The Arkansas Derby Day card at Oaklawn Park features a quartet of stakes races, the principal two of which – the Derby and the Fantasy for Oaks hopefuls – are part of the late pick four. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet handicappers Jeff Siegel and Jeremy Plonk matched wits to put together their team ticket.
Oaklawn | Race 10 | Grade 3 $600,000 Fantasy Stakes
We’re in agreement that #6 Wet Paint (pictured above) is a logical single as she looks to sweep Oaklawn’s Martha Washington, Honeybee and Fantasy en route to the Kentucky Oaks. She was well-backed last week in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager as well as the Oaks-Derby doubles. Wet Paint got little pace help in her last two victories and won drawing away in both. She’s had strong works since.
Oaklawn | Race 11 | allowance
Three are in order for this leg, including #2 Breslau in search of a third straight win while rising in class each time. #7 Emerald Forest moves from one crazy-high percentage trainer at Fair Grounds in Ron Faucheux to another at Oaklawn in Robertino Diodoro. Hard to dispute Emerald Forest’s current form. #12 Favorite Outlaw comes out of the strongest race of any in here, a runner-up to promising 3-year-old stakes-winning sprinter Corona Bolt. It was a strong effort not giving way at all behind that front-runner, especially after a September layoff. His best effort lifetime came in his second start of the form cycle to open his career and hits that spot again Saturday as the one to beat.
Oaklawn | Race 12 | Grade 1 $1,250,000 Arkansas Derby
Our agreement in the main event is that both of us are standing against morning line favorite and Rebel third-place finisher Reincarnate. Jeff notes his recent work didn’t inspire, and Jeremy suggests he will be wildly underlaid on the tote because of his troubled start last out. We’ll shoot for some spread coverage here: #3 Harlocap and #4 Two Eagles River as longshots who will be on or near the lead early; along with logical contenders and later threats #6 Angel of Empire, #7 Rocket Can and #10 Red Route One.
Oaklawn | Race 13 | allowance
A capacity field of 12 wraps the big day and we’ll include two players in a bid to once again douse the money-burner #1 Knocker Down. The hard-bet tandem of Cox-Geroux will stretch this one out after 3 sprint losses at 1-5, 3-5 and 8-5 favoritism. #6 Back Ring Light exits a better-than-looks allowance third last out at 9 furlongs behind stakes veteran Barber Road. #11 Efficiency ran spottily last time and is the kind who can really relish the addition of blinkers, which will be employed for the first time while also dropping 5 pounds of weight from his most recent effort.
The Ticket:
6 with 12,7,2 with 10,7,6,4,3 with 6,11 = $15 for $.50 play
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