Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Ridegold
Backups: 2-We the Hobby.
Forecast: Ridegold stretches out to a mile for the first time, lands the good rail, and seems likely to be the controlling speed. Her pedigree suggests the trip should be well within her range, so at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the daughter of Clubhouse Ride looks like a logical rolling exotic single.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Final Table Lady; 5-Shady Stripes; 6-Liberation.
Backups: 1-That Ain’t Right.
Forecast: An unclassified field of juvenile state-bred fillies makes today’s second race a bit of a guessing game, so we’ll spread the race and hope to get a decent price home. Final Table Lady has done some good work in the morning for a trainer that likes to crank ‘em up first time out, so this daughter of Stay Thirsty looks very much like a live item. Speed rider E. Maldonado won’t be waiting around for anyone. Shady Stripes displayed excellent zip in a recent gate work (she was asked for her best) and is bred to win early (Smiling Tiger). She failed to change leads in the drill but with her speed it may not matter. Liberation is a daughter of Omaha Beach and has done what has been asked of her in the morning. The barn has solid stats with first timers, so she’s a “must use” on your ticket.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-O K Rose; 4-Odies Memory Lane.
Backups: 6-Hello Kid O Kid O.
Forecast: O K Rose has been knocking on the door (three straight seconds) and is overdue to regain her winning form. She may be a hard one to trust but figures to enjoy an ideal second flight trip and have every chance. Odies Memory Lane removes blinkers, stretches out again, and could get brave if not pressured on the front end. The final furlong always is testing for her but given the projected pace scenario we could see her sticking around for a long time.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 3-Book Smart
Backups: 2-Private Gem.
Forecast: Book Smart is fast on figures and projects to be the controlling speed. Without early pressure to worry about, the son of Stanford will be hard to catch as a logical win play and major push in the various rolling exotics.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 6-Silver N Black; 6-Jennys Tiz; 4-Naval Harbor.
Backups: none.
Forecast: There is nothing to trust – and no result would surprise us – in this maiden $12,500 sprint in which the morning line favorite (6/5) Silver N Black already has failed 18 times. He offers no value, yet he could win. Jennys Tiz has just three prior races on her resume – she’s not terrible – and clearly has room for some improvement. You have to use her. Naval Harbor has some early speed and should be in the fray most of the way. He’s probably better than his morning line of 12-1 indicates
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Prancinghruparis; 1-Streaker.
Backups: 2-In the Air Tonight.
Forecast: Prancingthruparis is a genuine, consistent, and versatile filly turf performer with three wins over the local lawn. She employs a very effective second flight stalking style and earned a career top speed figure when winning the Irish O’Brien down the Hillside Course in mid-March. She’s been kept on edge with a steady series of easy workouts in the interim. Streaker, third behind our top pick two races back in the Irish O’Brien, is guaranteed a ground saving trip from the rail and won’t have to improve much to make a serious run for it.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Fibonaccis Ride; 3-Om N Joy.
Backups: none.
Forecast: We’re not sure Fibonaccis Ride wants to run this far but if she’s ever going to stay a middle distance it most likely will be in her first try. She’s clearly the controlling speed and if she switches off early the daughter of Clubhouse Ride may take this year’s Melair Stakes field a very long way. Om N Joy is proven around two turns and if our top pick fails to see out the trip she’ll be the one most likely to pick up the pieces.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Kings River Knight.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Kings River Knight always is dominant in these state-bred middle distance events for older horses and will be a short price to continue his winning ways in this year’s renewal of the Crystal Water Stakes. He’s won five of eight over the local lawn and likely will be the controlling speed, though he doesn’t need the lead to win. His morning line of 4/5 seems about right.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Lady Gregory; 1-Sharp Ride
Backups:
Forecast: Lady Gregory was nosed out at 4/5 in an overnight race here in late April but should be capable of making amends in this state-bred first level allowance dash for fillies and mares. A winner of 11 of 29 during her career, the J. Mullins-trained mare isn’t a particularly quick type leaving the gate, but she can turn it on when it counts, and regular pilot H. Berrios knows what to do. Sharp Ride, a winner of four of six over the local main track, isn’t quite as fast on numbers as our top pick but a repeat of her runaway five length score two runs back makes her a major player and a “must use.”
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Cali Cat; 2-Style Cat.
Backups: 5-Bro Bro.
Forecast: Cali Cat is fairly solid in this year’s edition of the Snow Chief, though nine furlongs might be stretching his limit. Never worse than second in four prior outings over the local lawn, the son of American Pharoah can be hard to beat as the controlling speed or from a stalking position, so regular pilot J. Hernandez can play the break and choose his strategy. Style Cat looked quite good winning the recent Echo Eddie Stakes sprinting on dirt. He’s unproven at this distance but might be a better type now.
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