After mother nature made life difficult for thoroughbred racing across most of the country last weekend, we have a big week of Triple Crown preps on the horizon. The Withers and Southwest (G3) were rescheduled for Friday, while the two originally scheduled qualifiers go as planned on Saturday afternoon in Tampa and Southern California. To celebrate the big weekend, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are dropping a Money Back promotion to take us all the way to mid-April. Just register for the new promo and get up to $10 back on your Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. There are four cracks at the offer this week. Here are my thoughts on the four preps:
Withers, Aqueduct, Friday Race 10 (4:20 pm ET)
This 9-furlong event for $200k kicks off the prep action for the weekend and should see an honest pace at the very least. This should bode well for the lone maiden entered #1 Grittiness. The Curlin colt did not perform well against a much stronger group in the Remsen (G2) with the addition of blinkers for the first time, so Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher takes the shades right back off for this guy’s second stakes try. Two-back he finished well to earn second to odds-on favorite Courting and should get a much better trip and setup this time under Ricardo Santana, Jr. His lack of wins should result in a playable price on the Repole Stable runner.
Play: #1 Grittiness (9-2 ML)
Southwest (G3), Oaklawn, Friday Race 11 (5:40 pm ET)
The deepest of the four preps this weekend undoubtedly will occur in Arkansas on Friday afternoon. The $1M Southwest (G3) at 1 1/16-miles drew a field of 14 originally, but 5-2-ML favorite #5 Litmus Test did not make the trip to Hot Springs. Despite the Nyquist colt’s omission, there should be an extremely honest early pace with #1 Reclamation, #2 D’Code, and #3 Buetane all drawn down on the inside with little choice, but to go from the jump. This should set the table for an off-the-pace runner like #4 Rancho Santa Fe. The Gary & Mary West Stables homebred rattled off two wins in Kentucky to kick off his career before a disappointing effort in the Smarty Jones to start his 2026 season. I am willing to forgive the performance though because not only did Rancho Santa Fe not get an ideal setup, but more importantly he was on the wrong part of the track throughout on a day where the inside was clearly best. I am expecting a big bounce back effort given the likely fast pace to run at, the inside draw, and a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.
Play: #4 Rancho Santa Fe (15-1 ML)
Sam F. Davis, Tampa Bay, Saturday Race 11 (5:30 pm ET)
The first of two originally scheduled Triple Crown preps goes as the final race on a solid 11-race card in Oldsmar where I am hopeful it is “go time” for #6 Renegade. The regally bred son of Into Mischief has yet to earn a win through 3 starts, but that is not something I am holding against him. He crossed the wire first two-back in a MSW against the highly regarded Palladin, but was placed second through DQ before being defeated on the square by the Chad Brown trainee in the Remsen (G2). However, that was also forgivable since Renegade came into the early December race on a less-than-ideal training pattern. Todd Pletcher has won this race a record 7 times and Renegade looks ready to fire his best shot on Saturday afternoon.
Play: #6 Renegade
Robert B. Lewis (G3), Saturday Santa Anita, Race 8 (7:05 pm ET)
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Robert B. Lewis (G3) an eye-popping 13 times and holds a strong hand once again in this year’s Grade 3 event at one mile. The Hall of Fame conditioner sends out 3 led by 6-5-ML favorite #1 Desert Gate. The Omaha Beach colt ran first or second in all four starts as a 2YO, including a runner-up effort to #4 Intrepido when we saw him race last in the American Pharoah (G1) and has been training extremely well heading into his 3YO debut. He is the one to beat, but I will take a swing with his stablemate #3 Cherokee Nation. The $1.15M Keeneland September 2024 purchase has yet to cross the wire first, but was clearly best last out when breaking terribly and still almost getting to wire-to-wire winner #6 Robusta. Baffert thought enough of this colt to send him to Kentucky last fall for the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and his recency could be a big edge on Saturday afternoon.
Play: #3 Cherokee Nation (5-1 ML)
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