After a strong Saturday card led by Battle of Normandy’s victory in the featured River City (G3), Churchill Downs has another solid Sunday slate, in addition to our up to $10 Money Back Offer available on the Long Island (G3) at Aqueduct. Here are a few horses I like most!
Churchill Downs Race 4:
A wide-open MSW event for 2YO fillies going two-turns on the sod kicks off a middle Pick 4 on this ten-race card where I like #3 Humbled. The daughter of War of Will debuted going 7-furlongs at Kentucky Downs and did not have an ideal voyage at odds of 43-1, yet still finished fifth in a field of 12. I found that to be a great sign since her trainer Robbie Medina is patient with his juveniles evidenced by his 1 for 38-record with 2YO first-time starters over the last five years. Therefore, it was no surprise when she took a step forward in her second start 25 days later in Indiana. The $40K Keeneland January ’23 purchase got out of the gates a little quicker and actually took the lead at 8-1 when they turned for home, but probably moved too soon. She had no answer for the odds-on favorite tiring to finish fourth beaten a little more than two lengths. Now, Luis Saez jumps aboard. I expect him to be aggressive with this filly who should ready to fire her at best and at a pretty good price.
Play: #3 Humbled (10-1 ML)
Churchill Downs Race 5:
I am not as creative in this third-level allowance event at 6-furlongs over the main track. #5 Happy Am I has lost four straight since rattling off three victories in a row last fall/winter for trainer Dallas Stewart. Those starts though all came against better than she encounters in this one, including last out in the $300K Open Mind S. when she broke well, chased the pace of inside speed Run for the Hills, and grinded away third to last-to-first winner, Zeitlos. Now, she has been given nearly two months by Stewart and finds a softer spot where there does not appear to be much early speed signed on. Look for Tyler Gaffalione to make the lead or sit just off the pace with this daughter of Runhappy. She should be very tough to catch late.
Play: #5 Happy Am I (2-1 ML)
Churchill Downs Race 9:
This first-level allowance event at 1 1/16-miles marks the return of $1.4M purchase, #7 Hall of Fame. As you would imagine, the Gun Runner colt came to the races nearly a year ago highly regarded. He went off at 8-5-in a field of 11 and ran well to finish second before coming back on the Lecomte (G3) undercard at Fair Grounds and romping at odds-on. Unfortunately, he followed that up with two off the board finishes in Derby preps and has been on the sidelines since.
Often, horses like this that are highly regarded big-ticket 2YOs and fail to live up to expectations are great fades when they return to the races, but I learned the hard way that is not the right way to handle Steve Asmussen’s trainees. We saw it yesterday with Track Phantom who ran huge and the examples are endless, but when North America’s all-time leading conditioner gives a quality horse time and brings them back off the layoff, they are usually ready to fire a big shot. I expect that to be the case with this colt who comes in off a long series of drills over this oval and attracts Tyler Gaffalione. Do not be surprised if Hall of Fame is amongst the top older handicap horses in the country in 2025 and gets started in advance with a big win here before heading down to NOLA.
Play: #7 Hall of Fame (4-1 ML)
Good luck!
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