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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 11:55 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-I’ll Stand Taller; 4-Triple Tap; 11-Sumo
Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert has two major players in this first-level allowance sprint, and both are well-regarded colts with plenty of upside. American Pharoah’s half-brother Triple Tap was late to the party when finally making his debut in mid-March earlier this year. He won nicely over seven furlongs with a strong speed figure, but then disappeared. The son of Tapit returns almost nine months later following a string of sharp workouts while appearing at least as good and perhaps better than he did prior to his first start, and likely will settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Stable mate Sumo was a short horse and a tad disappointing when fading to fifth in his debut in early September at Del Mar but left that form behind with an authoritative maiden score at Los Alamitos two weeks later, winning in good style with a sharp number. Comfortably drawn outside and likely to produce another forward move, the son of Not This Time picks up Johnny V. and should find himself in a soft stalking position and then be ready to pounce when called up on. Worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up is I’ll Stand Pat, a progressive son of Square Eddie with rising numbers, a good prompting style, and prior win over the Del Mar main track.
Notable Workouts:
Triple Tap (October 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B
In blinkers, in company outside Rockefeller (same time) while under a nice hold throughout, splits of :24.1, :35.2 and :59.2 before being allowed to gallop out strongly to the 7/8 pole, up in 1:12 flat on our watches for a full six furlongs. Coming back extremely well, seems fit, and may be an even better type now than he was breaking his maiden at first asking in March.
View Workout Video
Sumo (October 31, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B+
Slightly second best but did quite well working outside Breeders’ Cup-bound Private Mission (5f, :58.4h) for B. Baffert, mostly in hand and never really set down, splits of :23.1, :34.3 and :59 flat, sharp move by lightly-raced son of Not This Time. Plenty of improvement in him with added experience.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 12:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Birth of Cool; 8-Ready to Purrform
Forecast: Ready to Purrform arrives with a perfect record (two-for-two), graduating at first asking at Ellis Park by a nose in early September and then improving significantly when scoring handsomely in the Laurel Futurity by more than three lengths despite breaking awkwardly and then being forced to rally far wide from the the three-furlong pole to the wire. The son of Kitten’s Joy picks up J. Rosario for this mile grass event for juveniles that serves as a consolation prize for those not quite up to the B.C. Juvenile Turf. This could be a very nice colt down the road, especially when the distances increase, but for now the B. Cox-trained colt is being allowed to step forward at a proper rate. There’s plenty of early speed signed on to compliment his late-running style so with good racing luck he should be capable of producing the last run. Worth tossing in on a ticket or two at a big price is the maiden Birth of Cool. Unplaced in two career outings but encountering significant trouble in both, the son of Karakontie has much more ability than he’s been able to show and with clear sailing today could easily make his presence felt. The P. Gallagher-trained colt has a good turn of foot, picks up Frankie, and seems a bit better than his morning line of 12-1 gives him credit for.
Notable Workouts:
Birth of Cool (October 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h). Grade: B-
A little late changing leads in solo half mile main track drill for Gallagher but did well enough without every being asked, splits of :24.3 and :49.4 on our watches. In good shape but is a much better mover on turf. Has some upside.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 12:55 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Big Novel; 6-Big Switch; 9-Vivacious Vanessa
Forecast: Two fillies by Mr. Big from the J. Sadler barn rate a big look in this year’s edition of the Golden State Juvenile Fillies S. over seven furlongs on the main track. Big Novel continued her improving pattern with a pleasing maiden win at Santa Anita last month, showing good tactical speed to the head of the lane and then drawing clear with authority when asked to quicken. On pure numbers she’s the best in the field and likely will continue to step forward, so at 3-1 on the morning she’s clearly the top pick. Her stable mate, Big Switch, won at first asking over the Del Mar main track in late August, doing so from off the pace like a filly that will do nothing but improve with experience and distance. She doesn’t quite match up with Big Novel based on numbers, so it’s understandable that J. Bravo jumps off to ride the favorite, but I. Ortiz, Jr. takes the call and, yes, he’s a pretty good replacement rider. We’ll also toss in the recent debut grass winner Vivacious Vanessa, thoroughly professional in victory three weeks ago but switching surfaces and shortening up while moving into stakes company. She’s another that had J. Bravo in the saddle for her race and today will be accompanied by the highly-capable J. Hernandez, one of trainer G. Mandella’s “go-to” riders. She should be running on strongly late.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Hear My Prayer; 8-Superstition
Forecast: While this year’s renewal of the Senator Ken Maddy S for fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs on grass is highly contentious, we’ve boiled it down to two main contenders. It’s hard to get past Superstition as the top pick and one to beat. A perfect three-for-three over this course and distance, the daughter of Ghostzapper has an excellent stalking style that keeps her free of trouble and a highly-effective closing kick that makes her difficult to contain during the critical late stages of the race. Her victory two runs back in the Daisycutter S. probably beats this field, and with regular pilot F. Prat staying aboard we’re expecting the R. Mandella-trained filly to fire her best shot. Hear My Prayer, a winner of five of 10 career starts, shipped in from Florida during the summer meeting and was quite convincing in victory sprinting on grass in a good allowance race that earned a stakes-quality speed figure. She has enough early speed to turn her rail post position into a positive and can be effective on the lead or from a stalking position. A recent bullet half mile main track workout at Santa Anita in 46 1/5 seconds indicates she’s spot on for a career top effort.
