Breeders’ Cup prep season is in full effect, with many horses either having made or about to make their final starts before the World Championships are held at Keeneland in October. Each week, I’ll adjust my personal rankings accordingly based on races and news from the weekend prior. The juvenile divisions will enter the equation once the marquee summer meetings have concluded.
Below you’ll find my rankings for nine of the Breeders Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order. Any changes made, whether they be additions / subtractions or new comments, are italicized.
(NOTE: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint will be omitted from the rankings. The division is constantly in flux and there are too many who will be cross-entered to make that list worthwhile.)
CLASSIC
1 - Forever Young (last week: 1)
• To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man; entered Friday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at BEL before heading to Kentucky…the best in the world on dirt when on his game
2 - Magnitude (last week: 3)
• If you forgive his Saratoga form he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney
3 - Sovereignty (last week: 2)
• Maybe foolish to move him down a peg, but his unknown status due to the foot abscess has to be a concern; not sure he can afford any sort of hiccups if he’s to make the Breeders’ Cup
4 - Knightsbridge (last week: 4)
• Devastated the G1 Pacific Classic, a field that was a G1 in name only; hard to find anyone to dispute his brilliance, but the question remains - can he reproduce that brilliance against the cream of the crop?
DISTAFF
1 - Nitrogen (last week: 1)
• Ran arguably the best race of her career in defeat in the Whitney; outside chance she takes on boys again but strictly the horse to beat if she tackles the females in the Distaff
2 - Counting Stars (last week: 2)
• Defeated as the heavy chalk in the G1 Alabama; clearly not her best but not going to be overly reactionary…she’s still one of the favorites in this division when firing on all cylinders
3 - Always a Runner (last week: 3)
• The Kentucky Oaks winner is going to run in the Cotillion at Parx on Saturday; may be of comparable ability to Counting Stars but down in the head-to-head battles
4 - Fully Subscribed (last week: 4)
• Secured her first career G1 in the Personal Ensign, earning a 106 Beyer in the process; she’s failed before when tested against the best but has never regressed at any point in her career on the Beyer scale…may be peaking at the right time
SPRINT
1 - Englishman (last week: 1)
• The clear leader of the division after another devastating performance at Saratoga in the Allen Jerkens on Travers Day; Beyers of 115 and 117 as a 3YO entering the BC put him in rarified air for Cherie DeVaux
2 - T O Elvis (last week: 2)
• Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form - but may not need to find much
3 - Deep Flame (last week: 4)
• If not for the boss this would be a G1 winner entering the BC Sprint with a 110 Beyer in his back pocket…unfortunately that 110 was only good enough to get him beat by nearly four-lengths; getting better and better as part of one of the best 3YO sprint crops we’ve seen in years
4 - Book’em Danno (last week: 3)
• Unwilling to completely remove him just yet, but the tone from the connections would lead one to believe his Breeders’ Cup status is in question
FM SPRINT | MATT'S VIDEO SPOTLIGHT
1 - Kilwin (last week: 1)
• Perhaps being a bit stubborn keeping her #1…didn’t think her second in the Ballerina was a bad effort, just ran into a horse for course and found herself way too far back early despite the hot pace; absolutely needs a step forward but hopefully that is still to come at Keeneland
2 - Explora (last week: 2)
• Filly had been screaming for a turn back all spring but stayed the Oaks course; since the turn back has looked like a monster…figs still light compared to the older fillies and mares but on the right path
3 - Ways and Means (last week: 3)
• Disrespectful to have her this far down after a blowout win in a G1 at Saratoga? Maybe…still think she’s a different animal at the Spa v. Other venues; likely goes as the favorite for the FM Sprint in October off the 104 Beyer in the Ballerina
4 - Mashallah (last week: 4)
