Set back that alarm if you’re on the East Coast or at least be sure to get your bets in before bed, because first post at Happy Valley is a ripe 6:40AM ET on Wednesday and we’re getting back to it!
One thing to keep in mind with Hong Kong racing is the reliability of the morning line. Not only will the morning line prices change before the pools open to US bettors, but it’s not uncommon to see a double-digit line leave the gate at sub-2/1. My best advice is to handicap the races first, find your best plays, and then if you’re around when the markets open to adjust accordingly. Relying on the morning lines listed on your ADW to influence your decision is often a losing battle.
Helpful Resources
Breaking into a new racing circuit can be a challenge, but the Hong Kong Jockey Club sits at the middle of this poker table dealing free past performances, pace projections, and ample resources for players new to the scene. Download the program and check out their detailed explanation of how to read their past performances.
Here are some helpful links to get started:
Happy Valley – April 16
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further.
Race 1 | 1000 Meters (5 Furlongs) | Class 5 | 6:40AM ET
Key: #8 URBAN TRIUMPH (21/1 ML)
We open Wednesday’s card with a five-furlong straightaway sprint for Hong Kong’s lowest class rating above Griffin (aka two-year-old first-time starters). My ratings have the top choice as #6 MODEST GENTLEMAN (6/1 ML) followed by #7 RAGNARR (3/1 ML), and rounding out the top three is our key for this race.
#8 URBAN TRIUMPH (21/1 ML) is having a rough go of things as of late. The five-year-old gelding is dropping back to Class 5 to try again in a new barn. Granted, the new barn is hitting at a much lower clip (8.63%-win rate to new barn’s 3%), but my ratings have this horse far outperforming the results of his last five races. Michael Chang is going to race this horse at five furlongs for the first time in his career and he gets a favorable middle-pack post in this all-out sprint.
Understanding we’re not choosing the outright most likely winner, we’re going to key our pick with two others who are better on paper and more likely to win, but also more likely to go off at a short price. The Exacta and Quinella pools in Hong Kong are often massive and lay the path for some big payouts if you can get a big price on your ticket. The aim here is either the new barn gets this horse looking right and he springs the upset, or he overperforms and finds his way up for second place. Both should pad the bankroll for the rest of the day.
Betting Strategy
Exacta Key Box – 8 w/ 6,7
//
Race 2 | 2200 Meters (1 3/8 Miles) | Class 4 | 7:10AM ET
Key: #2 SERANGOON (21/1 ML)
Do I think this horse is going off anywhere close to 21/1? No. Do I think there are others who are more likely to take a lot of public money? Yes.
Our top pick, #2 SERANGOON (21/1 ML), is my top-rated choice in the power ratings with a morning line that’s too intriguing to pass up. He’s returning to this four-turn course and going back to 1 3/18 miles where he’s 5-1-1-1 in his career. His last two starts were against a quicker pace than he’s used to at shorter distances than he has had success in. Stretching back out against a field that should move much more modestly, I like his chances to repeat his winning performance from February 26th.
I’m going to use this gelding in combination with the power rating’s fourth choice, #6 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT (11/1 ML) who gets Hong Kong’s top mount, Zac Purton (24.14% win rate). ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT is adding an extra furlong after coming up 1-1/4 lengths short at ten furlongs and closing. In just his fifth start in Hong Kong, he gets a massive improvement in the irons and looks primed to take advantage of this longer distance. Whether he ends up finding the winner’s circle, or falling just short, we want this horse on our ticket when we leave the window.
Betting Strategy
Exacta Box – 2,6
Win/Place - #2 SERANGOON (at odds of 10/1 or better)
.svg){kind=logo}