Notable Workouts:
Superstition (October 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B+
Worked in the dark in team drill for R. Mandella inside Sumter (same time) and was under a nice hold throughout while finishing with plenty left while breezing out to the 7/8 pole. On top of her game.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Joker Boy; 11-Slow Down Andy; 12-Finneus
Forecast: Slow Down Andy ran to his good workouts in his smart debut win last month at Santa Anita, employing a pace-pressing style before coming away with authority to register a nearly five length victory while earning a strong speed figure. Two easy breezes since that race should tick him over nicely for this tougher assignment, and with the likelihood that he’ll step forward with that experience behind him the son of Nyquist appears quite capable of winning right back in the Golden State Juvenile S. for California-bred two-year-olds. He’s drawn nicely outside and should have no issue with today’s extra three-sixteenths of a mile. Joker Boy was eliminated at the start when stumbling badly and subsequently was eased in the American Pharoah S.-G1 last month at Santa Anita. Prior to that outing, the son of Practical Joke won his first two starts sprinting over the Del Mar main track, including the I’m Smokin’ S. in a race that produced a strong speed figure, one good enough to make him a major player despite today’s disadvantageous rail post. He adds blinkers, picks up Johnny V., and seems likely to have a strong pace presence throughout. Finneus was another that was overmatched in the American Pharoah S.-G1 when well-beaten by Corniche but shortens to one corner and faces considerably easier state-bred foes, so we’re expecting the son of Stay Thirsty to regain his best form. During the summer season he was a distant but decent runner-up in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 over this track and distance, and with the switch to J. Rosario he should be able to produce a sufficient late kick to at least hit the board.
Notable Workouts
Joker Boy (October 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, broke off a few lengths in front of Touchdown Brown (5f, 1:00.3h) and was ridden some in the closing stages to wind up head-and-head at the wire, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:01.1, okay move, nothing flashy. Sprints only at this stage for stakes winning juvenile.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Post: 2:50 PT Grade: B
Use: 8-Averly Jane; 9-One Timer; 11-Derrynane
Forecast: Based on the nature of the Del Mar turf course in five-furlong sprints that presents a quick run from the starting gate to the far turn and an extremely short stretch (817 feet), handicappers must identify those horses with excellent early speed along with those that can be within range and then produce the quick turn of foot required to maneuver through heavy traffic in the final furlong. Deep closers have an almost impossible task, so we’ll concentrate on those with tactical speed. Two proven abbreviated sprint specialists with the proper style for the race are a pair of unbeatens, the W. Ward-trained filly Averly Jane and One Timer, conditioned by L. Rivelli. Averly Jane, perfect in four starts and most recently a winner of the listed Indian Summer S. at Keeneland in her first try on grass, is quick but can produce a second move when challenged in the stretch. Furthermore, she’s shown she’s not a need-the-lead type, having won the Kentucky Juvenile S. in her second career outing from a stalking position. Her numbers are solid – not brilliant, but good enough – and she won coasting to the wire in the Indian Summer while giving indication that she could have reached back for something extra had it been required.
One Timer is three-for-three, having won at Arlington Park and Woodbine (both all-weather races) and then most recently at Santa Anita, where he captured Speakeasy S. with a Beyer speed figure (70) that doesn’t do him justice. The running line suggests that he barely held on in the Speakeasy but in truth he was waiting on his competition and actually galloped out far in front after re-breaking past the wire. The Trappe Shot gelding has shown he can dish out heat and take it as well, and everything he has done in the morning since his last race indicates he has plenty more to give.
Derrynane, like Averly Jane a filly tackling the boys, perhaps is the most dangerous of the closers. She’s likely going to have plenty to do from the top of the stretch to the wire will need good fortune to secure a clear path through traffic, but if the leaders do each other in this daughter of Quality Road had a chance at what should be a substantial price. At least she’s worth including underneath in the horizontal exotics.
Notable Workouts
Averly Jane (October 31, Keeneland, 4f, :53.2b TC DU). Grade: B +
Broke off a length in front of Golden Pal (4f, :53.1b TC DU) for Ward and finished down the lane head-and-head over soft going, both under wraps while appearing sharp and eager. Undefeated filly looks terrific and may be the one beat in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Post: 3:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Hidden Connection; 5-Echo Zulu
Forecast: Undefeated in three starts, each by daylight and each more impressive than the previous race, two-time Grade 1 winner Echo Zulu tries two-turns for the first time, but based on running style, pedigree, and everything else we can throw in the hopper this terrific 2-year-old filly shouldn’t be the least bit inconvenienced by today’s longer distance. While she gives the impression of being a quick-actioned, sprinter type, the S. Asmussen-trained filly can switch off early and explode late while always providing regular jockey R. Santana, Jr. with the easiest of rides. The daughter of Horse of the Year and leading first-crop stallion Gun Runner has trained like she’ll have plenty more to give whenever asked. She’ll be a logical short-priced favorite to win this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Hidden Connection has won her first two outings by a combined 17 lengths, most recently the two-turn Pocahontas S.-G3 two-turning at Churchill Downs. We can question the quality of the competition she has beaten so far while recognizing that the B. Calhoun-trained daughter of Connect has a dangerous second flight, stalking style that should she keep her trouble free and give her every chance to show what’s she’s made of. We have to think she has the best chance among the others to provide Echo Zulu with some competition.
