Frank Carulli: Pimlico Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, May 12, 2023

Maryland racing action returned to Pimlico this week in advance of the May 20 Preakness Stakes. Favorites dominated during opening week in 2022. From 18 main-track sprints, six favorites and eight others at 3-1 or less prevailed, while eight went wire-to-wire. In 11 dirt route races, four favorites won and four others won at 5-2 or less. The 50-cent Late Pick 4 this Friday, May 12, features one dirt sprint, one dirt route and two turf races. Here’s a look at the action with a suggested $48 ticket:

PIM 6th race (2:58 EST) -- PETIT FILS returns from an eight-month layoff. He exited an August 28 turf route that produced three runners-up with an average 80 Beyer, then defeated Justintimforwin at Delaware Park before that rival won two $16,000 claiming races on the Tampa Bay Downs lawn by a combined 9-1/2 lengths. U S CONSTITUTION regressed last year after a 4-for-9 sophomore season when he earned $86k. He returns as a gelding off a good series of workouts. KRUG has a useful comeback race to summon, shaking a duel on the far turn before three rivals passed by, two of whom won in their next start. GUNSLINGER has five wire-to-wire wins on the lawn in his last seven starts and lands in an ideal spot to maximize his speed.

PIM 7th race (3:30 EST) -- CLUBMAN rallied 5-wide to a mid-stretch lead two starts back before class-dropping BOBBY G (17-73, $459k) foiled his three-peat attempt. I’ll take CLUBMAN to turn the tables off his third-place follow-up effort in a turf-to-dirt stakes race. GUILLAUME chased decent middle fractions on a muddy track and faded to last in a one-mile optional claiming race that timed faster than the Henry Clark Stakes that Clubman ran in. He gets in light-weighted from the rail and projects an ideal stalking trip. SHADY MUNNI is unproven at this level but he took a ton of late money when he won off the claim two starts ago, then tired in an allowance route after dueling with next-out repeater All Threes (4-19, $195k).  

PIM 8th race (4:03 EST) -- The nine entrants in the body of this 5F Maryland-bred allowance are a combined 6-for-69 on the turf. That being said, Bella Bettina is a viable longshot off a turf-to-dirt victory. She was outrun early, gathered momentum near the turn and sustained an inside rally to blow past the favorite in deep stretch. I’m using longshot PREPAREFORTAKEOFF on the ticket. She was claimed by unheralded trainer Hassan Elamri, who is 13-92 in turf races the last five years with an average $14.80 win mutuel. ISLAND PHILO rallied for two wins and two narrow defeats in her last eight turf sprints. FLIRTATIOUS LAD has faced better than most in here and has been up close for the stretch drive many times. IN VAIN is a deserving favorite with nearly $100k in turf earnings, but at 2-1 odds with a 1-13 record on the turf, try to beat her. (If #15 HALIEGH B. draws into the race off the also-eligible list, she is must use on turf or dirt.)

PIM 9th race (4:34 EST) – Trainer Jane Cibelli arrives from Gulfstream Park with two of the favorites. I like POGGIBONSI at the better price of 9-2. She drops out of a very strong $40k maiden sprint to start her career. She chased speedball Liana B, who led clear in all five of her starts thus far, before odds-on favorite Musical Design (7/2-3-0, $86k) rallied to win. Third-place finisher Sienna Lady broke her maiden for $40k next out and fifth-place finisher Tiz Business came back to break her maiden and win a $12,500/nw2 claimer last out. BABY SOX failed in a slow-paced 6F maiden claimer at Aqueduct at 1-to-5 odds, but she ships in from New York and adds blinkers for the high-percentage claim barn of trainer Rudy Rodriguez.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket
PIM 6th Race: 2, 3, 6, 10
PIM 7TH Race: 1, 3, 4
PIM 8th Race: 1, 2,6, 9
PIM 9th Race: 4, 8
Cost for 50-Cent Ticket: $48

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