The 12-race Rebel Stakes (G2) card originally scheduled for Saturday has been pushed back to Sunday due to weather conditions in Hot Springs, but that does not take away from the outstanding wagering opportunities offered from start-to-finish. Amongst them are a late Pick 4 that includes three graded stakes races with another 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET, as well as another chance at the Triple Crown Prep Money-Back Special. It promises to be a February Sunday Funday to remember.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Honeybee (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Take Charge Milady; 13 Five G; 9 Look Forward
Backups: 1 Muhimma; 11 Anonima
Forecast: Brad Cox brought undefeated filly Good Cheer back off the layoff last Saturday in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and she was dominant beating a soft field in New Orleans. On Sunday, it will be #1 Muhimma who returns off a 2.5-month respite after rattling off three straight wins to kick off her career. She has a much tougher task than her stablemate did last weekend since the Shadwell Stable runner has plenty of talent and speed drawn to her outside in the first leg of this challenging late Pick 4.
#13 Five G would be my top choice if not for the draw. The Vekoma filly has done virtually nothing wrong in her last three starts, including a huge effort in her win in the Cash Run at Gulfstream Park on New Years’ Day. If Irad Ortiz Jr. can avoid a wide voyage from the 13-hole, this George Weaver trainee has a huge chance. #6 Take Charge Milady should get a much-better trip. The Kenny McPeek runner encountered traffic issues in her loss to stablemate #11 Anonima on December 20 and has rattled off a pair of impressive victories over this surface since. She should fall into another favorable mid-pack voyage under Julien Leparoux. Anonima also was done no favors at the draw, but at 15-1 is tough to outright toss. #9 Look Forward has serious speed and a lot of talent. If she can avoid getting caught up in an early tussle, she could prove tough to catch late.
Race 10: Razorback (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Skinner
Backups: 3 First Mission; 1 Crupi; 4 Alexander Helios; 8 Baddest Good Boy
Forecast: #5 Skinner was the all rage going into his first start for the Cherie DeVaux barn last month at Fair Grounds, but underwhelmed over the slop in the Louisiana (G3). His only other try over an off track was modest as well, so I am willing to forgive the dull run and come back with him in this 1 1/16-mile stake for 4YO+. The son of Curlin retains Jose Ortiz and should get an honest pace to chase.
I will back him up with several including #3 First Mission who makes his first start since the Whitney (G1) for Brad Cox, #4 Alexander Helios who has hit the board in all three starts over this surface for the red-hot Saffie Joseph Jr. barn, #1 Crupi who gets some class relief after being outrun in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), and undefeated #8 Baddest Good Boy, who gets a major class test for Norm Casse.
Race 11: Rebel (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10 Bullard; 1 Coal Battle (pictured)
Backups: 3 Sandman; 4 Hypnus
Forecast: #3 Sandman was made the lukewarm 4-1-morning line favorite in this year’s Rebel after breaking poorly, yet still coming with a strong late run to finish second to #11 Speed King in the Southwest (G3) last month. The Tapit colt has done little wrong other than his gate issue last month since arriving in Hot Springs for Mark Casse, but is likely to get a bit over bet off of the trouble last out.
Southern California invaders #5 Madaket Road and #10 Bullard also are likely to take plenty of public support. I much prefer Bullard. The Gun Runner colt has yet to try two-turns and draws towards the outside, but his talent is obvious. He was on the wrong part of the track in his third-place finish to Barnes in the San Vicente (G2). If he takes to the added ground like I expect, they could be running for second place. That said, Umberto Rispoli has his work cut out for him from the 10-hole. I will also include #1 Coal Battle on all tickets. The Coal Front colt has been a great story for veteran conditioner Lonnie Briley. He can certainly finish, but the key will be avoiding traffic issues along the rail. #4 Hypnus showed some ability in his maiden breaker over the off track in Louisiana. This is a big ask in his second start, but he should be the right price to include as a backup.
In terms of the Money Back Special, I will take advantage with Bullard assuming the 5-1-morning line holds. If not, I will move to Coal Battle.
Race 12:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Tizmarkus; 2 Mayor; 3 Cutting Class; 12 Miracle Mark
Backups: None
Forecast: #8 Two Dollar Eddie is the deserving 3-1-morning line favorite in the finale after three consecutive runner-up efforts for trainer Greg Compton. The Good Samaritan gelding ran well last time to finish second, but has had far too many chances to endorse as the top choice. I like #9 Tizmarkus most despite being turned away by Two Dollar Eddie on debut. The 4YO colt took a lot of public support going off at 5-2 in a 12-horse field and held his own. A step forward gets the job done in here. I will also include first-time starter #2 Mayor, second-time starter #3 Cutting Class, and #12 Miracle Mark who gets blinkers for the initial time.
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