Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Fluent; 10-Music Festival
Forecast: Let’s go with a couple of newcomers in the Saturday opener, a five furlong turf dash for juvenile fillies. Fluent shows a solid series of main track workouts that should have her plenty fit and ready and a pedigree that suggests she’ll be most effective on grass. The R. Mandella-trained daughter the South American champion Bal a Ball is a good mover with plenty of speed, so if she leaves with her field she should be in the fray throughout. Music Festival has trained like she owns plenty of early speed and looks like a very live item despite her extreme outside draw. The barn has modest stats with first-timers, but this daughter of Vancouver may prove the exception to the rule. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with ‘Festival, the quicker of the two, getting a slight preference on top.
Notable Workouts:
6-Fluent (Sept. 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade B-
In a team drill from gate with Roses R Blue and Billy’s Bet (4f, :47.4hg) and trailed early while being taken in hand, was asked for a bit of run midway on the turn and accelerated inside in sharp style to quickly close the gap on her workmates and then finish out nicely without ever really being asked for her best, splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :48.1 and 1:01 flat on our watches (galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.4h). Certainly not a flashy work but we liked the way she did it. Nice mover seems plenty fit.
View Workout Video
10-Music Festival (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h). Grade B+
Tons best in training track drill with Pop Pop’s Dream (4f, :48h TT), breaking off a length in front and then finishing well clear at the wire without every being asked to show her best speed, final three furlongs in :35 flat. Quick-actioned filly looks like very much like a win-early sprint type for M. Puype and should be plenty fit by now. Very live at first asking.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Arthur Spooner; 4-Velvet Ghost
Forecast: Arthur Spooner has an improving pattern and a pedigree that should allow for another forward move in his first try around two turns. The Gemologist gelding has little to beat in this five-runner maiden claiming miler for juveniles and should be a very short price to graduate. Velvet Ghost shows up in a seller for the first time, switches to dirt, and makes his first start since being gelded. The son of Shaman Ghost received some play in both of his prior outings so maybe there’s some ability to work with that hasn’t been displayed so far. By default, he’s a contender. Arthur Spooner will get the main push in rolling exotic play but will have tickets using both in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Mo Forza
Forecast: The first three finishers in the Del Mar Mile S.-G2 meet again, and it won’t be surprising to see another bunched-up finish. Mo Forza, away for more than 10 months, came back as well as he left to produce an exciting turn of foot and secure the win close home, and if duplicate that performance today he should find a way to win his eighth race from his nine previous starts. The P. Miller-trained gelding picks up four lbs. off that win while major player Hit the Road, who finished third beaten a length behind our top pick, drops two, thus creating a six pound shift in the weights. Will it matter? Possibly, but we’ll stick with Mo Forza on top as a rolling exotic single.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Novel; 6-Unwritten Code; 7-Kiss My Kat
Forecast: Big Novel, in the frame in both career starts and most recently a respectable third in the Generous Portion S. at Del Mar, returns to the maiden Cal-bred ranks and is the one to beat in this maiden six furlong dirt sprint for California-bred juvenile fillies. She’s a one-paced grinding type that must avoid trouble from the rail, so doesn’t qualify as a single in a race that has two first-time starters showing pretty good morning workouts. Kiss My Kat worked five furlongs from the gate in 1:00.1hg a couple of weeks ago while displaying decent speed, though she failed to change leads and may have suspect stamina. Unwritten Code looked fairly decent in a half mile gate work (:47.3hg) Sept. 19 that makes her a fit in this league. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Big Novel.
Notable Workouts
6-Unwritten Code (Sept. 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3hg). Grade B-
In blinkers, did pretty well in gate drill with Star Entry (4f, :48hg) for J. Periban, never really asked much and proving best by a couple of lengths with splits of :23.3 and :47.3. Juvenile state-bred filly has enough natural speed to be dangerous at first asking in the proper spot.
