The Breeders’ Cup is just a few weeks away, and most of the expected participants have completed their final prep races. Many year-end championships will be decided on October 30 and 31 at Keeneland Race Course, largely due to what takes place in these marquee events.
Below you’ll find my rankings for 13 of the Breeders Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order. Any changes made, whether they be additions / subtractions or new comments, are italicized.
(NOTE: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint will be omitted from the rankings. The division is constantly in flux and there are too many who will be cross-entered to make that list worthwhile.)
CLASSIC
1 - Forever Young (last week: 1)
• Some may have been underwhelmed by his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup…but what else did you want from him? A 105 Beyer going 10F off a six-month layoff would seem to be a great jumping off point for a Classic defense.
2 - Magnitude (last week: 2)
• If you forgive his Saratoga form he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney
3 - Sovereignty (last week: 3)
• Maybe foolish to move him down a peg, but his unknown status due to the foot abscess has to be a concern; not sure he can afford any sort of hiccups if he’s to make the Breeders’ Cup
4 - Knightsbridge (last week: 4)
• Devastated the G1 Pacific Classic, a field that was a G1 in name only; hard to find anyone to dispute his brilliance, but the question remains - can he reproduce that brilliance against the cream of the crop?
DISTAFF
1 - Nitrogen (last week: 1)
• May not have been visually exceptional but plenty fast enough winning the Beldame; strictly the horse to beat in the Distaff
2 - Fully Subscribed (last week: 3)
• Secured her first career G1 in the Personal Ensign and followed it up with a decisive win in the G1 Spinster…peaking at the right time and may have what it takes to defeat Nitrogen in the Distaff
3 - Splendora (last week: 4)
• The wide margins of victory around two turns would lead you to believe she may well fit the Distaff configuration; have always wondered if she’s better around one turn, though, so maybe a defense of the FM Sprint is the better path? To be determined…
4 - Regaled (last week: unranked)
• Probably a notch below the best in the division but finished third in the Distaff last year and enters this year off another blowout win in the Delaware Handicap; maybe underneath
SPRINT
1 - Englishman (last week: 1)
• Missed a scheduled work over the weekend; connections seem optimistic it’s a minor issue and he should get back on the work tab soon…clearly the best of this bunch, but time is of the essence now
2 - T O Elvis (last week: 2)
• Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form - but may not need to find much
3 - Built (last week: 3)
• Always seemed like a one turn horse and has shown that to be the case in 2026; not much to knock about him given his recent form other than the obvious - his figs are miles behind those of Englishman
4 - Liam Smith (last week: 4)
• Not often does a $50k claimer immediately become a Breeders’ Cup contender, but here we are…back-to-back 107 Beyers make him too fast to ignore - especially given his early pace; seems unlikely he can run with Englishman, but could be worst case scenario for the heavy chalk in terms of race shape
FM SPRINT
1 - Kilwin (last week: 1)
• Perhaps being a bit stubborn keeping her #1…didn’t think her second in the Ballerina was a bad effort, just ran into a horse for course and found herself way too far back early despite the hot pace; absolutely needs a step forward but hopefully that is still to come at Keeneland
2 - Ways and Means (last week: 2)
• Disrespectful to have her this far down after a blowout win in a G1 at Saratoga? Maybe…still think she’s a different animal at the Spa v. Other venues; likely goes as the favorite for the FM Sprint off the 104 Beyer in the Ballerina
3 - Mashallah (last week: 3)
• Another blowout victory, this time in the G3 Prioress; figs aren’t exactly improving but hard to argue with what she’s done when you watch her races…may end up being the “now” horse
4 - Explora (last week: 4)
• Came up just short as part of a three-horse photo in the Dogwood at CD; the figs aren’t quite there for her to be considered a top contender - but that can be said for most in this division aside from Ways and Means
TURF
1 - Tiffany (last week: 1)
• Devastating victory in the KYD Turf Cup in her U.S. debut; 107 Beyer earned in that race has been the benchmark for BC Turf success over the past decade - a likely win candidate at Keeneland
2 - Ombudsman (last week: 2)
• Serious horse and a real possibility to run here if the weather goes sideways for Champions Day at Ascot according to John Gosden via Nick Luck Daily…Gosden has kept him at 10F for majority of career in Europe but the 12F in the United States should be well within his scope; the likely favorite for the Turf assuming he comes for the party
3 - Diamond Necklace (last week: unranked)
• Gave a good account of herself in the Arc when stepping up in trip; with the distance a non-issue, a trip to the BC Turf has been mentioned by Aidan O’Brien for the 3YO filly
4 - Ethical Diamond (last week: 3)
• Credible second behind the filly on top in the KYD Turf Cup; connections seem very pleased with the run as a means to an end heading to Keeneland - a legit threat to repeat in the BC Turf
MILE
1 - Blue Bolt (last week: 1)
• Another race, another G1 victory for the fantastic filly - this one at Newmarket in the Sun Chariot; already qualified for the FM Turf and it sounds like a run at Keeneland is in the cards…the question is: the FM Turf or the Mile against the males?
