Frank Carulli: Del Mar Pick 3 Analysis | Friday, September 6, 2024

California-bred horses will be in the spotlight as Del Mar’s final weekend of the current meet breaks from the starting gate Friday, Sept. 6. The first race drew a full field of 11 fillies for a one-mile Maiden Special Weight turf test, followed by the featured $100,000 I’m Smokin Stakes for homebred 2-year-olds at 6F on the main track. Add to that another crowded MSW grass mile and it makes for an inviting Pick 3 wager. Here’s a closer look and a suggested $1 Pick 3 ticket that costs $30:

DMR 1st race (6:00 p.m. EST) --MISS WILL steps back into the MSW ranks with improving form from the rail. She ‘came under a ride’ on the final turn last out but finished willingly behind a pair of sub 2-to-1 favorites who were class dropping. Her full brother, Old Pal, was 3-8 and a stakes winner of $220k on the turf. ON THE EQUINOX swung 5-wide at the top of the stretch and got up to finish second in a 5F grass sprint dominated by deep closers. Her trainer, Craig Lewis, is 13/3-2-3 in the last year with second-time maiden starters. LADY MONCLAIRE made first run in the same race but flattened out off a seven-month layoff. She has a good one-mile turf race to summon, when she dueled with 4-to-5 winner Lamporghini (8/2-3-0, $125k) and held third. SHE’S JUST GRAND is a longshot to include on the ticket. She trailed most of the way in her first start but showed some late interest on the rail for trainer Steve Miyadi, who is 6-for-29 the last three years with sprint-to-route turf runners at average win odds of 7-2. GLACIER RIM responded to more aggressive tactics and ‘showed the way until the final sixteenth’ in a photo-finish setback at 1-1/16 miles. But she’s 0-7 on turf, draws a difficult post and benefited when the odds-on favorite threw her head in the gate and was far back at the start.

DMR 2nd race (6:30 p.m. EST) -- R. HEISMAN was bumped, steadied and lacked room, but he still rallied in time to become the field’s first stakes winner and the one to beat in the $100,000 I’m Smokin. But trainer Peter Miller said in a published Daily Racing Form report that ‘I think we’re going to run in the (Grade 1 Del Mar) Futurity’ on Sunday. SHEA BRENNAN is today’s Pick 3 solo play after a smashing debut victory over the track. He spotted the field a couple lengths at the start, steadied on the backstretch and advanced on the rail before he powered clear in the stretch in a manner that suggests today’s extra furlong will be much to his liking. BODACIOUS has speed and a runaway first-out victory over R. HEISMAN on the resume, but he was no factor in two stakes attempts and, interestingly, removes blinkers today.    

DMR 3rd race (7:00 p.m. EST) -- LADY CHIC, a $500,000 sales buy, debuts for trainer John Sadler off a series of steady works on the main track. Her sire, Tapit, won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial and her dam, Luminance, ran second in the G-1 Santa Anita Derby, but neither raced on turf in their careers. TOES kept a busy August work schedule and has the bloodlines to factor. Her sire, City of Light, won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and her dam, Ask Me When, is a half sister to Miss Dracayrs, a Grade 2 turf winner for the same barn. But keep an eye on the odds because trainer Neil Drysdale is 1-23 the last three years with first-out maidens on the turf, only four of whom were dismissed at single-digit odds.  QUEEN KIMBY debuts off a series of 5F works at Los Alamitos for a trainer-jockey duo that is 42-178 the last three years with turf starters. She is by More Than Ready, the 11th-ranked turf sire in progeny earnings this year.

Suggested $1 Ticket
DMR 1st Race: 1, 2, 7, 10, 11
DMR 2nd Race: 1
DMR 3rd Race: 2, 7, 8
Cost: $30

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