drop over, get cover, save ground, and then have room to rally when given his cue. El Rey Rey has had trip issues of late that has darkened his form but offers a reasonable chance at a price if he can reproduce his best effort. The J. Mullins-trained gelding can turn it on late if the race shape breaks his way. Navajo Warrior, off since Halloween, returns protected and earned a number in his maiden claiming win that makes him a solid fit at this level. The work tab is solid and should have him plenty fit, and if he can duplicate his dirt form in his first try on grass the T. Yakteen-trained gelding will have a reasonable look at it.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:28 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Stan From Malibu
Backups: 2-Cody Boy.
Forecast: Based on his most recent outing – a career top tough beat runner-up by a neck while more than five clear of the rest in a similar restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer last month – Stan From Malibu should outrun this field. Clearly the controlling speed in a field with nothing but sluggish types, the son of Stanford appears to prefer the Santa Anita main track, and assuming he breaks cleanly can take control early at this abbreviated sprint trip and never look back. We’ll use Cody Boy on a backup ticket just in case our top pick fails to fire, but the bulk of action must go to the C. Gaines-trained gelding.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 12:57 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 3-Kopion
Backups: none.
Forecast: Kopion was visually quite pleasing winning the La Brea S.-G1 on opening day while remaining undefeated in three starts around one turn, two of which came over this track and distance, including last year’s Santa Ynez S.-G3. The pace in this seven furlong affair shouldn’t be terribly intense, and this daughter of Omaha Beach is plenty quick but not a need the lead type, making her impervious to the race flow. Her workouts in the interim have been sharp, just as impressive as they were before the La Brea and based on pure numbers she’s fast enough to win right back. While each of her challengers have positive factors in their chart that make them quite dangerous, a small field of only four entrants requires us to take a stand, and she’s it.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:28 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Rodriquez
Backups: none.
Forecast: Similar to the Santa Monica S.-G3 30 minutes earlier, this race has just four starters (actually five but we’re not counting the hopelessly overmatched Valentines Candy), so from a wagering stand point we are required to zero in on a top pick or simply pass the race. Let’s go with Rodriguez, a maiden winner taking on his Eclipse Award winning stable mate and logical favorite Citizen Bull. From the first crop of Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, the B. Baffert trained colt finished second sprinting in his debut at Del Mar and then improved his Beyer Speed figure 22 points when graduating by seven widening lengths over this track and distance four weeks ago. Based on the projected race flow, J. Hernandez is more likely to employ a stalk-and-pounce strategy rather than gun for the lead, and in doing so his connections can find out if that type of trip will be viable down the road. With two very sharp breezes in the interim (visually more impressive than Citizen Bull’s), he may have more upside at this stage of his career.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Word Play; 1-Source.
Backups: 6-Runamileinmyshoes; 7-Miss Roberts. 10-Mysticism.
Forecast: There should be enough pace signed on to compliment a closer, and Word Play (GB) should fit that role nicely in this first level allowance downhill turf dash for fillies and mares. The route-to-sprint angle is highly effective in these slalom events, and after three outings going a mile last fall the daughter of the high class stallion Saxon Warrior looks capable of rolling off the Hill and tagging the leaders close home. We’re not sure what effect the addition of blinkers will have but the race shape certainly should aid her cause. Three easy training track breezes since her most recent start on opening day should tick her over nicely. Florida invader Source, seeking valuable ship-and-win, also is turning back in trip and brings speed figures that aren’t quite good enough to beat this field but are close. She’s never actually sprinted – she won her debut in France at slightly shorter than mile and has run long in five subsequent starts – but lands top rider J. Hernandez and should be heard from late.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Rashmi; 3-Sareeha (Ire).
Backups: 5-Mahina.
