1/ST INDEX AI Picks for Breeders' Cup Saturday

The Breeders’ Cup annually hosts the best Thoroughbreds across all divisions of racing, and the most interesting two days of handicapping for horseplayers. Whether you’re a regular to betting the Breeders’ Cup or dropping by for the elite Friday and Saturday cards at Keeneland, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7

RACE 1 (10:15AM ET) // PERRYVILLE S. // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#1 // NASHVILLE (4/5) // 31% WIN
#4 // BANGO (5/1) // 21% WIN
#5 // WILD WES (15/1) // 21% WIN
#2 // LITTLE MENACE (6/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: Nashville will be the heaviest favorite on the entire program and extremely difficult to defeat. The 10-point spread is surprisingly close to the co-second choices.

RACE 2 (10:45AM ET) // LAFAYETTE S. // 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#10 // MIND CONTROL (8/1) // 29% WIN
#12 // PHAT MAN (6/1) // 13% WIN
#1 // ENGAGE (4/1) // 12% WIN
#11 // TRUE TIMBER (6/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: Value players will be excited to get the 8-1 morning line on Mind Control, considering his 16-point spread in this race to second choice Phat Man is the third-largest on the Saturday card. Mind Control is a Grade 1 winner who appears to have found some class relief.

RACE 3 (11:20AM ET) // FORT SPRINGS S. // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#5 // MISS T TOO (5/1) // 33% WIN
#6 // FAIR MAIDEN (8/1) // 15% WIN
#10 // MOTIVATED SELLER (4/1) // 12% WIN
#1 // AIN’T NO ELMERS (10/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: Miss T Too dominates on the 1/ST INDEX with Saturday’s highest win rate (33%) on the card, and second-largest spread from first to second behind the BC Distaff. The algorithm does not show any love for morning line favorite Merneith.

RACE 4 (12:02PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT (G1) // 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#7 // SERENGETI EMPRESS (3/1) // 22% WIN
#3 // COME DANCING (8/1) // 20% WIN
#1 // SPEECH (6/1) // 14% WIN
#9 // BELL’S THE ONE (6/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: Despite Gamine’s favoritism in the morning line, the 1/ST INDEX is dismissive of that 3-year-old’s chances and focuses on the older fillies/mares. Serengeti Empress and Come Dancing should provide a good early/late combination in a race that’s tied for the closest spread (2 points) among the Saturday championship races.

RACE 5 (12:39PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT (G1) // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

#3 // IMPRIMIS (4/1) // 25% WIN
#8 // OLEKSANDRA (AUS) (12/1) // 15% WIN
#12 // GOT STORMY (7/2) // 11% WIN
#7 // LEINSTER (4/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: In what most consider a wide-open race, the 1/ST INDEX solidly backs Imprimis with a 25% chance and 10-point spread. All of these top-4 selections have had success at Keeneland and appear trustworthy over the course.

RACE 6 (1:18PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE (G1) // 1 MILE (DIRT)

#10 // COMPLEXITY (2/1) // 23% WIN
#4 // WAR OF WILL (10/1) // 12% WIN
#11 // JESUS’ TEAM (30/1) // 12% WIN
#2 // SHARP SAMURAI (15/1) // 11% WIN

Notable: Morning line favorite Complexity is a solid, 11-point choice by the algorithm, over a clump of horses drawing similar attention. This could be one of those situations for multi-race bettors that’s either single or spread, if following the 1/ST INDD

RACE 7 (1:57PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF (G1) // 1 3/16 MILES (TURF)

#2 // SISTERCHARLIE (IRE) (6/1) // 21% WIN
#6 // RUSHING FALL (5/2) // 17% WIN
#1 // STARSHIP JUBILEE (10/1) // 10% WIN
#5 // MY SISTER NAT (FR) (12/1) // 9% WIN

Notable: Expect an impact from the Europeans as well, who are underappreciated by the algorithm. But the 1/ST INDEX evaluation of the North American talent leans to the veteran Sistercharlie and her Chad Brown stablemate Rushing Fall. The latter is a 5-time major stakes winner at Keeneland.

RACE 8 (2:36PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT (G1) // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#7 // WHITMORE (15/1) // 24% WIN
#10 // YAUPON (7/2) // 18%
#2 // C Z ROCKET (7/2) // 9% WIN
#11 // DIAMOND OOPS (8/1) // 9% WIN

Notable: The 1/ST INDEX was recalibrated to recognize the scratch of morning line favorite (and previous algorithm top choice) Vekoma. Longshot veteran Whitmore has been close in the Sprint before, but his 15-1 morning line and 24% win rate certainly tempt those hoping this might be his year.

RACE 9 (3:15PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP MILE (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)

#13 // FACTOR THIS (8/1) // 16% WIN
#8 // MARCH TO THE ARCH (15/1) // 11% WIN
#11 // IVAR (BRZ) (4/1) // 10% WIN
#12 // UNI (GB) (5/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: Four North Americans in the 14-horse Mile not surprisingly pace the 1/ST INDEX as European form can be a blindspot for the algorithm (lacking data points like pace, speed figures, etc). The news here among the 1/ST INDEX might be the lack of love for Ivar, who was made the 4-1 morning line favorite. He rates only a 10% chance even with the likely European imbalance.

RACE 10 (3:54PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF (G1) // 1 1/8 MILES (DIRT)

#5 // SWISS SKYDIVER (2/1) // 32% WIN
#10 // MONOMOY GIRL (8/5) // 13% WIN
#3 // DUNBAR BIRD (12/1) // 13% WIN
#8 // VALIANCE (12/1) // 11% WIN

Notable: In what was supposed to be a match race between 2018 Distaff winner Monomoy Girl and 2020 Preakness champ Swiss Skydiver, the 1/ST INDEX made its assessment blatantly for the latter. The 32% win rate for Swiss Skydiver is second-highest on the Saturday card, and largest in a BC championship race today. The 19-point spread to Monomoy Girl also is the day’s best.

RACE 11 (4:33PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP TURF (G1) // 1 1/2 MILES (TURF)

#1 // ARKLOW (5/1) // 22% WIN
#7 // UNITED (8/1) // 20% WIN
#9 // CHANNEL MAKER (5/1) // 11% WIN
#2 // MAGICAL (IRE) (5/2) // 10% WIN

Notable: Americans lead the top 3 Turf slots due to the algorithm’s lack of data to process for the Europeans. This is a race historically strong to the Euros, so keep an open mind as you process handicapping. Use factors related to distance and purse if crunching your own factors. As is, the Turf numbers are tied for the closest spread (2 points) among the Saturday championship races.

RACE 12 (5:18PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC (G1) // 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)

#10 // MAXIMUM SECURITY (7/2) // 27% WIN
#8 // IMPROBABLE (5/2) // 16% WIN
#2 // TIZ THE LAW (3/1) // 13% WIN
#6 // HIGHER POWER (20/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: It’s a pretty convincing 1/ST INDEX selection of Maximum Security in the Classic, putting 11 points between him and stablemate Improbable, the morning line favorite. Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law tops the 3-year-olds with Kentucky Derby champ Authentic in single digits and out of the superfecta projections.


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