Jeff Siegel: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies | Friday, Oct. 1, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).  For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1:  Post:  1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Ferrariano; 6-Viking Plunder

Forecast: The Friday opener is a challenging affair for older first-level state-bred allowance runners over a mile on grass.  We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in our rolling exotics.  Though he recorded several workouts while stabled on track in July and August, Ferrariano failed to participate at the Del Mar meeting and will be making his first start since June when finishing a willing third (beaten a neck) vs. 3-year-olds in the Snow Chief S.  His recent workouts have been uninspiring but the son of Mshawish is a grass specialist who has never been all that willing in the a.m., so his current fitness is tough to gauge.  On the plus side, his numbers are gradually rising, he’s drawn comfortable inside, and his stalking style should keep the B. Koriner-trained colt free of trouble.  Viking Plunder has developed into a genuine and consistent performer with recent numbers that make him the one to beat.  Claimed out of a maiden $16,000 affair at Gulfstream Park in April, the P. Capestro-trained gelding has improved considerably for his new connections since arriving in the West, and a healthy, recent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs provides indication that another forward move is imminent.  In the frame in his last five starts, the son of Creative Cause shortens to a mile and projects to enjoy a comfortable, second flight trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.  

Notable Workouts:
2–Ferrariano (Sept. 19, SA, 5f, 1:03.2h).  Grade: C+
Went without blinkers (wears them in the afternoon) and earned splits of :25.2, :37.3 and 1:03.2, easy to the top before being asked and ridden through the lane.  Not impressive, but never is in the morning and clearly wants grass to show his best.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2:  Post: 1:28 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-You’re My Boy Kat; 6-Bright Leaf

Forecast: In a race that might be best left alone, those who wish to participate may consider taking a flyer with Bright Leaf in this modest six-runner maiden $32,000 claimer for 2-year-olds. Claimed for $80,000 in his debut in August at Del Mar, presumably because he had trained pretty well, the son of Dialed In closed a gap but much too late when finishing a distant fifth before galloping out with some interest.  However, his next outing was a disaster, as the J. Sadler-trained colt added blinkers, lugged out early and was always a sixteenth of a mile behind the pack when overmatched vs. much tougher straight maiden foes.  Today, he drops to the bottom, removes blinkers, is drawn comfortably outside, gets a break in the weights, and shortens to a sprint after recording a bullet :59 flat gate work at Los Alamitos eight days ago, so if he can run at all this is the spot to show it. The likely choice and one to beat is the money-burning You’re My Kat, in the frame in four of five career starts but beaten without mishap in two of his last three starts as an even money favorite.  He’s re-equipped with blinkers and should be prominent throughout; maybe today against this group he’ll be able to punch it in.  

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RACE 3:  Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sumter; 8-Elevado; 10-Fight On Ron

Forecast: Maiden juveniles sprint five furlongs on grass in a race that came up a bit light in quality.  Sumter improved a bunch off a poor dirt debut when switching to the lawn and finishing a willing runner-up under these conditions at Del Mar earlier this month.  He’s trained well since, so another forward move is likely, though the son of War Front isn’t particularly fast on a numbers and a good colt probably can beat him.  Fight On Ron and Elevado, third and fourth, respectively, when debuting in a fairly competitive maiden dirt sprint at Los Alamitos three weeks ago, both have a right to step forward and are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.  Fight On Ron ran okay without mishap, was subsequently gelded, and goes for an outfit that hits at 29% with a significant profit with the second-time starter angle.  Elevado flashed good speed before weakening, shortens up, tries grass, and picks up J. Rosario, so the $190,000 son of Street Boss looks dangerous while projected to be on or near the lead throughout.  

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RACE 4:  Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Platinum Equity; 6-P R Star

Forecast: Platinum Equity shortens in trip, exits a tougher starter’s allowance race, loves the Santa Anita main track (six career wins), and is reunited with “win rider” E. Maldonado in this $20,000 claimer for older horses at seven furlongs.  The Stay Thirsty gelding has the proper stalking style for this trip, and in a race that should have a modest early pace he should be well-placed and ready to pounce when called upon.  P R Radio Star is dropping a level in his first start following a claim by G. Pappaprodromou, not a healthy sign, and the veteran gelding is winless in six starts this year, so his current condition must be questioned.  A tough old pro, the veteran son of Warrior’s Reward seemed okay in a recent workout, and is cozily drawn outside, so we’ll include him on a few tickets while reserving the main punch for Platinum Equity.  