Notable Workouts:
Echo Zulu (October 31, Del Mar, 4f, :50.1h). Grade: B
Never asked at any stage in easy solo breeze, final quarter mile in :24.3. Plenty fast but not speed crazy and should stay a middle distance in her present mindset.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Breeders’ Cup Fillies Juvenile Turf. Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Hello You, 9-Koala Princess; 13-Mise En Scene
Forecast: The European contingent for this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is reasonably formidable but you may be surprised to know that over the years foreigners have badly underperformed in this particular race. Only two overseas shippers have been successful in the 13-year history of the event, though Mise En Scene, a Group-3 stakes winner in three career starts and an unlucky fourth last time out in the Fillies Mile-G1, has credentials to be quite dangerous. The English-bred daughter of Siyouni lacked a clear path when attempting to rally at Newmarket yet still finished a strong fourth in a race that produced a career top Timeform rating. She should easily handle Del Mar’s firm ground while the race’s two-turn trip should be of no concern, either.
That said, we’ll stick with the North American-based Koala Princess as our top pick. Thoroughly convincing in both of her wins, a runaway maiden score on the front end at Monmouth Park followed by an off-the-pace victory (rallying from eighth of 11) in a valuable listed sprint stakes at Kentucky Downs, the daughter of More Than Ready is genuine and versatile. She switches off beautifully in the early stages of her races and then quickens instantly when called upon, so we’re expecting she’ll be even more comfortable as the distances increase.
While Koala Princess and Mis En Scene will receive the bulk of our action, we’ll have a saver ticket or two that includes Hello You, a seasoned European import fresh from a noteworthy score in the 7F Rockfel S.-G2 over the testing (uphill late) Newmarket straightaway course on firm ground in late September. She has plenty of experience (six starts) and Timeform ratings that our fairly decent. Not much improvement, if any, will be needed to make her dangerous right off the plane.
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RACE 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Post: 4:50 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Jack Christopher; 3-Oviatt Class; 10-Commandperformance; 12-Corniche
Forecast: The Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old division will be determined along with winter book favoritism for the 2022 Kentucky Derby in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1, which brings together two unbeaten colts, Corniche from the West and Jack Christopher from the East, and several other highly promising colts from the Midwest and various other parts of North America. One thing we’re fairly convinced of is that California’s Corniche is quicker than New York’s Jack Christopher leaving the gate and will be fully committed to be on the lead or at least pressing the pace, whereas ‘Christopher will be content to settle in the second flight if the early pace flow so dictates. Make no mistake, Jack Christopher has proven to be an exceptional colt up to a one-turn mile but as a son of Munnings from a mare by Half Ours he’s no sure thing to improve as the distances increase. Full credit to the colt and his connections if he wins, but at a short price we have lingering doubts.
As for Corniche, there will be no rating tactics employs. He’s a fast colt, a need-the-lead type, and trainer B. Baffert won’t be doing any experimenting. The son of Quality Road, a $1.5 million purchase at the OBS Sale in April, sizzled in his debut sprinting over the Del Mar main track while recording a sensational 98 Beyer speed figure but came back to earth when scoring in gate-to-wire fashion over a strongly biased pro-speed track at Santa Anita in the American Pharoah S.-G1 in his next appearance, earning a somewhat pedestrian 85 Beyer in that victory. Yes, we still like Corniche, but recognize he could be vulnerable due to a volatile pace scenario.
So, let’s take a close look at the two most dangerous closers in the field. Oviatt Class, a four-length maiden winner at Del Mar at mile, made up a ton of ground against the bias to finish a better-than-looked third in the American Pharoah, has trained extremely well since, and represents a genuine threat over a track we know he likes and at a distance that should promote his style. Is he good enough? On paper, maybe not yet, but such are the things that make long shots pull off upsets, especially when you’re dealing with a developing two-year-old sired by Bernardini, whose offspring generally mature later on. Also worth consideration is Commandperformance, a twice-started maiden that closed with courage to finish second to Jack Christopher in the Champagne S.-G1 and seems certain to improve with age, experience, distance, and development, as one would expect from a son of Union Rags. Like Oviatt Class, he’ll need a pace meltdown to have his best chance. It could happen.
Notable Workouts:
Jack Christopher (October 29, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:00.4b). Grade: B+
Breezing every step of the way outside Gerrymander (same time, also under a tight hold) and looked quite sharp as usual, plenty left while appearing eager and right on edge. Can he handle two turns? Hard to be sure (bred to sprint) but may be able to stay a middle distance on class alone.
View Workout Video
Oviatt Class (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Broke off a few lengths behind Miss Everything (5f, 1:01.3h) and inhaled workmate in the final furlong while under some coaxing, plenty left late splits of :23.4, :35.3 and 1:00.1 for Desormeaux. Stretch runner appears to be improving all the time and broke his maiden over the Del Mar main track during the summer season. Will be rolling late in the B.C, Juvenile.