2 - Notable Speech (last week: 3)
• Another G1 victory to his resume in the Woodbine Mile, running down Deterministic - who had everything his way; a major threat to repeat in the BC Mile, even if his WO Mile “only” earned a 101 Beyer
3 - Lake Forest (last week: unranked)
• Second in the Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland behind Rhetorical but had a no-win trip given the lack of pace / lack of running room; should get a more favorable setup in the BC Mile for trainer William Haggas
4 - Rhetorical (last week: unranked)
• Winner of the Coolmore Turf Mile for the second consecutive year; took advantage of glacial pace but kicked home like a good thing…proven over the Keeneland turf and versatile running style should give him a good chance
FM TURF
1 - Precise (last week: unranked)
• Big effort when second in the Prix de l’Opera at 10F at Longchamp behind Miss Scott; winner doesn’t sound likely to come, so runner-up on the cutback to 9.5F would be a handful for Aidan O’Brien
2 - Thundering On (last week: 1)
• Looked for a moment as though she’d fire a big shot in the Arc before offering little late; speculation that she doesn’t appreciate fast ground, which makes BC participation questionable…still love the idea of her cutting back to 9.5F
3 - Stellify (last week: 4)
• An all or nothing type at this point in her career…when she’s part of the early running, she’s very good; decimated a field in the Ladies Marathon at KYD, a course which she’s 3-for-3 over
4 - Kathynmarissa (last week: unranked)
• Added another graded stakes victory to the resume in the Flower Bowl at 10F; 9.5F distance of this race hits her right between the eyes and trainer Chad Brown has had success in this event on numerous occasions…too sharp to ignore
TURF SPRINT
1 - Cy Fair (last week: 1)
• Nothing to be gleaned from her off the board effort at KYD; buried on the rail for duration of the run…draw a line through the race - her best is still elite
2 - Bacio (last week: 2)
• Devastating winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York for Wesley Ward over a highly-accomplished group; no fault with anyone saying he’s clearly tops, just still believe in the filly at #1’s ability
3 - Joe Shiesty (last week: unranked)
• Razor-sharp sprinter is also as gutsy as they come, as seen by his win in the Woodford at Keeneland; other pace will be a concern for him since he’s one-way speed, but he loves a fight
4 - Shisospicy (last week: 3)
• Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’s
DIRT MILE
1 - Knightsbridge (last week: 1)
• Sounds as though it’s as simple as: if Sovereignty runs in the Classic, Knightsbridge to the Dirt Mile…no Sovereignty in the Classic - Knightsbridge to the Classic
2 - Napoleon Solo (last week: 2)
• Loses nothing in defeat finishing a gallant second in the Travers; Classic remains an option for the connections, especially after flashy drill at Belmont Park
3 - The Puma (last week: 3)
• Connections probably wanting to give the Classic a go but not sure his best is good enough to run with the big boys just yet; blinkers certainly did the trick and the middle move he unleashed would play wonderfully in a truly run mile at Keeneland
4 - Further Ado (last week: 4)
• Kicked on well at the end of the PA Derby but couldn’t run down The Puma; the record at Keeneland sticks out like a sore thumb - in a good way; can’t imagine the connections are in a rush to try the Classic with him but another who would fit wonderfully in the Dirt Mile
JUVENILE | MATT'S VIDEO ANALYSIS
1 - Hughes (last week: unranked)
• Hard to knock a horse who is 4-for-4 with winning margins of 6L, 7+L, 4+L, and 6L at distances of 5F, 6F, 7F, and 8.5F; took a meaningful step forward on the fig scale and establishes himself as the favorite for this race with the absence of U.S.S. Valor
2 - Salahudin (last week: 4)