View Workout Video
7-Kiss My Kat (Sept. 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade B-
Far in front of workmate Above Suspicion (5f, 1:01.4hg) from gate while displaying excellent speed for a California-bred juvenile filly by Curlin to Mischief, splits of :23.2 and :47 flat before galloping out five furlongs a bit slower than final time without changing leads. Plenty of zip but not quite sure how far she’ll carry it. Mulhall barn has excellent stats with first-time starters, for what it’s worth.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Commander; 5-Unbridled Ethos; 8-Coulthard
ForecastThis Hillside Turf sprint for second-level allowance older horses came up fairly contentious with a number of legitimate possibilities. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Commander has developed into a genuine and consistent late-running turf sprinter and should thoroughly enjoy this unique course. First or second in nine of 18 career starts with strong, consistent speed figures that are better than par for this level, the P. Miller-trained gelding was nosed out in a similar event at Del Mar last time out and today gets an extra three-sixteenths of a mile to work with. With some help up front and clear run through the lane the son of War Dancer should be along in time. Unbridled Ethos has a similar late-running style that makes him quite dangerous over this course and distance. Third in the same race Commander finished second in, the son of Mizzen Mast encountered trouble at the head of the lane then got clear too late. With clear sailing today, he’ll be right there. Coulthard, perfect in two starts since being imported from Ireland but away since March, has trained like he’s plenty fit to resume where he left off and is guaranteed a clear run from his outside draw. The P. D’Amato-trained sophomore colt steps up in class while tackling older foes for the first time and he’s a tad shy in the speed figure department but if he can improve off the bench he’ll have a decent look at it.
Notable Workouts:
5-Unbridled Ethos (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing in solo training track drill, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :35.4 looking quite nice. ON top of his game, should fire another big shot next time out.
View Workout Video
8-Coulthard (Sept. 20, Santa Anita, 4f, 48.3h TT). Grade B
In blinkers, coasting through the lane while slightly best over Hollywoodhellraisr (same time) for P. D’Amato, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36 flat, plenty left. Coming back as well as he left and won his both local starts on grass in good style earlier this year.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Eight Rings; 4-Classier
Forecast: Trainer B. Baffert holds the aces in this five-runner second-level allowance two-turn event for older horse. Eight Rings, winner of the American Pharoah S.-G1 in 2019 over this track and distance but winless in the two years since, stretches out again and should find himself as the controlling speed, though stable mate Classier has a major say in the pace flow. The son of Empire Maker exits a series of graded stakes sprints and clearly is facing softer foes today and based purely on speed figures he should be capable of wiring the field. Classier, winner of the Los Alamitos Derby-G3 two runs back but winding up five lengths behind third-place finisher ‘Rings when winding up fifth in the Pat O’Brien S.-G2 last time out, gets Lasix for the first time, is reunited with “win rider” M. Smith and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip outside. A recent half mile bullet workout in :46.4h should have him on edge for a career top performance but on pure numbers he has some ground to make up. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Eight Rings.
Notable Workouts:
3-Eight Rings (Sept. 10, Del Mar, 5f, :59h). Grade: A-
Looked very much like his old self in this solo five furlong drill at Del Mar, final three furlongs in :35.1, breezing through the lane. May finally be coming around; is winless since his American Pharoah S.-G1. Ready to stretch out again and win.
