This weekend’s stakes action is a whirlwind of action and Xpressbet and 1/ST BET your perfect companion on an international betting journey. The action kicks off Saturday morning in the desert of Dubai with the $12M World Cup before whipping back to North America for Triple Crown prep races in Louisiana (Louisiana Derby) and Kentucky (Jeff Ruby Steaks).
Wake up fresh on Sunday with some major cards waiting for you, including a major stakes day at Tampa Bay Downs, a mandatory payout at Golden Gate and a loaded stakes docket at Sunland Park, headlined by the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. The ‘Derby’ is where my focus takes me. Be sure to follow the Xpressbet and 1/ST BET News sections and social media accounts to see picks and analysis for all the top races this weekend.
I’m a sucker for anything labeled ‘All-Stakes,’ so obviously Sunland’s big All-Stakes Pick 5 (Races 6 – 10) jumped off the page. Here’s my attempt to put together a winning ticket.
Race 6 (4:43PM ET) // $250K New Mexico Breeders’ Derby // 1 1/16 Miles
State-bred three-year-olds take center stage for a massive $250,000 purse and, as you would expect, a huge field has signed on. As will be a running theme throughout this analysis, conversation must start with the vaunted Todd Fincher barn at Sunland. He leads conditioners at the meet in virtually every category and the top jockeys are all in his employ. He sends out five in here and the barn’s top choice is obviously #2 THRUTHESTORM (7/2). He has won two straight stakes at Sunland and drew inside, which should help him save ground this time. He ran down stablemate #12 STILL IN THE TRAP (4/1) that day and the tables have turned at the post draw, with the latter now marooned outside. Look for a similar dynamic at play this time.
Must Use: #2 Thruthestorm (7/2)
Must Consider: #1 Antonios Mark (5/1), #11 Sambas Mark (6/1), #12 Still in the Trap (4/1)
Race 7 (5:13PM ET) // $100K Bill Thomas Memorial // 6 1/2 Furlongs
#1 TRUTH SEEKER (2/1) has won three straight at Turf Paradise and 4-of-4 on the dirt since moving to the Rafael Barraza barn last year. He has never raced at Sunland but his form couldn’t be sharper and the only worry is that he likes to rally from waaaay out of it, which is always a bit dangerous. #5 DEAN’S LIST (9/5) is in from Texas for trainer Ray Ashford Jr. and should get the perfect trip. He’ll press the frontrunner(s) from a length or so behind and get a clear advantage over TRUTH SEEKER at the top of the lane. #2 BYE BYE BOBBY (8/1) is a familiar face off a runner-up effort in the Sunland Derby last year.
Must Use: #1 Truth Seeker (2/1), #5 Dean’s List (9/5)
Must Consider: #2 Bye Bye Bobby (8/1)
Race 8 (5:41PM ET) // $300K Sunland Park Oaks // 1 1/16 Miles
Brace for fireworks as the immovable object and unstoppable force collide as Bob Baffert’s confirmed frontrunner, #4 DOINITTHEHARDWAY (2/1) heads into town to face Todd Fincher’s local speedball, #1 FLYING CONNECTION (9/5). Both horses want to go to the lead, so something’s gotta give…right? I will be curious to see who makes the lead early, but I do give an edge to the Baffert charge, strictly based on having drawn outside her top rival. You’d rather be the hunter than the hunted in pace scenarios like this. Can someone shock them and pick up the pieces from behind? #3 FOOLISH DELIGHT (6/1) and #5 UNA PALABRA (5/1) would be the likeliest two. Each comes in off a victory and should be moving late in the event that the speed folds.
Must Use: #4 Doinitthehardway (2/1)
Must Consider: #1 Flying Connection (9/5), #5 Una Palabra (5/1)
Race 9 (6:14PM ET) // $100K Harry Henson Handicap // 1 Mile
The Baffert attack continues (and did we mention he brings all-world jockey Flavien Prat to ride?) with #7 EDA (6/5) in the $100K Harry Henson. Se haven’t seen EDA at the races in over a year, but she is far and away the class of this bunch. Her resume includes four stakes wins, including the G1 Starlet and G3 Santa Ysabel. If she runs her top effort, it’s hard to envision an upset. But then you start to wonder. A quality filly like this. Why bring her back at Sunland? And the truth of it is…probably lack of options. Between the G1 Beholder Mile (March 11) and the G1 Santa Maria (April 29), there isn’t anything at Santa Anita that would suit her. And shipping her to the G1 Apple Blossom on April 15 could work – except you run into buzzsaws like Clairiere and Secret Oath there. Nope, this is the right spot and the right filly.
Must Use: #7 Eda (6/5)
Must Consider: -
Race 10 (6:45PM ET) // G3 $600K Sunland Derby // 1 1/8 Miles
Additional Content -> Meet the Sunland Derby Contenders
#6 HARD TO FIGURE (2/1) isn’t Kentucky Derby bound, but he is your Sunland Derby morning line favorite and merits the respect of any horse whose connections names include Baffert, Prat and Pegram. He missed by just a neck in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on February 4. #4 HENRY Q (3/1) responded to the barn change to Todd Fincher in a big when when he decimated the field in the Mine That Bird Derby last month by nearly 15-lengths. And you can’t ignore Steve Asmussen’s #1 HOW DID HE DO THAT (9/2). He should be salivating over the added distance and the prospect of a speed duel. Note: #3 FORT BRAGG reportedly will scratch in favor of a Florida Derby trip next Saturday.
Must Use: #1 How Did He Do that (9/2), #4 Henry Q (3/1), #6 Hard to Figure (2/1)
Must Consider: #2 Low Expectations (6/1)
My Ticket
Race 6: 2, 12
Race 7: 1, 2, 5
Race 8: 4, 5
Race 9: 7
Race 10: 1, 4, 6
Ticket Cost: $18 for 50-cents
.svg){kind=logo}