View Workout Video
Corniche (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B+
In company inside Enbarr (same time) and did nicely without being asked, splits of :23.1, :48 and 1:00.3 while traveling from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole, solid work. Maintains his form, probably a need-the-lead type at this stage of his career.
View Workout Video
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RACE 10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Modern Games; 3-Dakota Gold; 6-Mackinnon; 10-Potfolio Company
Forecast: Modern Games is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and represents an excellent gamble at that price. The tight Del Mar turf course with a short run-in from the top of the stretch to the wire always is problematic and it never should be surprising when the best horse is beaten due to traffic, but this European colt has the type of natural talent and acceleration to win this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, His rail post position will allow for a ground-saving trip, but he’ll need to be extracted somewhere during the running – preferrable before the field heads up home – to secure his best chance. The C. Appleby-trained son of Dubawi was scintillating in victory at Newmarket in late September when winning the Sommerville S.-G3 while earning an outstanding Timeform rating of 102, and while today will be his first try over a mile the extra distance should only make him more formidable.
Dakota Gold appears to be the most dangerous of the North American contingent. Undefeated in two starts and highly impressive in both, the New York-bred son of Freud won the listed Nownownow S. over a mile on grass at Monmouth Park in his most recent appearance, drawing away with authority despite losing ground while wide most of the way. The D. Gargan-trained colt is drawn comfortable in the three-hole and with a clean break should find himself much closer to the pace than last time, perhaps even as a pace-stalker or presser. He’s highly-competitive on numbers and has plenty of further improvement in him.
Mackinnon, trained locally by D. O’Neill, has won his last three starts in visually pleasing style, with two of those victories accomplished over the same course and distance as today’s race. Not quite as fast on speed figures as Dakota Gold but developing with each outing, the son of American Pharoah likes to settle in mid-pack and then blast home, and with clear sailing from the head of the lane to the wire he’s certain to have a say in the matter in the closing stages. He’s looked terrific in the a.m. in recent weeks, so it’s not likely we’ve seen anything close to his best quite yet.
Notable Workouts:
Mackinnon (October 30, Del Mar, 6f, 1:14.4h). Grade: A-
Can’t verify the official final time but we caught him from the quarter pole to the wire in a sparkling :22.4 without really being asked, full of run while gobbling up the ground in the late stages. Gets better every time we see him.
View Workout Video
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Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Workout Report, Analysis, & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, November 6, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 10:15 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-One Fast Bro; 7-Via Egnatia
Forecast: One Fast Bro has never been off the board in five starts over the Del Mar turf course and has been no worse than second in each of his last four starts, including a solid runner-up try at this level last month at Santa Anita to subsequent Twilight Derby winner Subconscious. Drawn nicely inside and therefore guaranteed a ground-saving trip, the California-bred son of Coil is fast on figures and projects to settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Via Egnatia is raised in class following a pair of recent mid-level claiming victories that earned decent speed figures. He’ll have to step forward to seriously challenge top pick but if the R. Baltas-trained gelding isn’t policed on the front he could take this field a very long way. His record over the local lawn – two wins in four starts – is another positive factor. The bulk of our action will go to One Fast Bro, but we’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 10:50 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Lone Rock; 3-Cupid’s Claws; 4-Tizamagican
Forecast: These main track marathons are few and far between, but they’re always fun to watch, if not wager on. Lone Rock, listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite, was beaten at 10 cents on the dollar in the Grand Prix American Jockey Club S. at Belmont Park in mid-September, going down by length to his same-owner stable mate, the 18-1 long shot Locally Owned. The veteran son of Majestic Warrior and had no visible excuse, but he had won his previous four outings in dominating fashion so let’s operate under the assumption that he’ll bounce back today, though at 6/5 on the morning line he’ll offer little wagering value. Tizamagician, a proven marathoner and especially fond of the Del Mar main track, turned in a career top performance when runner-up to Tripoli in the Pacific Classic and then was below form when fifth after rating tactics were employed in the Awesome Again S.-G1 earlier this month. The son of Tiznow is more than capable of returning to winning form in this lesser assignment and likely will be on or near the lead throughout. Cupid’s Claws appears to be rounding back to form after finishing a close sixth (beaten less than two lengths) in the John Henry Turf Cup-G2 last month. A quality dirt marathoner when he’s on his game, the Kitten’s Joy gelding switches to L. Saez and offers decent price value at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Princess Grace; 7-Going Global
Forecast: Princess Grace and Going Global are difficult to separate. They’re both high class, thoroughly professional race mares who loved to win races, though on pure numbers a very slight edge might have to be given to ‘Grace. The daughter of Karakontie has been beaten just once in seven starts – she was second in the Valley View S-G3 at Saratoga after a premature move – and she’s already ventured to Del Mar once this year, having taken the Yellow Ribbon H.-G2 with a career top speed figure. K. Desormeaux, who was aboard in that win, reprises his role and most likely will have the M. Stidham-trained filly settled comfortably in the second flight before setting her down when the time is right. Going Global, a 3-year-old filly tackling older foes for the first time, has won five of six starts since being imported from Ireland. Most recently, she produced a strong victory in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 and has done extremely good work in the a.m. since that score to keep her right on edge. In a race we’d rather watch than wager on, both should be included in rolling exotic play, with a narrow edge on top to Princess Grace.
