The biggest day of the year at Tampa Bay Downs is upon us and the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) could prove to be more impactful in the Kentucky Derby picture than in recent years. The featured event marks this weekend’s chance at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s Triple Crown Money Back Special where you get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third.
In addition to the Derby qualifier, there is a solid supporting card with plenty of other stakes action. Here are the horses I landed on in each of the stakes:
Race 5: Challenger (G3)
#8 Skippylongstocking is the clear one to beat in this year’s Challenger as the son of Exaggerator tries to win the 8.5-furlong test over the main track for the third consecutive year, but I will try to beat him with #6 Most Wanted. The Candy Ride colt got off to a late start to his career but was always highly regarded by the Brad Cox barn. He has been given time after a solid runner-up effort to Rattle N Roll in the Clark (G2) on Thanksgiving weekend. He should get the jump on Skippylongstocking and appears poised for a career best run off the bench.
Play: #6 Most Wanted
Race 7: Columbia
Trainer Chad Brown holds a strong 1-2-punch in this year’s Columbia with #1 Early Adopter and #6 Zulu Kingdom. I will try to beat them both though with #4 Reagan’s Wit. The son of Authentic gets a serious class test, but he finished full of run in his maiden special weight victory at Fair Grounds on January 20. The 3YO colt looks like another serious racehorse for trainer Cherie DeVaux.
Play: #4 Reagan’s Wit
Race 9: Hillsborough (G2)
Chad Brown has three in this 9-furlong turf event for fillies and mares and I have no desire in trying to beat him. If you are looking for a better price, #6 Spaliday could be the play, but #8 Saffron Moon is a single for me in the late horizontals. The talented daughter of Malibu Moon has struggled to put back-to-back races together throughout her career, so it is a tremendous sign she is ready to roll after pulling away late to win the Endeavour (G3) last month. She loves this course and retains Flavien Prat.
Play: #8 Saffron Moon
Race 10: Florida Oaks (G3)
Tossing #9 Nitrogen after her much better than looks on paper win in the Ginger Brew is tough to do. The Medaglia d’Oro filly outran her odds in a pair of Grade 1’s to end her 2YO season and then proved her class in her return at Gulfstream Park in January. However, I slightly prefer #7 Opulent Restraint. The Irish-bred was extremely well-meant on debut when she was bet down to 3 to 5 in a field of ten at Saratoga. She failed to deliver that afternoon in upstate New York, but bounced back with back-to-back wins to close 2024. Brown has clearly pointed her for this spot and legs up Prat once again.
Play: #7 Opulent Restraint
Race 11: Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
In a shocking development, Chad Brown has a strong presence in the feature as well. The Tampa Bay Derby marks the return of both #2 Chancer McPatrick and #3 Hill Road. Chancer McPatrick was undefeated prior to racing against the flow in his mid-pack finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Brown adds the blinkers to this McKinzie colt for the first time. He did little wrong as a 2YO, but still has to prove himself at two-turns. #3 Hill Road showed he could handle both a route of ground and dirt when he finished full of run late at 61-1 to earn third in the aforementioned Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He also gets the blinkers, but has to avoid leaving himself with too much to do late.
I like #7 Patch Adams (pictured) best. I thought he was one of the top contenders for this year’s Derby before stumbling at the start in his underwhelming fourth-place finish in the Southwest (G3). He may not be what I thought he was at the start of the year, but I am willing to give him one more shot. He should be much more involved early in his second try off the bench, assuming a cleaner start. I will use my Money Back Special play on the son of Into Mischief!
Play: #7 Patch Adams
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