Frank Carulli: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, October 4, 2024

Keeneland’s opening day card of the Fall Meet this Friday, Oct. 4, makes the grade by anyone’s standards. The Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes and Grade 2 Jessamine will feature 2-year-old fillies at 1-1/16 miles on the main track and turf, respectively, preceded by the Grade 2 Phoenix at 6F. It’s all part of a 50-cent Late Pick 4 that carries one million in reward points in 1/ST BET and Xpressbet's Hit & Split promo. Here’s a closer look:    

KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- FEDERAL JUDGE couldn’t have been more impressive than he was in a 6-1/2F allowance win at Saratoga, cruising to a clear lead, finding gears when needed and powering away from the field in the stretch. He is re-united with Prat and shortens up to his maiden-breaking distance in lieu of his first stakes win. NAKATOMI, runner-up in this race last year, showed speed from the rail in the G-1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga, backed off speedball Skelly (10-18, $1.7 million), a seven-time wire-to-wire stakes victor, then caught up in the final furlong to win. It was his first race in four months after he finished a troubled and fast-closing third in the G-1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, a return trip home that often spells doom for American-based runners. He fired a pair of :59-and-change bullet workouts to prepare for the $350,000 Phoenix for the 27-percent ‘repeat’ barn of trainer Wesley Ward. HERE MI SONG, a G-3 winner at 7F in his only start at Keeneland in April 2023, posted triple-digit Beyers in his last two starts, beating two sharp next-out winners in a minor stake at 6-1/2F, then finishing third in the $300,000 Louisville Thoroughbred Society at Churchill Downs, 1-1/4 lengths behind the aforementioned Skelly.  

KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- Sixteen 2-year-old fillies are entered but only 12 will run in the $350,000 Jessamine at 1-1/16 miles on the turf. The road to the winners’ circle could have begun at Kentucky Downs for two smashing first-out winners, who navigated different trips. ISLE OF CAPRI blasted to the lead, accelerated quickly in early stretch and won by 4 lengths in 1:15.2, only 3/5 of a second slower than allowance boys but 3/5 faster than older Maiden Special Weight fillies and mares on the same card. DESTINO D’ORO advanced 5-wide on the turn, inhaled the tiring leaders in the stretch to win going away at one mile and will appreciate the added ground.

KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- The 1-2 finishers in the G-1 Spinaway at Saratoga will reunite in the $600,000 Alcibiades, a key prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies next month. IMMERSIVE got the money in the Spinaway, rallying 6-wide on a very muddy track to win going away in the final furlong at 7F. But QUIET SIDE had the tougher trip, breaking out at the start, pressing a contentious pace in the 4-path and emerging with a clear stretch lead before tiring. Both are bred to handle more distance, a key note as all eight entrants make their two-turn debut. CONTINUITY beat two non-descript fields at 6F to start her career – her rivals are 9/0-0-2 since then with a top 54 Beyer on dirt -- but she has the bloodlines to go longer and improved her Beyer speed figure by 41 points with a sustained 4-wide rally. She did enough to earn a 20-1 longshot spot on the ticket.  

KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- It’s one thing when 9 of the 12 entrants in the main body of this 5-1/2F turf allowance arrive from different tracks. It’s another thing when they are a combined 20-for-49 on the lawn, when half the field carries six-figure grass bankrolls, when four won in their last start with an average 81 Beyer and when two others were stakes-placed. It’s an “ALL” punch in the final leg of the Pick 4.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket

KEE 7th Race: 1, 4
KEE 8th Race: 2, 6
KEE 9th Race: 1, 7, 8
KEE 10th Race: ALL

Cost: $72

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