Notable Workouts:
Going Global (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h). Grade: B+
Broke off several lengths behind Coulthard and Hollywoodhellraisr (both 5f, 1:00h TT) and closed the gap through the lane to finished lapped on the other two without ever being asked in a highly-impressive training track drill for P. D’Amato, splits of :24.1, :36 flat and :59.3, full of run late. Razor sharp and ready to fire another big shot.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Post: 12:05 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Gamine
Forecast: Gamine almost certainly will be the shortest-priced favorite in the two-day, 14-race Breeders’ Cup carnival. The public choice in every one of her races, never having closed at odds higher than even money. she’s a winner of nine of 10 outings, the defending race champion, perfect in four starts at this seven-furlong distance, and the likely controlling speed, though she can just as easily stalk and pounce if required. When last seen in late August at Saratoga, the daughter of Into Mischief captured the Ballerina H.-G1 despite wanting to lug out through the lane, and the B. Baffert-trained filly might be vulnerable if she pulls the same stunt at Del Mar, though it should be noted that in her recent workouts she has breezed straight and true for the most part. Simply put, the only way she loses is if she somehow beats herself.
While Bella Sofia usually appears somewhat ordinary in her morning trials, the bargain basement $20,000 Ocala June Sale purchase is an entirely different performer when the lights go on. Successful in five of six career starts and a facile winner of the Test S.-G1 in her only prior outing at seven furlongs, the R. Rodriguez-trained filly isn’t nearly as fast as Gamine on pure numbers, but her figures continue to rise with each start, so a career top performance (which she will need to make a race of it) seems possible. We suspect she’ll wind up a distant second choice in the wagering over Ce Ce, a genuine and versatile West Coast Grade-1 winner but a non-threatening third behind Gamine in the Ballerina S.-G2 two races back and with just one triple-digit Beyer speed figure in her 15-race career.
Notable Workouts:
Gamine (October 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Easy work, breaking off several lengths behind Ginja (5f, 1:01.4h) and going on by when ready under very light coaxing only, splits of :24.2, :48 flat and 1:00.3 for B. Baffert. Not a scintillating work but more than good enough; will be odds-on in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Post: 12:40 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Lieutenant Dan; 5-Arrest Me Red; 6-A Case of You; 10-Gear Jockey
Forecast: Races at five furlong over the Del Mar turf course that offer a short run in from the top of the stretch to the wire present a near impossible task for the deep closers and an extremely difficult one for those not able to be within striking range right from the bell. Traffic can be a huge issue in a 14-runner field. Horses that save ground somewhere in mid-pack and wait for an opening must possess an electric turn of foot when the opportunity presents itself. Taking the overland route isn’t necessarily advised either, though at least those rallying wide have the opportunity to build momentum. Jockeys who are not accustomed to the short stretch often wait until the field straightens for home to make their move, but by then it’s often too late. Best place to be? On a clear early lead (that would be lovely), in a pace-stalking position, or in the second flight in the middle lanes, where a jockey can choose a viable path - either inside or outside - depending upon where and when room develops.
It’s more than likely that the group with finish in a heap, so a spread strategy in rolling exotic play is required. Whether or not he’s good enough remains to be seen, but the lightly raced and rapidly improving Arrest Me Red has the style and profile for the course and upside that some of the others might not have. A winner of four of six career starts, including the recent Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational-G1 with a career top 100 Beyer speed figure (making him a solid threat based on that number alone), the son of Pioneerof the Nile can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so if he has the good fortune to break running the W. Ward-trained sophomore will almost certainly have every chance to fire his best shot. We actually like him quite a bit better than his lower-priced stable mate Golden Pal, who is the quicker of the two but is slower on speed figures and vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong.
A Case of You arrives fresh from a career top performance when winning the prestigious Prix de l’Abbaye-G1 over the five-furlong straightaway course at Longchamp. Very much like Arrest Me Red, he’s a 3-year-old with rapidly improving form. Interestingly, he was assigned a Timeform rating of 122 in that victory, eight points better than what Glass Slipper earned in her win in that same race last year. He’s not particularly quick during the early stages of his races and as such may be taking the worst of it at Del Mar, but it’s safe to say that his closing kick matches anything in the field and with good racing luck the Irish-bred colt has a chance to make some serious noise in the final furlong.
Lieutenant Dan is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar course and distance, and while we’ve never considered him to be a world class grass sprinter, this California-bred gelding is a winner of four of his last five starts and has speed figures that fit. He’s proven to be quick enough to secure a favorable early position and generally provides a second move under pressure close home, so we’ll respect the S. Miyadi-trained gelding enough to include him on our ticket.
Gear Jockey earned a career top speed figure winning a Grade-3 sprint stakes at Kentucky Downs in mid-September, but the Del Mar course and distance couldn’t be more different, so we really can’t use that race to promote his chances under these conditions. However, the son of Twirling Candy has a dangerous late kick and could make an impact if the pace types falter and he get the opportunity to build up his moment with clear sailing from the head of the lane to the wire. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least hit the board.
