Frank Carulli: Saratoga Belmont Stakes Festival All-Grade 1 Pick 3 Analysis | Friday, June 7, 2024

The Belmont Stakes will be the icing on the cake for a star-studded weekend of action at Saratoga. But before the third jewel of the Triple Crown heads to the starting gate Saturday, the stage will be set with an all-Grade 1 Pick 3 as part of the 12-race Friday card. Here’s a look at the $1 Pick 3 with a suggested $36 play.

SAR 10th race (5:30 p.m. EST) -- Trainer Chad Brown looks to continue a remarkable 6-for-7 run in the Just A Game Stakes – and he figures to do so with five of the seven entrants. WHITEBEAM gets top billing after she survived a race-long duel in the Grade 3 Beaugay before the deep-closing winner burst on the scene in the closing yards. CHILI FLAG, 8/4-3-1 with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, handles firm and soft turf and doesn’t shy from the photo-finish camera as she looks for a graded stakes three-peat, albeit her first in Grade 1 company. GINA ROMANTICA, a Grade 1 grass route winner at ages 2 and 3, deserves a chance to rebound from a sub-par seasonal debut. She posted a 105 Beyer when she won the Grade 1 First Lady, then got beat a length against the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall.

SAR 11th race (6:05 p.m. EST) -- How deep is the New York Stakes for older fillies and mares at 1-3/16 miles on the turf? Consider this: Three of the four Grade 1 winners in the field – McKULICK (pictured above), FEV ROVER and ASPEN GROVE – are 8-1, 15-1 and 20-1, respectively, on the morning line. WAR LIKE GODDESS, the beaten favorite in this race last year, won three graded stakes on the Saratoga lawn and posted three triple-digit Beyer speed figures on soft footing in her last seven starts, a point worth noting with a 55-percent chance of rain in the Friday forecast. AMERICAN SONJA also likes soft footing – and she’s a much better price. She made a good first impression in the U.S. when third in the Saratoga Oaks last August. She bid 3-wide into the far turn to take the lead, but drifted extremely wide at the top of the stretch, exchanged bumps with the runner-up and was no match for the winning favorite. She returns to the states off a Group 3 victory in France off a seven-month layoff.  ENGLISH ROSE, in-hand until the top of the stretch in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, couldn’t reach the 25-1 pace controller, but she finished gamely in her U.S. debut and is a must use in the always dangerous Charles Appleby barn. The well-traveled STAR FORTRESS makes the ticket at 20-1 odds. She tracked a snails-like pace in the Grade 3 Sheepshead Bay and closed with a flourish to just miss pulling off the upset.

SAR 12th race (6:40 p.m. EST) -- The top two finishers in the Kentucky Oaks reunite in the Grade 1 Acorn at the same distance. THORPEDO ANNA went to the head of the head of the 3-year-old fillies class with a convincing wire-to-wire victory in the slop, earning her second consecutive 90-plus Beyer speed figure. JUST F Y I broke from post 12 in the 14-horse Oaks, took aim at THORPEDO ANNA but finished 4-3/4 lengths behind. She worked a pair of bullets since then at Saratoga, where she won the first start of her career during an unbeaten freshman season. MY MANE SQUEEZE was outrun behind the top pair, but she was reportedly was on edge in the paddock and fractious in the gate, prompting trainer Mike Maker to tell Daily Racing Form “she deserves a chance” at a rematch, a point perhaps validated with a follow-up win in the Grade 2 Eight Belles.

Suggested $1 Ticket
SAR 10th Race: 3, 6, 7
SAR 11th Race: 2, 5, 10, 11
SAR 12th Race: 4, 5, 9
Cost for $1 ticket: $36

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