By The Numbers: Power Ratings for Sha Tin's G3 Lion Rock Trophy

Saturday’s feature at Sha Tin is the Group 3 Lion Rock Trophy. This one-mile contest for three-year-olds and up sports a purse of HK$4,200,000 (about $535K USD) and is filled with stakes-tested horses going toe-to-toe. To help you with your handicapping, we ran the numbers and put together each horse’s weighted average speed figures heading into Saturday’s bout.

1 | RED LION (IRE) | 15/2
Burke Power Rating: 100 (3rd)
Jockey: H Bowman (10.98%) | Trainer: J Size (14.71%)

Forecast: Coming off a huge run winning a Group 1 stakes race, RED LION is looking to repeat his gate-to-wire performance against this Group 3 field. He gets the rail and retains the services of Hugh Bowman, both of which play very much in his front-running favor. He was 90/1 in his last outing and put up a 104 speed figure, which is a drastic jump from the mid-90s he had been running up to that point. This horse has potential if local-leader John Size has figured him out, but will have to repeat the race of his late career to do so.

2 | CHANCHENG GLORY (USA) | 26/1
Burke Power Rating: 97 (8th)
Jockey: L Ferraris (8.57%) | Trainer: K W Lui (12.7%)

Forecast: CHANCHENG GLORY is on a streak of three mediocre runs after putting up some impressive numbers back in January going nine furlongs. This race feels too steep, and the familiar field has beaten CHANCHENG GLORY without much hassle. Look for this horse to be in the back of the pack and try to outrun his odds in a tough spot.

3 | BEAUTY ETERNAL (AUS) | 53/1
Burke Power Rating: 95 (9th)
Jockey: J Oman (4.41%) | Trainer: J Size (14.71%)

Forecast: Leading jockey Zac Purton struggled to do much in a pair of Group 1 starts for this six-year-old gelding, and since losing that mount the horse just hasn’t been able to finish races easily. He always seems to find traffic and his speed figures are in a negative pattern coming into this one. As always, John Size runs a barn worth a look, but it’s an uphill battle.

4 | BEAUTY JOY (AUS) | 11/1
Burke Power Rating: 98 (5th)
Jockey: Z Purton (22.83%) | Trainer: A S Cruz (6.51%)

Forecast: BEAUTY JOY, coming off that April 27th Group 1 race that featured many from this field, gets the privilege of Zac Purton coming aboard for this outing. The pace of the race doesn’t benefit him, but Purton is definitely the jockey I’d want on my horse if I were looking to get back into form in a big spot. His speed ratings have been a class below some others with a few highlights, so the potential is there but he’ll likely need things to fall apart up front.

5 | HAPPY TOGETHER (AUS) | 13/1
Burke Power Rating: 98 (6th)
Jockey: A Badel (9.52%) | Trainer: F C Lor (10.79%)

Forecast: Another familiar foe, HAPPY TOGETHER finished almost three lengths back for sixth in the April 27th Group 1 but has certainly been trending well outside of his attempt at ten furlongs in February. The speed here is consistent, which is a big advantage in a circuit with a lot of variance, but the upside hasn’t quite been there since his 2025 campaign debut.

6 | SUNLIGHT POWER (AUS) | 2/1
Burke Power Rating: 103 (1st)
Jockey: H Bentley (5.84%) | Trainer: P F Yiu (13.71%)

Forecast: A deserving favorite, SUNLIGHT POWER has been trending up all year. The five-year-old son of CAPITALIST with a DUBAWI mare ran off the charts in Class 2 efforts this year before climbing back to the Group Stakes ranks. In his last race, he found some traffic and had to ease up early before making a dash at RED LION who fended him off. The potential is certainly there, but he could be looking at another task of hunting down a lone leader who has proven to be too much at a mile.

7 | DIVANO (AUS) | 15/2
Burke Power Rating: 102 (2nd)
Jockey: Y L Chung (5.76%) | Trainer: K W Lui (12.7%)

Forecast: DIVANO is an intriguing choice in this field, showing a lot of upside in his last five tries. He’s 15-5-2-4 lifetime, and could be set up perfectly with RED LION setting the pace on Saturday. DIVANO is making a step up in class, coming off a Class 2 run where he worked hard early to no benefit and faded quickly coasting through the finish. Even with that disappointing effort, his speed figure came in at 104 and can’t be overlooked. He gets some weight relief, carrying only 119 pounds in this one, and could be one to watch.

8 | ENCOUNTERED (IRE) | 26/1
Burke Power Rating: 93 (10th)
Jockey: K Teetan (4.65%) | Trainer: D J Hall (3.6%)

Forecast: This Irish-bred son of CHURCHILL has been trending poorly and was scratched from his last entry on May 4th. He’d been dropping in class up to this point and now finds himself back up in a Group 3 stakes race. This is a big step for this six-year-old who has seldomly seen the Winner’s Circle in his last two campaigns.

9 | JOHANNES BRAHMS (GB) | 7/2
Burke Power Rating: 98 (7th)
Jockey: A Atzeni (13.61%) | Trainer: P C Ng (3.7%)

Forecast: JOHANNES BRAHMS is a classic European style runner, sitting well back and making huge strides to close out races. He’s in new territory after a couple of tries in the Class 2 division and a handful of four-year-old restricted races, but certainly has shown the local scene enough to warrant a run here. The morning line is a bit short for his resume, but maybe the connections see something here and want to give him a fair shake at stakes glory.

10 | KA YING GENERATION (IRE) | 26/1
Burke Power Rating: 79 (11th)
Jockey: M F Poon (4.68%) | Trainer: P C Ng (3.7%)

Forecast: KA YING GENERATION is a tough runner to figure out, seeming fit for longer distances and cutting back here to just a mile, but this race doesn’t feel like the spot where he puts it all together. The son of CHURCHILL comes out of a barn struggling as of late and is up against a much more seasoned field of big stakes runners. He has run the mile course once in his career and didn’t hit the board. The morning line seems fair, and he may be slow out of the gate against the one-mile pace.

11 | PRAY FOR MIR (AUS) | 5/1
Burke Power Rating: 99 (4th)
Jockey: M Chadwick (6.62%) | Trainer: W K Mo (10.24%)

Forecast: PRAY FOR MIR has shown flashes that indicate there’s something to be found here, but he just hasn’t wanted to go by to find the wire in his last five starts. He can be a bit one-paced and runs at or below average through the final stretches of his races. With the speed found in this field, and the tactical abilities of others, he’s going to have to put up a serious effort to put away our Group 3 competitors on Saturday.

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