As for Glass Slippers, she reproduced the same electric closing kick that had resulted in her 2020 victory at Longchamp when pulling off a 10-1 surprise in the B.C. Turf Sprint last year. She’s back to defend her crown, but she had an extra half-furlong and a longer stretch to work with at Keeneland and benefitted from a rather fortunate journey to register the upset from off the pace. Winless in three starts this year and under the conditions that really don’t suit her style at Del Mar, the English-bred mare is bet-against.
Notable Workouts:
Lieutenant Dan (October 29, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B
Usually a lazy sort in the a.m. but went well (for him) in this solo half mile training track drill, late changing leads but finishing with a bit more interest than usual, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.2. Always fires his best shot when it counts and is perfect over the Del Mar turf course.
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Arrest Me Red (October 31, Keeneland, 4f, :51.4b TC DU). Grade: B
Breezing work around dogs over soft course stalking Kaufymaker (4f, :52b, TC DU) and finishing down the lane with that one, both under a tight hold with both appearing to be eager and have plenty of energy. Sharp breeze despite slow final time.
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RACE 6: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Post: 1:30 PT Grade:
Use: 3-Ginobili; 5-Life Is Good
Forecast: It appears that Life Is Good has no chinks in his armor. Perhaps for the purpose of finding “value” you may be inclined to try to beat the obvious heavy favorite in this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but as hard as we’ve looked, we can locate nothing on his resume that suggests he won’t fire his best shot. Clearly the speed of the speed, this gifted front-runner showed in his 2-year-old debut last year that he can easily cope with Del Mar’s main track when he crushed maidens by more than nine lengths. During the winter, he won both of his two-turn races - each at the expense of subsequent Kentucky Derby-G1 first place finisher Medina Spirit – before suffering an injury that prevented a Triple Crown campaign. Beaten in a photo in a superlative effort off the bench by Jackie’s Warrior in the H. A. Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga in August in his first start in almost six months for new trainer T. Pletcher, the son of Into Mischief didn’t have any negative reaction from that tough, grueling effort. He returned to toy with his outclassed foes in the Kelso H.-G2 in late September in a race that was strategically chosen to easily tick him over for this much more important event.
Ginobili was always cut out to be a decent sort of racehorse – he finished a close second to undefeated Nadal in the 7F San Vicente S.-G2 as a 3-year-old – but it’s only been in his last two starts that the son of Munnings has truly become a legitimate top-class main track miler. Both of those outstanding victories, a runaway allowance win followed by an equally sharp performance in the Pat O’Brien S.-G2, were accomplished over the quirky Del Mar dirt surface. Local players know that there is no track on the West Coast in which the horse-for-course angle plays a more significant role in the handicapping process than at Del Mar. For that reason alone, you have to afford the R. Baltas-trained gelding something of a legitimate look and therefore use him as a small saver or a back-up in rolling exotic play.
Notable workouts:
Life Is Good (October 29, Belmont Park, 4f, :49.3b TT). Grade: B+
Under a stout hold throughout, full of run for T. Pletcher while being kept on edge for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Ready for a career top performance, it would seem.
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RACE 7: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Rougir; 6-Love; 7-War Like Goddess; 8-Love Only You; 12-Audarya
Forecast: There have been several excellent renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but none as deep and contentious as this one, at least in recent years. There are at least five in the field that could, or should, be favored and are very difficult to separate. Love, believed to be only a small notch below Breeders’ Cup Turf-G1 favorite Tarnawa, was pre-entered in that race as well as the B.C. Filly & Mare Turf-G1, with trainer Aidan O’Brien ultimately opting to keep the daughter of Galileo with the girls. A five-time Group-1 winner in England but somewhat disappointing in her last three winless starts, she nonetheless is more than capable of winning a race of this quality with her top performance. The $1.8 million earner (and a winner of seven of 14 career starts) has the type of tactical speed that should keep her within striking range no matter how the pace flow unfolds, and while she was tagged right on the wire when nosed out as the favorite in the Blandford S.-G3 at The Curragh last time she hit the front too soon and probably doesn’t even know she lost. If there is a concern, is that her blood wasn’t right earlier in the month, necessitating her withdrawal from a scheduled appearance on Champions Day at Ascot earlier this month. She’s been deemed healthy enough by trainer A. O’Brien to have made the trip the Del Mar, so we’ll approach this race under the assumption she’s set to perform to high her standards.
War Like Goddess can’t quite boast the glitzy resume that Love can, but that doesn’t mean that she’s not just as good. Successful in six of seven career starts, her last three by daylight with ease and confidence, the daughter of English Channel owns an intense turn of foot that can neutralize any type of pace flow. According to her speed figures, she has produced a forward move in every one of her career starts and may need another one to defeat Love. But there’s no reason to believe she can’t rise to the occasion.
Audarya is the defending B.C. Filly & Mare champion, having won this race at Keeneland last year at odds of 17-1. She won’t be that price today. Her extreme outside post position number 12 is of no concern for a filly that will lag early and explode late, and though she was a close fourth to Rougir in the Prix de l’Opera-G1 in France last month over heavy ground, today’s firm grass course should bring out her best. Winless in five starts this year but with Timeform ratings that say she’s every bit as good now as ever, the French-bred filly is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.