Forecast: Rashmi, victimized in the American Oaks-G1 on opening day, returns in much easier spot after finishing fourth (beaten six lengths) behind legitimate Grade-1 performer She Feels Pretty. She simply was given too much to do after losing valuable early position due to her poor outside draw, and under the circumstances she lost little in defeat. Today, from the comfortable number four post position, she’ll be able to dictate her trip under Frankie, who has won with her in the past. Sareeha (Ire), claimed by M. Glatt for $25,000 in November at Del Mar, has improved dramatically (as many do) since joining this stable and is seeking valuable black type in this graded stakes over a mile on turf. She’s a versatile sort that can win on the front or from mid-pack, so new pilot A. Fresu (who takes over for out-of-town regular pilot F. Prat) has the luxury of playing the break and assessing the race flow. Two easy half mile recent breezes should have her primed for another major effort.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 5-Pilot Commander
Backups: none.
Forecast: Pilot Commander removes blinkers after setting the pace before weakening in the final furlong when finishing fourth (beaten just over two lengths behind Raging Torrent) in the opening day Malibu S.-G1, a performance that earned him a career top Beyer Speed figure (100) that makes him a standout in this second level allowance group. The pace projection looks comfortable, and a bullet recent breeze (5f, :59h) jumps off the page, so this B. Baffert-trained son of Justify is certain to be an extremely short price as a logical, no value, rolling exotic single.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Seal Team; 7-El Potente; 2-Air Force Red.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Seal Team (GB) is hung outside in post nine just as he was when finishing a close third in the San Gabriel S.-G2 behind Johannes, and there’s no horse quite that good in this year’s renewal of the Thunder Road S.-G3, so if he can work out some type of decent trip (meaning dropping over a getting some cover) the son of War Front can return to the winner’s circle for the first time since winning the Twilight Derby-G2 in the fall of 2023. His most recent outing produced a career top 99 Beyer speed figure and anything close to that today should be good enough. “Win Rider” U. Rispoli knows him well and should have the R. Mandella-trained son of War Front doing his best work close home. El Potente didn’t beat a field anywhere this strong when winning a fast allowance race over this course and distance last month but he’s definitely on the upgrade and could easily produce another significant forward move based on his current improving form. He’ll be prominent throughout and if the pace turns up on the soft side he should be able to stick around a long time. Air Force Red missed last week’s off-the-turf Clocker’s Corner S. but returns a week later and projects to have a strong pace presence. If he becomes the controlling speed – that’s the trip J. Hernandez most likely will seek – he should take this field a long way.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Berlin Wall; 6-Letmein
Backups: 9-Chasing Ryter.
Forecast: Berlin Wall was best when third in his debut against a similar maiden special weight sophomore state-bred field on New Year’s Day but today – assuming he breaks with his field – the son of Practical Joke should be along in time. The S. Knapp-trained sophomore broke poorly from the rail to lose his best chance but then closed resolutely to be beaten less than two lengths, and from a barn that has powerful stats with the second time starter angle he’s the logical top pick. Letmein, second in the same race our top pick exits, ran quite well in his own right, and with rising speed figures and adding blinkers Mr. Big gelding also should continue to step forward.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Ciro du Marzio ; 6-Jeweled Shillelagh
Backups: 9-Heart Headed; 11-Call Sign Seven.
Forecast: Ciro du Marzio was a bit keen early but otherwise enjoyed an ideal ground-saving trip in his promising U.S. debut at Del Mar in late November when hitting the front in the final furlong before being worn down in a legitimate race for the first level allowance competition. He shows a healthy work pattern in the interim, so we’ll assume the Justify gelding will improve in his second local start for W. Ward. Jeweled Shillelagh employed good stalking tactics in winning a restricted allowance affair over this course and distance last month, earning a career top Beyer number (85) that makes him a fit in this league. A similar trip is protected today, and the weight off due to the presence of bug boy Carmona won’t hurt. It may be significant that “win rider” U. Rispoli opts for the other M. McCarthy-entrant Call Sign Seas, who’s a bit slower on figures than ‘Shillelagh and is marooned in the 11-hole but is lightly raced, exits a graded stakes, and may have more upside than our top pick.
______________________________________________________________________________
.svg){kind=logo}
