Frank Carulli: Saratoga Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, September 2, 2022

Saratoga’s Late Pick 4 wager on Fridays in August yielded only four winning favorites and an average 50-cent payout of $831 spanning the last three weeks. Will the trend continue this Friday, Sept. 2? Here’s a look at the action with a suggested play:

SAR 7th race (4:29 EST) -- Three entrants make their turf debut and the others are a combined 5-for-61 on the lawn, so going with four price shots in a do-or-die leadoff leg. The longshots include: GINNSU WARRIOR, finished between a pair of next-out winners in a 7F main-track sprint and returns to the lawn for a 24-percent claim barn; MOMENTUS, who knocked off a 7-to-5 debut MSW favorite in his first start, was rained off the turf twice recently and looks to carry his speed farther with blinkers on; SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE, who has good turf bloodlines but tries it for the first time for a high-percentage new acquisition barn; and VIVE BIEN, who tired against a pair of next-out allowance winners and starts fresh off a series of works on the Saratoga lawn for the always-dangerous Saffie Joseph barn.    

SAR 8th race (5:05 EST) -- Couldn’t have been more impressed than DANCING BUCK’S repeat win on the cutback to a short sprint. He changed tactics, swung wide off a ground-saving trip at the top of the stretch, inhaled the leaders with a quick burst of speed and was geared down late. Didn’t think much of the field at the time, but the two runners who came back finished 1-2 and were noses apart in a 2X allowance with 93 Beyers. He is today’s solo play.    

SAR 9th race (5:39 EST) -- Since May 20, the 10 entrants in the $250,000 Grade II Prioress Stakes are a combined 16-for-24 with two G-III wins, a G-III runner-up and four minor stakes victories. It’s an ‘ALL’ punch from top to bottom of the 6F sprint.

SAR 10th race (6:13 EST) – MEDIA SENSATION returns to the turf and to MSW company off the claim. He nearly unseated the jockey at the start two starts back, awaited room behind a 3-way duel while saving ground until the stretch, then got caught late after he passed the pace setter. The horse who beat him came back and ran second in a $35,000/n2L claimer at 20-1 odds. He is a must use at 10-1 on the morning line. CURLIN’S WISDOM finished in the money all three times, spanning three distances, when he didn’t have a trouble line as he did last out on the turf. Trainer Linda Rice also sends out first-time starter NYSHARES, whose dam, May Shares, was 2-3 and a stakes winner on the grass. CONQUIST appeared headed to victory in a longer turf route but drifted late and got caught.  

Suggested 50-cent Ticket

SAR 7th Race: 1, 7, 9, 10
SAR 8th Race: 4
SAR 9th Race: ALL
SAR 10th Race: 1, 4, 6, 8

COST: $80

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