View Workout Video
4-Classier (Sept. 10, Del Mar, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B+
Cruise control in solo drill at Del Mar for B. Baffert, splits of :24 flat, :47.2 and :59.3 from the half mile pole to the 7/8 pole and pulled up six furlongs in 1:14.1 out to the six furlong pole. Ready for his best effort on the stretch out.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Lincoln Hawk; 5-One Fast Bro
Forecast: Lincoln Hawk earned a career top number when a respectable fifth (beaten less than two lengths) in the Del Mar Derby-G2 last month and today shows up in a first-level allowance. Theoretically, this is a significant class drop but not really - he’s taking on older horses today, so the competition isn’t that much softer, if at all. The R. Baltas-trained colt won a maiden race over this course and distance in mid-June and is a better type now, so in a race that has plenty of early speed signed on the Irish-bred colt may be able to produce the last run with a trouble-free trip. One Fast Bro raced in heavy traffic much of the way, got clear inside the furlong pole and produced a good late kick when a fast-finishing but unlucky runner-up vs. similar at Del Mar last time out and with better luck today the son of Coil swill be in thick of it once again. The concern is that he’s winless in six starts over the Santa Anita turf course, but it appears he’s a better type now, so in a field loaded with pace types that will compliment his style the S. Ruiz-trained gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. on top. In a very contentious affair, these are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
Notable Workouts:
1-Lincoln Hawk (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: A-
Under a nice hold through the lane while finishing with a ton left, final half mile on training track in :23.4 and :47.1, outstanding. Holds his edge, will be dangerous with a return to the allowance ranks.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Dr. Schivel; 2-Vertical Threat; 4-C Z Rocket; 5-Flagstaff
Forecast: We’re going to use four of the six entrants in rolling exotic play in this year’s renewal of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship-G2 in a race that we’ll otherwise pass. The old pros Falstaff and C Z Rocket will get plenty of play and deservedly so, as both are more than capable of winning this type of event with their best effort. Falstaff always has liked the Santa Anita main track (four wins from nine starts) though he’s never been particularly fast on speed figures. C Z Rocket has been a beaten choice in his last three starts, the last two without the Lasix that he reportedly needs to show his best form (none of the entrants will be treated with the bleeder medication in this race). The P. Miller-trained gelding is nonetheless a major player and must be respected. Dr. Schivel defeated a similar field in the Bing Crosby S.-G2 at Del Mar, but a case could be made that the others ran down to his level, rather than vice-versa. The son of Violence never trains like much but seems to rise to the occasion when the money is down, and if he can secure a decent pace-stalking trip from his rail post the M. Glatt-trained colt should be in the thick of it. On paper, Vertical Threat seems in tough but he’s very possibly the controlling speed in a race that figures to produce soft early fractions. If he can clear early without pressure the son of Tapiture may get brave and never look back.
Notable Workouts:
1-Dr. Schivel (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 59.4h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, picked him up five lengths behind Katerini (5f, 1:00.2h) at the quarter pole before the talented sprinting sophomore closed the gap under some coaxing to wind up a neck back at the wire, final quarter mile in :23.4. Not always the most willing worker but raises his game in the afternoon when it counts.
View Workout Video
2-Vertical Threat (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade B+
Breezing inside Taishan (same time) for Baltas, never asked while winding up a neck in front at the wire, splits of :24.1, :35.4 and 1:00.3, very nice. Lightly-raced 4-year-old has never been better and will get tested for class in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Will fire his best shot.
View Workout Video
5-Flagstraff (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade B-
Worked outside Divine Armor (same time) for J. Sadler and did well enough while stride-for-stride most of the way, eventually edging clear by a half-length at the wire, light coaxing only, final quarter mile in :24.4. Not always the most enthusiastic worker but seems to be holding his good form over a main track he’s always liked.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Going to Vegas; 8-Luck
Forecast: Stable mates in R. Baltas’ barn should slug it out in this year’s edition of the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 over 10 furlongs on grass. Going to Vegas likely will inherit the lead in a race without pace and given that type of trip the daughter of Goldencents could take this field gate-to-wire. A winner of three of her last four starts including the Santa Ana S.-G2 in front-running style over this course and distance in the spring, she’s fast on numbers, thoroughly genuine and consistent, and has trained recently like she’s ready for yet another forward move. The Kentucky-bred but European-raced Luck is Baltas’ other major contender, and while she doesn’t quite have the resume of Going to Vegas she could easily be just as good. The lightly-raced (just five starts) daughter of Kitten’s Joy displayed plenty of promise early in her career in France and then was visually quite impressive in her U.S. debut when producing an electric turn of foot to defeat a first-level allowance field at Del Mar with a stakes-quality speed figure. Though the pace scenario may not be in her favor, she’ll love this 10 furlong trip and is another that has been highly impressive in the a.m. leading up to this event. We’ll give Going to Vegas a slight edge on top due to the projected race show but include both in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
4-Going to Vegas (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B+
Solo training track drill while looking sharp as a tack, splits of :35.4 and :59.4, light late coaxing while coming home with plenty left. Maintains her edge.