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RACE 5:  Post: 3:00 PT Grade:  B
Use: 2-One Timer; 4-Forbidden Kingdom; 5-Miss Alacrity

ForecastMidwest invader One Timer arrives with a pair of fast, highly-rated all-weather wins on his resume and today will try to earn his way into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in this year’s edition of the Speakeasy S. over five furlongs on grass.  The Trappe Shot gelding was scratched out of the Arlington-Washington Futurity in late August (he was 4/5 on the morning line) and didn’t record a workout until 12 days later but he does show a half mile bullet gate drill in :45 3/5 at his home base at Arlington Park before hopping on a plane to California so we’ll assume he’s fit and ready.  Based strictly on speed figures, the L. Rivelli-trained juvenile is the one to beat but must prove he can act equally as well on the lawn.  Miss Alacrity also is perfect in two career outings, most recently winning the Colleen S. at this trip on turf at Monmouth Park while employing a pace-pressing style.  The W. Ward-trained filly took heat and then came away with authority in a visually pleasing performance, and while her numbers aren’t quite as fast as our top pick, she certainly could be capable of better if required.  J. Velasquez, who was aboard her in a 10 length debut maiden win at Belmont Park in early May, returns.  Forbidden Kingdom may have been a tad fortunate when winning his debut sprinting on dirt at Del Mar (the much-troubled third place finisher Rhetoric was best) but the speed figure was strong, the runner-up came back to win, and as a son of American Pharoah has a right to be better on grass than dirt.  The R. Mandella-trained colt has been impressive in the morning in the interim, so a step in the right direction can be expected.  

Notable Workouts:
4–Forbidden Kingdom (Sept. 24, SA, 6f, 1:12.4h).  Grade: B
Broke off several lengths behind Micro Share (5f, 1:00.3h) and then rallied inside to prove clearly best through the lane, :24 flat, :35.3 and 1:00 flat to the wire before continuing out to 7/8 pole under mild pressure in 1:12.4.  Flashed good speed when winning his debut on the lead but displayed versatility and a willingness to settle early and finish in this drill.  
View Workout Video

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RACE 6:  Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Electric Ride; 2-Ain’t Easy; 7-Censorship

Forecast: Admittedly, Grace Adler looks impressive on paper; she’s unbeaten in two starts and is fresh off an 11-length romp in the Del Mar Debutante-G1.  Furthermore, she’s bred to improve with experience and distance, so there’s no reason to believe she won’t step forward in her first try around two turns.  That said, we’re not totally sold.  Average at best in the speed figure department and unimpressive when easily outworked by stable mate Censorship (see below), the daughter of Curlin won’t offer any real wagering value and could be vulnerable, so let’s try to beat her.  Censorship is a maiden in three starts and her numbers, while rising, aren’t particularly fast.  Still, the daughter of Tonalist continues to impress in the morning, most recently when toying with Grace Adler in a drill last week, and after finishing a remarkable second after being eliminated at the start with a horrific stumble last time out the B. Baffert-trained filly picks up Johnny V. and seems ready to put her best stuff on display.  Whether that will be good enough remains to be seen, but at 12-1 on the morning line she offers a chance at a gamble.  Electric Ride won at first asking with a big number and did it the right way, pressing the pace and then coming away with authority.  From her inside draw the daughter of Daredevil likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics and if she can clear her rivals entering the first time without undue pressure, she could be hard to catch.  Ain’t Easy is another first-out winner getting tested for class.  The daughter of Into Mischief projects to settle into the second flight and then launch her bid and based on her recent drills the P. D’Amato-trained filly won’t be bothered by today’s extra distance.  

Notable Workouts:
1–Electric Ride (Sept. 25, SA, 5f, 1:00.1h).  Grade: B
In outside in company with stakes-placed older stable mate Crew Dragon (same time) and held her own while going stride-for-stride most of the way, splits of :36 flat and 1:00.1, a neck at the wire under mild coaxing, solid drill.  Hard to say that she’ll improve routing but if she’s ever going to handle two-turns it’ll probably be in her first try.
View Workout Video

2–Ain’t Easy (Sept. 20, SA, 6f, 1:16.1).  Grade: B-
Slow but steady throughout without ever being permitted to show her speed to be even but best inside Desert Dawn (same time) for P. D’Amato, splits of :26.2, :38.3, 1:03.4 and 1:16.1 while breezing from the 5/8ths pole to the 7/8ths pole.  Should handle two-turns no problem.
View Workout Video

7–Censorship (Sept. 19, SA, 6f, 1:13h).  Grade: B+
Breezed inside Grace Adler (5f, 1:00.2h) and was noticeable best, well in hand from the quarter pole to the wire (workmate asked) to about a length clear before continuing out under some coaxing to the 7/8 pole, :23.4 and :36.1 for the final three furlongs.  Still a maiden after three starts but remains highly-regarded and deservedly so.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7:  Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Gregorian Chant; 5-Law Abidin Citizen; 7-Lieutenant Dan

