1/ST INDEX AI Picks for Breeders' Cup Friday

The Breeders’ Cup annually hosts the best Thoroughbreds across all divisions of racing, and the most interesting two days of handicapping for horseplayers. Whether you’re a regular to betting the Breeders’ Cup or dropping by for the elite Friday and Saturday cards at Keeneland, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6

RACE 1 (11:30AM ET) // NYQUIST S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#9 // SAFFA’S DAY (7/2) // 30% WIN
#8 // AWESOME GERRY (6/1) // 17% WIN
#1 // HIGHLY MOTIVATED (7/2) // 13% WIN
#4 // UPSTRIKER (6/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: Impressive 2020 Keeneland Fall Meet debut winner Saffa’s Day matches the second-largest win rate (30%) on the Friday card. The 1/ST INDEX stands against 5-2 morning line favorite Quick Tempo.

RACE 2 (12:05PM ET) // SONGBIRD S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#14 // CALIFORNIA LILY (9/2) // 28% WIN
#8 // TAYLOR’S TOURIST (15/1) // 19% WIN
#7 // NOVEL SQUALL (12/1) // 10% WIN
#9 // THE GRASS IS BLUE (4/1) // 7% WIN

Notable: Lukewarm morning line favorite The Grass Is Blue is 4-1, showing this to be a potentially wide-open race. But the 1/ST INDEX is bullish on its top pair, noticing 9-point spreads between the first and second choices, and another 9 to the third choice.

RACE 3 (12:40PM ET) // BRYAN STATION S. // 1 1/8 MILES (TURF)

#7 // SPANISH KINGDOM (15/1) // 18% WIN
#6 // FANCY LIQUOR (4/1) // 16% WIN
#1 // ENFORCEABLE (10/1) // 9% WIN
#14 // BYE BYE MELVIN (8/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: Another 4-1 morning line favorite, this time the 1/ST INDEX puts Fancy Liquor squarely into the win discussion. Spanish Kingdom’s 15-1 morning line price is co-second highest today among top choices following his victory on the Keeneland turf in allowance company.

RACE 4 (1:15PM ET) // MCCONNELL SPRINGS S. // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#6 // UNIQUE FACTOR (6/1) // 30% WIN
#2 // AMY’S CHALLENGE (4/1) // 19% WIN
#4 // INTO CHOCOLATE (12/1) // 19% WIN
#1 // BYE BYE J (7/2) // 7% WIN

Notable: Unique Factor drops in class after facing graded-stakes company in 3 of her last 4 starts for top national sprint trainer Peter Miller. Her 30% win rate matches the second-highest on today’s card.

RACE 5 (1:50PM ET) // THOROUGHBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE S. // 1 5/8 MILES (DIRT)

#7 // SIGNALMAN (12/1) // 32% WIN
#5 // TENFOLD (5/1) // 13% WIN
#9 // MIRINAQUE (ARG) (50/1) // 7% WIN
#2 // FARMINGTON ROAD (15/1) // 7% WIN

Notable: Keeneland specialist Signalman owns the day’s highest 1/ST INDEX win rate at 32% and the biggest spread at 19 points to the second choice. At 12-1 in the morning line, it’s easy to identify this as the day’s best bet, according to the 1/ST INDEX.

RACE 6 (2:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (G2) // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

#12 // DIRTY DANGLE (20/1) // 25% WIN
#14 // GOLDEN PAL (8/5) // 16% WIN
#10 // BODENHEIMER (8/1) // 11% WIN
#13 // SECOND OF JULY (8/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: The first of 5 consecutive Breeders’ Cup Championship race kicks off the late pick five. Dirty Dangle is the biggest longshot tabbed on top today by the 1/ST INDEX at 20-1. He changes barns to Mark Casse after a private sale, joining one of Keeneland’s most successful 2-year-old and turf trainers.

RACE 7 (3:10PM ET) // BREEDES’ CUP JUVENILE TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)

#11 // GRETZKY THE GREAT (8/1) // 15% WIN
#6 // MUTASAABEQ (5/1) // 11% WIN
#8 // OUTADORE (8/1) // 9% WIN
#15 // BARRISTER TOM (AE) (30/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: The 1/ST INDEX tabs the same jockey-trainer-owner with Gretzky the Great as Dirty Dangle in the preceding Breeders’ Cup championship event. This one’s a tighter call at 15%, matching the smallest rate by a 1/ST INDEX top choice in today’s 5 BC races.

RACE 8 (3:50PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)

#1 // SIMPLY RAVISHING (5/2) // 30% WIN
#3 // DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5/2) // 24% WIN
#7 // PRINCESS NOOR (9/5) // 13% WIN
#6 // CRAZY BEAUTIFUL (20/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: The highest win-rate among the 5 Breeders’ Cup championship races Friday belongs to Simply Ravishing at 30%. The local Alcibiades winner and Frizette winner Dayoutoftheoffice strongly separate themselves from what looks to be a competitive group on paper.

RACE 9 (4:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)

#3 // ALDA (12/1) // 15% WIN
#11 // ROYAL APPROVAL (10/1) // 11% WIN
#12 // SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR (15/1) // 9% WIN
#4 // PLUM ALI (4/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: A surprising dismissal of unbeaten morning line favorite Aunt Pearl helps to put the 1/ST INDEX on a series of long prices. Alda continues a theme of Woodbine-based runners today in BC races that are well-supported by the algorithms. We’ll tab how that plays out in prior races.

RACE 10 (5:15PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)

#5 // ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4/1) // 16% WIN
#8 // CLASSIER (12/1) // 12% WIN
#7 // JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7/5) // 10% WIN
#11 // NEXT (15/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: Unbeaten morning line favorite Jackie’s Warrior gets snubbed by the algorithm in his first attempt around 2 turns. If he’s vulnerable, local stakes winner Essential Quality becomes the most logical next choice. Lightly raced Classier as the second choice is an interesting evaluation at double-digit odds.


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