View Workout Video
8-Luck (Sept. 22, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: A-
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Disappearing Act (5f, 1:00h TT) and easily went on by in the final sixteenth while under a nice hold, a half-length best at the wire, final quarter mile in a terrific :23.3. Looks the part of a potentially high class long distance turf performer.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 10: Post: 5:50 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tizamagician; 7-Tripoli
Forecast: The first two finishers in the Pacific Classic-G1 face off again in this year’s renewal of the Awesome Again S.-G1, a pivotal West Coast prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in four weeks at Del Mar. Tripoli, a thoroughly convincing winner over Tizamagician (pair well clear of the rest) at the seaside oval in mid-August, should enjoy a similar stalking trip and then have every chance to exert his superiority when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole home. Bred for turf (Kitten’s Joy) but vastly improved since being switched to the main track, the J. Sadler-trained colt has trained as well as ever in recent weeks, so we’re expecting another top quality performance, one that should be good enough to win right back. Tizamagician is most effective as the controlling speed and from his rail post position seems certain to employ front-running tactics under regular rider F. Prat. The son of Tiznow earned a career top 103 Beyer speed figure when runner-up in the Pacific Classic and it’ll probably take something similar if not slightly better to turn the tables on Tripoli, but if not policed up front he R. Mandella-trained colt should make a race of it. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Tripoli on top.
Notable Workouts:
1-Tizamagician (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h). Grade: B
Broke off a length in front of Explosive (4f, :49.1h) and was ridden in the final furlong to open up approaching the wire before continuing out to 7/8 pole, not a “wow” work but good enough. Holds his form, pointing for the Awesome Again S.-G1, may be most effective as the controlling speed.
View Workout Video
5-Medina Spirit (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B
Worked inside Ax Man (same time) for B. Baffert and went nicely (better than usual), while traveling out to the 7/8ths pole stride-for-stride, up in 1:13 flat on our watches, mild coaxing only. Appears back on the beam, will be facing older horses for the first time in the Awesome Again S.-G1.
View Workout Video
7-Tripoli (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Much best in team drill with Dubbie Dubby (5f, 1:00.4h) and Bella D (5f, 1:02.1h) for J. Sadler, lengthening out nicely when let run inside the furlong pole, :24.1 from the top of the lane to the wire. Appears as good now as he was prior to his Pacific Classic-G1 win.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 11: Post: 6:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Neptune’s Storm; 4-United; 6-Acclimate
Forecast: Several of these have the credentials to win this year’s edition of the John Henry Turf Champioship-G2; we’ll try to survive using just three, with a very slight preference on top to Neptune’s Storm. Primarily a miler, the P. Miller-trained Neptune’s Storm shows up in this 10 furlong event probably to avoid stable mate Mo Forza, the favorite and likely winner in the eight-furlong City of Hope Mile S.-G2 earlier on the program, but this distance might be within his range, over a turf course he loves and one that has a downhill run during the opening furlong. The son of Stormy Atlantic projects to enjoy an easy, ground-saving, stalking trip, and as a four-time winner over the local lawn the 5-year-old gelding should have every chance to pull off a mild surprise. United is clearly the one to beat, though he may have lost a step or two this year, having finished off the board in two of his last three starts when facing similar competition as the favorite. Still, the veteran son of Giant’s Causeway – a five time winner at Santa Anita and successful in nine of 21 career outings - always has to be respected. Acclimate does his best running on the front-end, and while there are other speed types in the field the P. D’Amato-trained gelding could be dangerous under these conditions if he can make the running without undue pressure. Give the possibility of that scenario, we will toss him in a few tickets in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
4-United (Sept. 23, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:25.3h). Grade: B
Best over Ivy League (6f, 1:13.2h) for R. Mandella, breaking off several lengths behind and then responding to urging through the lane to be a head in front at the finish before continuing out to 7/8 pole under urging, final six furlongs in :23.4, :36 flat, 1:01 flat and 1:13.2 on our watches. Workmanlike at best but prefers turf and seems in good enough shape.
View Workout Video
.svg){kind=logo}