• Almost the antithesis of a typical Baffert 2YO - sluggish out of the gate, settles before finding stride and finishing while still showing greenness; may be more of a 3YO prospect but continues to improve…as good a 2YO male crop as we’ve seen in a while
3 - American History (last week: unranked)
• Took advantage of pace setup to win Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland; not the most visually impressive but seems like he’s learning on the job…needs a meaningful step forward to get the job done in the Breeders’ Cup (or another obscene pace setup)
4 - Coach Pope (last week: 1)
• Caught up in a wicked pace in the Breeders’ Futurity; finished willingly, albeit slowly, at the end of two-turn debut…dynamics almost certainly did him in but he’s likely to catch another swift pace in the Breeders’ Cup
JUVENILE FILLIES
1 - Emphatic (last week: unranked)
• Exceptional in G1 Alcibiades victory at Keeneland for Brendan Walsh; distance is her friend and she’s already defeated a serious filly in Summer Starlet…the one to beat on BC Friday
2 - Summer Starlet (last week: 2)
• Ran giant in Alcibiades defeat; nothing to knock other than she’s going to run into the Alcibiades winner again in the BC Juvenile Fillies
3 - Domain Expansion (last week: unranked)
• Visually awesome winning the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita in dirt debut for Leonard Powell; may not have beaten the best company but could not have looked more impressive…should be a square price in the BC given the other outfits involved in this race, too
4 - Miss Monica (last week: 1)
• Paired up 87 Beyers winning G1 DMR Debutante for Baffert; geared down for final 100 yards and still galloped out with interest…think she’ll improve around two-turns, too
JUVENILE TURF
1 - How’s Al Today (last week: 1)
• Ran twice at the Kentucky Downs meeting, including a stakes score which resulted in a 94 Beyer Speed Figure; division historically dominated by Euros but this one looks like he may be the goods…form flattered when 3rd place finisher in KYD Juvenile Mile (who was 5+L behind Al) came back to win Bourbon at Keeneland
2 - Folsom Blues (last week: 2)
• Beaten at odds-on in Jean-Luc Lagard�re at Longchamp over 7F; didn’t seem to be shortening at the end…simply beaten by a better runner on the day - would be an obvious threat in the BC Juvenile Turf should he come
3 - Darkness Falls (last week: 3)
• No surprise to see him shorten in the market to one of the favorites for next year’s Derby after authoritative victory in the Golden Fleece; Aidan O’Brien suggested a run in America wouldn’t be out of the question
4 - Al Hudaiba (last week: 4)
• Better than the final margin in the G1 Summer would suggest given he took a right-hand turn down the stretch; Charlie Appleby / Godolphin have played this tune successfully in the past, would be no surprise to see them do it again
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
1 - Sun Goddess (last week: 1)
• Must be special if Aidan O’Brien is referring to her as a “freak”; smashed in the Moyglare, and post race comments would suggest a run in the Cheveley Park followed by a try in the Breeders’ Cup could be on offer…also worth noting she thumped Folsom Blues at The Curragh in August
2 - Domestic Agenda (last week: unranked)
• Devastating win in the Miss Grillo at Belmont Park; wide trip in the clear and lengthened down the lane, all while swapping leads and showing a bit of greenness…Chad Brown has won this race six times
3 - Senorita Bonita (last week: 2)
• Crushed G1 company in the Prix Morny in August; pedigree on top suggests sprint but damsire is a real stamina influence…would think a mile should be within her scope
4 - Vanta (last week: 3)
• Another impressive win, this time in the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita; as mentioned before - the waters get considerably deeper taking on international competition + Chad’s filly
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