If you are looking to get a head start on your Pegasus World Cup weekend, may I suggest the racing in Florence, Kentucky tonight?
Turfway Park has a solid ten-race card set to start at 5:55 PM eastern headlined by the $125,000 Likely Exchange S. The lone stake of the evening goes as Race 6. Here are a few horses I will be leaning on:
Race 3:
Oddsmaker Mike Battaglia understandably made #4 Cut Class the 3-1-morning line choice in this starter allowance after a dominant win against similar to end his 6YO season. The 11-time winner has hit the board in 8 of 10 over this racetrack and has the tactical speed to work out his own trip. The problem is he will be a far shorter price than he was last out. Plus, he draws inside, not outside the likely pacesetter #5 King of Kentucky like last out when he was able to work out a stress-free trip from his outside draw. This time things could be more challenging early for jockey Alberto Burgos.
If so, #6 Unsociable is the one who is likeliest to take advantage. The Florida-bred ran well in his first start over this surface last out finishing a length behind 11-time winner Major Wager. He should improve after getting invaluable experience over this unique surface last month. Jockey Vincent Cheminaud does not sport a great record at Turfway, but is very good at judging pace and relaxing horses in the early going. Hopefully, he proves it here.
Pick- #6 Unsociable (6-1 ML)
Race 5:
The complexion of this first-level allowance for 3YOS changed this morning with the scratch of 6-5-morning line choice #9 Touchy amongst others. #5 California Burrito will now probably end up going a significant favorite. The Army Mule colt ran a couple of competitive races over the dirt at Churchill Downs before encountering traffic at the top of the stretch in his fourth-place effort on December 28 over this same surface and distance. California Burrito was definitely cost at least a position, but was never threatening the winner. He will need a favorable setup under the same rider tonight where I am unwilling to swallow the chalk.
I prefer #1 Papiamento. The $250k OBS March 2024 purchase has not lived up to expectations thus far for trainer Whit Beckman, but could be poised to break through tonight. Beckman takes the blinkers off this colt, who did not have much of an excuse as the 4-5-favorite in his first effort over this surface on December 6. The removal of the shades should lead to a move forward if not two though based on Beckman’s success with this equipment change with 3YOs. He is an eye-popping 5 for his last 8 when taking the blinkers off of sophomores. This suggests to me these are horses Beckman has taught to relax on their own as they grow older and become more mature. Hopefully this colt is ready for a career best tonight with Gerardo Corrales back to ride.
Pick: #1 Papiamento (6-1 ML)
Race 6: Likely Exchange Stakes
The feature looks like a two-filly race between 5-2-morning line favorite #3 Earhart and 3-1-second choice #7 Everland (pictured). Earhart certainly has greater upside at this point shipping to the States after a pair of dominant wins over the all-weather at Woodbine. The two courses do not necessarily play the same, which is a slight concern, as is her trying two-turns for the first time, but her talent is obvious. If she sets a moderate early tempo she will probably win, but I expect her to take some heat early on.
This should set things up for Everland. The Eric Foster trainee has held her own on other surfaces against high-level competition, but is at her best at Turfway Park. She finished a solid second in the Synthetic Championships to lone speed winner Dana’s Beauty and hopefully gets a much more favorable setup tonight in her second try off the layoff.
#8 Hurry Up Hannah has a big shot to pick up some pieces at a solid price if the pace is contentious. I will probably hook the two up in an exacta.
Pick: #7 Everland (3-1 ML)
Best of luck to kick off a big weekend at 1st/Bet and XpressBet!
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