• Another blowout victory, this time in the G3 Prioress; figs aren’t exactly improving but hard to argue with what she’s done when you watch her races…may end up being the “now” horse
TURF
1 - Tiffany (last week: unranked)
• Devastating victory in the KYD Turf Cup in her U.S. debut; 107 Beyer earned in that race has been the benchmark for BC Turf success over the past decade - a likely win candidate at Keeneland
2 - Ethical Diamond (last week: 4)
• Credible second behind the filly on top in the KYD Turf Cup; connections seem very pleased with the run as a means to an end heading to Keeneland - a legit threat to repeat in the BC Turf
3 - Calandagan (last week: 2)
• Bit of a leap with any of the Euros regarding who is / isn’t coming over; maybe not visiting the winner’s circle as much as he was in 2025 but still capable of firing elite-level shots at 12F
4 - Burnham Square (last week: 1)
• Can’t rate him any higher after the disaster at KYD, but the intense heat that day may have been the excuse; if you still believe in him, you’ll wind up with a better price come BC Saturday
MILE
1 - Blue Bolt (last week: 1)
• Never a loser while taking another G1 in the Matron at Leopardstown last week, which was a WAYI for the BC FM Turf; not sure why you’d consider stretching her with as good as she’s been at the mile distance…would be a handful if Andrew Balding decided to ship her here
2 - Erdenali (last week: unranked)
• Set a Longchamp course record winning the G1 Prix du Moulin, humbling previous #1 rated Gstaad in the process; connections have stated the G1 Coolmore Mile at KEE would be next en route to the BC Mile
3 - Notable Speech (last week: 3)
• Another G1 victory to his resume in the Woodbine Mile last Saturday, running down Deterministic - who had everything his way; a major threat to repeat in the BC Mile, even if his WO Mile “only” earned a 101 Beyer
4 - Deterministic (last week: 4)
• Although no excuse when finishing second behind Notable Speech, don’t really feel as though he loses anything in defeat; still an underneath candidate for BC Mile…although do wonder if the connections explore the idea of trying to stretch and wire a field in the BC Turf?
FM TURF
1 - Thundering On (last week: 1)
• Back to her best winning the G3 Blandford at The Curragh; claim to fame prior was monster win in The Oaks, although form of that race has been spotty…Joseph O’Brien mentioned The Arc as a target, although this filly at 9.5F at Keeneland would be a monster
2 - Kentucky Belle (last week: unranked)
• The immediate target for the connections is the QEII at Keeneland; if she runs as well there as she did at Kentucky Downs on closing day it would be very difficult not to consider the BC FM Turf, even on a relatively quick turnaround
3 - Diamond Necklace (last week: 2)
• Defeated for the first time in her career, finishing behind Aventure in a G1 at Deauville; soft ground may not have been to her liking - willing to give a mulligan
4 - Stellify (last week: 4)
• An all or nothing type at this point in her career…when she’s part of the early running, she’s very good; decimated a field in the Ladies Marathon at KYD, a course which she’s 3-for-3 over
TURF SPRINT
1 - Cy Fair (last week: 1)
• Nothing to be gleaned from her off the board effort at KYD; buried on the rail for duration of the run…draw a line through the race - her best is still elite
2 - Bacio (last week: unranked)
• Devastating winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York for Wesley Ward over a highly-accomplished group; no fault with anyone saying he’s clearly tops, just still believe in the filly at #1’s ability
3 - Shisospicy (last week: 4)
• Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’s
4 - Possiblemente (last week: unranked)
• Put himself squarely in the mix with a strong victory in KYD Turf Sprint; versatile type in raging form for Joe Sharp
DIRT MILE
1 - Knightsbridge (last week: 1)
• Hard to imagine the connections not heading to the Classic despite having both he and Sovereignty but will remain a part of this group for the time being
2 - Napoleon Solo (last week: 2)
• Loses nothing in defeat finishing a gallant second in the Travers; coming up short in each of the past two would lead me to point to the Dirt Mile, but Classic remains an option for the connections
3 - Bishops Bay (last week: 3)
• Solid older veteran who probably isn’t a true G1 caliber runner, but depending on who shows up here…this may not be a race of true G1 caliber
