Al Cimaglia: Little Brown Jug Late Pick 4 Analysis | Thursday, September 22, 2022

Today, all eyes will be on the Delaware County Fair the home of the Little Brown Jug. The first post is 10:30 EST with the Jug Final coming in Race 19. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 15. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and the Jug Eliminations are the 1st and 2nd legs.

Xpressbet account holders will be eligible for 10X's Reward Points for all wagers on today's Delaware County card.

Comments and selections below for the Late Pick 4 are based on a fast track.

Race 15

2-Bythemissal (8/5)-This Ohio bred is simply a beast and is the clear cut one to beat. The chances of not hitting the wire 1st depends on how cautiously he is handled with another heat coming. But if the connections want to get the top, probably everyone will fall in line.  
3-Market Based (7/2)-Taking a swing for some value with a fast horse who hasn't had the same success as last year. Comes in off a sizzling 148.4 qualifier on Lasix at Lexington. Could be primed to be sent to the top off the gate. Might land in the pocket or get on the point and try to steal a quarter. Andrew McCarthy knows how to play that game.

Race 16

3-Fourever Boy (9/5)-Dunn grabbed the lines 4 starts back and the Tim Twaddle trainee has done much better since getting a new pilot. Winner of 2 straight is in sharp form and there isn't anything to criticize except the short price. Could win coming off cover and Dunn should have him forwardly placed.
6-Pleaseletmeknow (3-1)-An 8-time winner in 12 starts this year has shown strong efforts on half-mile ovals. My thinking is the NY bred could leave and get on the point. That's the favored plan for success but could also come off cover and qualify. But to win this race, getting on the engine without burning much gas is a recipe for success.

Race 17

4-When Dovescry (4-1)-Was looking for a single in this sequence and this wasn't a difficult choice. Came a solid 3rd and raced conservatively after suffering a rare break in stride in the previous outing. Stayed right with Bella Bellini going down the lane and that gal was the 1/5 chalk. Tetrick was on the winner and he stole the race with a 29.3 opening panel. This mare might be better on a smaller oval than Atlanta (1) and if 100% she can also beat the program chalk Refined (3), if Miller provides a good steer.

Race 18

3-Do I Like Bobbi (3-1)-Gets a post edge on a few others who could be in the hunt. Should be fresh, has only raced 6 times this year, hasn't missed the board and has taken 3 pictures. Has enough gate speed to land in a good seat and should be in the mix at the wire.
5-Prancing Queen (7-1)-Comes off 2 straight wins and could be peaking at the right time. Has a chance at a price and this post draw shouldn't hurt.
7-Coastal (5-1)-Needs to be used at the program price and is versatile. Gingras may leave for the top and with a quick start could land in the pocket or on the engine. This Burke pupil has won 5 of the last 6 but this will be the 1st time for Gingras to take a seat.

0.50 Late Pick 4

Total Bet=$6

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