Love Only You showed her quality last winter on the world’s stage when finishing a superb third – beaten just a half-length – behind Mishriff in the Dubai Sheema Classic, then went to Hong Kong to win a Group-1 race less than a month later. The pride of Japan, a winner of six of 14 races arrives fresh after 10 weeks of vacation time and if she brings her best stuff she’s more than capable of winning.
If you have room on your rolling exotic ticket, you probably should consider including Rougir, at least as a back-up or a saver. Her recent win at Longchamp was well-earned, though a case could be made that the deep going promoted her chances. She’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line, a decent sort of price for a Group-1 winning French filly who has won or been beaten a neck or less in each of her last four starts.
Notable Workouts:
War Like Goddess (October 31, Del Mar, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B+
Worked alone on main track while displaying plenty of energy and looking as good as ever, final quarter mile without being asked in a sharp :23.3. Has never taken a backward move according to her speed figures and looks ready for another career top in the B.C. Filly & Mare Turf.
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RACE 8: Breeders’ Cup Sprint Post: 2:38 PT Grade:
Use: 2-Jackie’s Warrior; 9-Dr. Schivel
Forecast: After a brief flirtation with distance racing early in 2021 to determine his viability for the spring classics, Jackie’s Warrior was returned to his roots as a dominating one-turn specialist and is every bit deserving of his 6/5 favorite’s role in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1. Thoroughly impressive when earning terrific speed figures in each of his last three outings, all wins, the S. Asmussen-trained colt most recently was assigned a career top 110 Beyer number when capturing the Gallant Bob S.-G2 under wraps. However, it was his performance two runs back that was his most impressive. In stalking and then out-finishing the brilliant Life Is Good in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga, the son of Maclean’s Music displayed championship qualities that are expected to continue under regular rider J. Rosario in a race that he projects to control from gate to wire.
Dr. Schivel is comfortably drawn on the far outside, which means the gifted son of Violence can pop and go or stalk and pounce. He’ll need a significant amount of improvement to put a scare into Jackie’s Warrior, but the twice-beaten in seven starts sophomore is a perfect three-for-three over the Del Mar main track and thus owns the home court advantage. Whether or not he’s good enough can be questioned but from all indications – including his appearance and his workouts – the M. Glatt-trained colt is prepared for a career top effort. He is worth including somewhere on your ticket for protection.
Notable Workouts:
Jackie’s Warrior (October 31, Del Mar, 3f, :36.4h). Grade: B+
Under a hammerlock through the lane while appearing ready to explode, final quarter mile in :24.3. Should handle the Del Mar main track without any issues.
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Dr. Schivel (October 30, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.2h). Grade: B+
Broke off behind Deservedly (5f, :58.3h) and finished down the lane with workmate to be head-and-head at the wire, splits of :23.2, :34.3 and :58.2, niggled at late, solid work for high class sprinter who always seems to save his best for the afternoon. Loves the Del Mar main track and will lay his body down when trying to stay with Jackie’s Warrior.
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RACE 9: Breeders’ Cup Mile. Post: 3:20 PT Grade: A-
Single: 3-Space Blues
Forecast: Simply stated, European invader Space Blues is an exceptional racehorse and is superior to his North American counterparts. A winner of 10 of 18 career starts, including seven of his last 10 (all in top class stakes company), the five-year-old son of Dubawai will be stretching out to a mile for the first time following a recent series of outstanding seven furlong performances, but he should have no problem with today’s extra distance and in fact gives every indication that he’ll be quite comfortable over the Del Mar turf course’s tight layout and the extremely firm ground that it offers. From a good inside draw, world class jockey W. Buick can settle somewhere in mid-pack with cover and sit still to the far turn, at which time he’ll need to find room to allow the C. Appleby-trained horse to uncork the type of acceleration than none of his rivals can match. He’s the morning line favorite at 3-1 and deservedly so. Somewhere along the sequence we have to take a stand, and it’s in this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Mile that we will do just that. There’s always a traffic issue to worry about in a 14 runner event over a course with a short run to the wire after the field straightens for home but with any degree of good racing luck, we’re confident the Irish-bred veteran will deliver the goods in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Malathaat; 6-Letruksa
Forecast: Letruska has won 17 of 22 races during her career, including six out of seven in 2021, and will deserve plenty of support in the year-end voting for Horse of the Year. She is as genuine and consistent as they come and is the deserved 8/5 morning line favorite for this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1. Always most effective as the controlling speed, the Kentucky-bred daughter of Super Saver will once again be on the front end, though there are others in the field, such as Private Mission, Horologist, and Shedaresthedevil, that will allow no breathers along the way. She will have to earn it.
Malathaat, clearly the best 3-year-old filly in North America, steps out of her comfort zone as she faces older mares for the first time, and, yes, she will need a career top effort to defeat Letruska and the others. We think she is capable of doing just that. A winner of six of seven career outings including three Grade-1’s, she has been freshened since winning the Alabama S.-G1 at Saratoga in August and has trained like a filly that is both physically and mentally ready to take on the new challenge. Most of Curlin’s offspring get better with age, maturity, and distance, and this T. Pletcher-trained 3-year-old seems primed to make the next leap. Based on the projected race flow, Johnny V. can settle somewhere in the second flight behind those that will be dealing with Letruska during the early stages of the race. He’ll move closer as the field enters the far turn. Then he’ll push the button. We’ll be gambling that she’ll provide the proper response.