4 - Chunk of Gold (last week: 4)
• Gave Bishops Bay all he could handle in the Iselin last weekend @ MON - perhaps a rising 4YO who could steal this at a decent number; owns a win over the course last fall by more than 8L
JUVENILE
1 - Coach Pope
• One of three to exit the “key” 2YO race of the summer at Saratoga on August 8; never out of first gear when breaking maiden at CD by more than 12L for McPeek…always take note of horses who do things their connections don’t necessarily prioritize - in this case, McPeek runners usually improve with experience
2 - U.S.S Valor
• Could copy / paste the notes for Pope here for Valor being trained by Shug McGaughey; 105 Beyer earned in maiden win at Saratoga towers over the competition…horse should improve with added ground, too
3 - Gaudreau
• The winner of the key race from Saratoga on August 8 defeating the top two; big acts to follow given what the other two have done recently but the Louisiana-bred deserves to be part of this triumvirate
4 - Salahudin
• Could have been any one of four or five to fill this fourth slot; almost the antithesis of a typical Baffert 2YO - sluggish out of the gate, settles before finding stride and finishing while still showing greenness; may be more of a 3YO prospect but continues to improve…as good a 2YO male crop as we’ve seen in a while
JUVENILE FILLIES
1 - Miss Monica
• Paired up 87 Beyers winning G1 DMR Debutante for Baffert; geared down for final 100 yards and still galloped out with interest…think she’ll improve around two-turns, too
2 - Summer Starlet
• Done nothing wrong in two starts, including an open-length score in the G1 Spinaway that earned a 97 Beyer; wasn’t crazy about the gallop out and there’s a fair bit of speed / sprint on the bottom of her pedigree, but in the right hands with Asmussen and figures to continue to improve with age
3 - Libby Lloyd
• Only a maiden victory on debut to her name so far but Chad Brown has spoken very highly of her; crushed a modest field by 10 at Saratoga in mid-August…will get a better sense of where she stacks up in next start
4 - Manuka Honey
• Unbeaten in three starts including the Pocahontas at CD; far from the most visually appealing finish, getting final 1/4 in :26…but this is a very thin group of fillies
JUVENILE TURF
1 - How’s Al Today
• Ran twice at the Kentucky Downs meeting, including a stakes score which resulted in a 94 Beyer Speed Figure; division historically dominated by Euros but this one looks like he may be the goods
2 - Folsom Blues
• Wicked kick over the final furlong winning the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at The Curragh; Joseph O’Brien indicated the Dewhurst may be next but didn’t rule out the possibility of sending the colt to the United States
3 - Darkness Falls
• No surprise to see him shorten in the market to one of the favorites for next year’s Derby after authoritative victory in the Golden Fleece; Aidan O’Brien suggested a run in America wouldn’t be out of the question
4 - Al Hudaiba
• Better than the final margin in the G1 Summer would suggest given he took a right-hand turn down the stretch; Charlie Appleby / Godolphin have played this tune successfully in the past, would be no surprise to see them do it again
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
1 - Sun Goddess
• Must be special if Aidan O’Brien is referring to her as a “freak”; smashed in the Moyglare, and post race comments would suggest a run in the Cheveley Park followed by a try in the Breeders’ Cup could be on offer…also worth noting she thumped Folsom Blues at The Curragh in August
2 - Senorita Bonita
• Crushed G1 company in the Prix Morny in August; pedigree on top suggests sprint but damsire is a real stamina influence…would think a mile should be within her scope
3 - Vanta
• Plenty to like on tape watching her two wins to date, but stating the obvious - she’s jumping into the deep end of the pool going from the Del Mar 2YO turf fillies to international stars
4 - Quibbler
• Only a maiden victory to her name so far, but visually ticked many boxes winning on debut at Kentucky Downs for Riley Mott; blew doors off a field despite looking as though she had plenty of fitness still to gain, which will come with additional experience
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