Forecast: Welcome back, Hillside Turf Course!  This year’s edition of the Eddie D. S.-G2 is a highly-contentious affair with several contenders.  We’re guessing how the course will play, but there appears to be plenty of early speed signed on to promote the chances of the late-runners.  Gregorian Chant should be well-suited by the race flow and after finding five furlongs a bit too sharp when a too-little-too-late third place effort in the Green Flash S.-G3 at Del Mar last time out the English-bred gelding gets an extra three-sixteenths of a mile to work with and should make the best of it.  He’s certain to get the patient ride he requires from regular pilot J. Hernandez and if he gets enough help up front the P. D’Amato-trained gelding should be able to produce a winning late kick.  Lieutenant Dan, a clever winner of the Green Flash H.-G3 in late August while earning a career top speed figure, is a versatile type that can pop and go or stalk and pounce.  The Grazen gelding lands the good outside draw and should fire another huge shot.  Law Abidin Citizen, a respectable close fourth in the Bing Crosby S.-G1 on dirt at Del Mar, can be equally effective on turf and the son of Twirling Candy projects to settle in a stalking position and then have every chance from the head of the lane to the wire.  A recent bullet five furlong workout (:59.3h, fastest of 19) should have him primed and ready.  

Notable Workouts:
Lieutenant Dan (Sept. 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT).  Grade B
Solo training track drill while ticking over for S. Miyadi, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :35.4, very nice without being asked.  Really has improved following an 11 month layoff and recently earned a career top speed figure when winning the Green Flash H.-G3.  
View Workout Video

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RACE 8:  Post: 4:29 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Corniche; 6-Rockefeller; 7-Pappacap

Forecast: This could turn out to be a very strong edition of the American Pharoah S.-G1, but with juveniles stretching out for the first time you can never be sure which ones will handle the extra distance and which ones won’t be able stay the trip.  Corniche was awesome when breaking his maiden at first asking at Del Mar in a race that earned a monster speed figure, the best in North American to date, but he hasn’t been impressive in the morning since that race (see below), so we’re not sure if he’ll be equally effective routing.  We suspect the son of Quality Road will be let roll from the gate to take advantage of his inside draw in an attempt to wire the field.  Maybe he can, but at 6/5 on the morning line he won’t offer any real wagering value.  Rockefeller outworked Corniche last week and looked very good doing it.  In his debut maiden win at Del Mar, the son of Medaglia d’Oro failed to change leads through the lane, though he did switch over smoothly in his recent workout.  This could be a very good colt so it’s not surprising that F. Prat picks up the mount.  Pappacap tried to make the gap from his rail post in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 and lost all chance; he had won his first two starts like a legitimate top class prospect and as a son of Gun Runner seems certain to handle extra distance.  His most recent workout (see below) was mouth-watering good and if there’s a quick enough pace to compliment his style the M. Casse-trained colt could easily produce the last run.  We’ll have tickets including all three in our rolling exotic play, but at 8-1 on the morning line Pappacap represents the best gamble in the win pool.  

Notable Workouts:
6-Rockefeller (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h).  Grade B+
Breezed inside Corniche (5f, 1:00h) and was always going the better of the two, finishing in hand to be a length clear at the wire (workmate asked but made no impression), splits of :35.3 and :59.4.  Failed to change leads in debut win but switches over nicely today and appears to be a colt that will step forward considerably with distance and experience.  Workmate was highly impressive breaking his maiden at Del Mar but was far less than that today.
View Workout Video

7-Pappacap (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h).  Grade: A-
Worked outside older Laker Mamba (5f, :59.4h) and was much the best under a nice hold throughout, exerting his superiority in the final furlong to be a length clear (could have been more) while earning splits of :34.2 and :59.3 on our watches.  Much better than his troubled Del Mar Futurity-G1 race indicates (had self-caused trouble) and seems very likely, as a son of Gun Runner, to improve stretching out.  
View Workout Video

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RACE 9:  Post: 5:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 6-Big Summer; 12-Self Isolation

Forecast: The nightcap, a maiden-special-weight turf sprint for older state-bred fillies and mares, came up soft, so we’ll go two-deep and hope that’s enough.  Big Summer is the logical top pick, having finished in the frame in all three starts, so she may be hard to trust, having been a beaten favorite in her last two.  A decent sort of filly will beat her, but there may not be one in her.  Her numbers are okay but we’re just not sure how much improvement she has in her.  Self Isolation is a bit intriguing and should be included as well.  Away since May of last year when an okay third while well-backed (5/2) in her only outing, the daughter of Square Eddie certainly is bred for turf and returns with Lasix and a decent series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have her plenty fit for this six furlong dash.  The D. O’Neill-trained sophomore must overcome the extreme outside draw, but against this group she should be able to do so – assuming she’s good enough.    

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