Notable Workouts:
Malathaat (October 29, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing throughout outside Vindictive (same time) for T. Pletcher, never asked a drop while proving best late by a long head. Couldn’t be looking any better, ready for a career top performance.
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RACE 11: Breeders’ Cup Turf. Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 7-Walton Street; 8-Broome; 13-Tarnawa
Forecast: European shippers have won 17 of the past 22 renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, so it makes perfect sense to first focus on the foreign contingent in researching and handicapping this $4,000,000 mile and one-half marathon. Defending race champion Tarnawa returns to defend her crown and based on her current form appears to be every bit as good this year as last. She’s fresh, too, having had just three starts in 2021. A winner of a Group-3 affair in Ireland in early August in her seasonal bow, she next ran arguably the best race of her career when narrowly missing to likely European Horse of the Year St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion S.-G1 the following month. Then, most recently, the D. Weld-trained mare lost nothing in defeat when second, beaten less than a length, in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1 at Longchamp three weeks ago. Effective on any ground but quite comfortable over the extremely firm, pool table-type grass track at Del Mar, the five-year-old mare is blessed with an intense turn of foot and can be expected to produce a winning late kick, assuming she has the good fortune of to avoid traffic trouble from the top of the stretch to the wire.
At seven years of age, the English-based Walton Street has never been better. His 119 British Race Form figure earned in his nearly six-length romp in the Canadian International S.-G1 at Woodbine in mid-September was a career top, and to place that in context with our top pick, that rating was just three points below the one assigned to Tarnawa in her recent ‘Arc runner-up performance. The C. Appleby-trained gelding is hardly out of his element against world class competition and is a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.
Price players may want to toss in Broome. Why not include a European-based, Group-1 winning millionaire trained by A. O’Brien and ridden by Frankie? Originally listed at 20-1 on the morning line (he may go lower after the scratch of the major contender Domestic Spending), the five-year-old stayer has Timeform ratings that fit with most of these and will offer value in the vertical exotics even if he just manages to hit the board.
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RACE 12: Breeders’ Cup Classic. Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Hot Rod Charlie; 4-Essential Quality; 8-Medina Spirit
Forecast:This much we’re certain of: Knicks Go will attempt to employ his usual gate-to-wire tactics in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1. How many of his nine wins were accomplished when he failed to make the early running? That number would be zero.
But unlike in his three most recent dominating front-running victories - the Corn Husker H.-G3, the Whitney S.-G1, and the Lukas Classic-G1 - the other main players in this race aren’t simply going to hand him the front end on a silver platter. This time, he’ll have to work to get the lead and work even harder to keep it. Medina Spirit, himself victorious in five of nine career outings, each in wire-to-wire fashion, may not be as committed to the front as Knicks Go, but there’s no way he’ll be backing off early. In fact, if Medina Spirit can somehow outrun Knicks Go early as his connections certainly hope he can, the B. Baffert-trained colt may be quite capable of reproducing his runaway score in the Awesome Again S.-G1, the race last month that produced his highest-rated victory in a career that remains highlighted by his first place finish in the Kentucky Derby-G1.
Where does the projected race flow leave Hot Rod Charlie? Probably in an ideal second flight, stalking position, similar to the trip he enjoyed when crossing the wire first in the Haskell Invitational G-1, a victory that was taken from him due to the carelessness of his jockey, F. Prat, who caused a mid-stretch spill. ‘Charlie returned to win the Pennsylvania Derby-G1 in September with a career top 111 Beyer speed figure that Knicks Go has exceeded just once in his 23-race career and four points better than anything Medina Spirit has ever achieved. A string of typically strong recent workouts suggests the D. O’Neill-trained colt still has additional improvement in him, and at anywhere near his morning line of 4-1 the son of Oxbow offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Essential Quality, the colt that edged Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont S.-G1 and then subsequently won both the Jim Dandy S.-G2 and Travers S.-G1, remains the leader for an Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old colt division, but in his first start since late August the son of Tapit surely will need a career top effort to win what is expected to be his final career race. He’s been beaten just once in nine lifetime outings – he was fourth without mishap behind Medina Spirit in the Kentucky Derby-G1 – and while we may question the ceiling of his natural talent there’s no doubting his will. Our first inclination was to leave him off our ticket, but we’re doing that with Knicks Go., so for now, he’s on. He’s simply too good of a racehorse.
Notable Workouts:
Hot Rod Charlie (October 30, Del Mar, 7f, 1:26.4h). Grade: B+
Broke off behind Khantoro d’Oro (5f, 1:01.2h) and after using that one as a target easily drew clear through the under mild coaxing before traveling out all the way around to the six furlong pole, :24.3, :36.3, 1:00 flat (to the wire) and 1:12.3 to the seven furlong pole before galloping out in 1:26.3. Coming up to the Classic as good as one would want.
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Medina Spirit (October 29, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:11.3h). Grade: B+
In company inside Ax Man (same time) for B. Baffert while working from the five furlong pole around to the seven furlong pole, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :59.2 and 1:11.3, easy to the top then mildly coaxed through the lane to prove a tad the best in yet another strong drill. Comes up to the Classic with a strong foundation and is plenty fit for his best effort.
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