The Road to the Derby heats up on Saturday when the first round of 100-point to the winner races begins in New Orleans and Northern Kentucky. The big day on the Triple Crown trail also means another couple of chances at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s Money-Back Special offer where you get up to $10 back on your win bet if your horse finishes second or third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Jeff Ruby (G3).
Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds Race 12
The pace should be honest in this year’s Louisiana Derby (G2) given the presence of #1 John Hancock, #4 Yinzer, #5 Caldera, and #8 Furio, who all likely to want to get aggressive rides out of the gate in this 1 3/16-mile journey for potential Kentucky Derby starters. Plus, #6 Built and #7 Vassimo both add blinkers for the first time, so they could be more prominent in the early stages than it may appear on paper. Hopefully, #10 Hypnus takes advantage. The son of Into Mischief came from off the pace over the off going at 16-1 to run down a field of well-meant 3YOs for high-profile barns in his first start before running into major traffic issues in the lane in the Rebel (G2) last month. The Kenny McPeek trainee still has a lot to prove, but has done nothing wrong thus far and should relish the likely race shape.
Play: #10 Hypnus (10-1 ML)
Jeff Ruby, Turfway Park, Race 12
#9 Poster is the deserving 3-1-morning line favorite in this 9-furlong affair over Turfway’s all-weather. The Godolphin homebred rattled off three straight wins going two-turns as a 2YO for trainer Eoin Harty before running a better than looks third to John Hancock and Owen Almighty in the Sam F. Davis. The Munnings colt had no business being within three lengths of the top two after being forced to make a four-wide middle move on the far turn. He has talent, but the concern is he has never raced over this surface. Sure, he has proven himself over two different dirt surfaces, as well as two separate turf courses, but it still is tough to swallow a relatively short price.
I will take a swing instead, especially with the Money Back Offer, with #2 Charlie’s to Blame. The son of Blame is a perfect 2 for 2 since stretching out to a route of ground for trainer Peter Eurton. The $400k EAS May 2024 purchase has won in front running fashion in his two turf scores dating back to early December, but I am hopeful he can sit just off the likely early pace of #8 Innovator. Jockey Juan Hernandez ships in from California for the mount. The price should be right.
Play: #2 Charlie’s to Blame (15-1 ML)
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In addition to the Derby qualifiers, there are a plethora of stake races on both undercards. I will dive into the New Orleans Classic, Fair Grounds Oaks, and Bourbonette Oaks in my Bayou Bluegrass 5 blog tomorrow. Here is a horse I like at each track in some of the other top tier action:
Muniz Memorial, Fair Grounds, Race 10
Trainer Chad Brown has won this two-turn turf race a record three times, including last year with a strong late run from I’m Very Busy. Brown holds a strong hand once again this year with 3-1-morning line favorite #6 Spirit of St Louis and 9-2-third choice #5 Redistricting. Spirit of St Louis has the much stronger resume, especially after his neck victory in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) when seen last, but Redistricting should offer better value. The Kingman gelding concluded his 4YO season out west with a huge late run to earn second in the Seabiscuit (G2) at Del Mar. He has a big turn of foot and gets the best rider in the game. Hopefully he is better out of the gate after some time off for the winter.
Play: #5 Redistricting (9-2 ML)
Kentucky Cup Classic, Turfway Park, Race 10
The favorites seem vulnerable in this 1 1/8-mile event for 4YOs and up where I like #2 Paros. The Cairo Prince gelding has been racing over the lawn in Florida for trainer Mike Maker, but gets back to a surface he was really good over in the Prairie Bayou in December. The Paradise Farm runner draws favorably along the inside, is 8 for 19 in his career, and should find himself in good spot early at a playable price.
Play: #2 Paros (8-1 ML)
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