Today marks the final day of Santa Anita Park’s Autumn Meet and the start of Churchill Downs 26-day Fall Meet. Closing Day in Arcadia means mandatory payouts in all pools, including the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 and Sunset Six, which will be on break until December 26. Opening Day in Louisville as always is headlined by the first of two Stars of Tomorrow cards meaning 2YO races from start-to-finish. It should be a Sunday Funday well worth investing in at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Here are a pair of plays at each track I plan on investing in assuming they do not take much money.
Churchill Downs
Race 5:
This MSW at two-turns over the main track kicks off a middle Pick 4 and I like the chances of Kenny McPeek trainee #6 Instant Impact. The Upstart colt debuted in an off the turf race going 7-furlongs at Saratoga, which does not concern me too much other than taking it as a minor positive that this one was originally a part of McPeek’s string at the premier summer meet. He then returned home to the Blue Grass State where he was down on a dead rail going over the 1.5-turn unique one-mile configuration at Ellis Park. He was able to overcome being on the wrong part of the track with a solid runner-up effort to a Brad Cox runner that came back to win his next start at Keeneland on October 11. The progression is solid stretching out to a true route of ground for the first time in his third career start, which should lead to a career best effort for the $200k FTS August 2024 purchase.
Play: #6 Instant Impact (7-2 ML)
Race 7:
I will cut back to a sprint in my second of two plays in Louisville and aim to beat 5-2-ML favorite #11 Stradale with 7-2-second choice #4 Rockies Balboa. Stradale drops out of Grade 1 company where he ran into a buzz saw in Napoleon Solo, but was never a threat at odds of nearly 14-1. The class relief should benefit, but the $1.3M son of Yaupon has already failed as the favorite twice at Saratoga this summer. On the other hand, Rockies Balboa has been solid prices in each of his first two starts for trainer Dale Romans. He took a big step forward, as many Romans runners do after their debut, on October 4 at Keeneland when he ran a solid second to impressive debut winner Local Knowledge. The effort was flattered when third-place finisher Galivant came back to beat stakes foes in the Bowman Mill yesterday at Keeneland. Romans has had a great 2025 and keeps his main man Corey Lanerie aboard the Girvin colt that will get some of my money this afternoon.
Play: #4 Rockies Balboa (7-2 ML)
Santa Anita
Race 4:
My first play at the Great Race Place comes in this MSW for 2YO fillies travelling one-mile over the turf where I am expecting a big move forward in start two for #5 Island Home. The Amerman Racing filly is a half-sister to Hay Dakota and Significant Form suggesting that trainer Michael McCarthy had her on the right surface in her debut on October 3. The problem was not only did she likely need the start, but she also raced against the flow with Latte Luv taking the field from gate-to-wire. Expect the daughter of Maxfield to have more energy late with jockey Kazushi Kimura sticking around.
Play: #5 Island Home (7-2 ML)
Race 8: Autumn Miss (G3)
Last, but certainly not least comes the feature on Closing Day at Santa Anita, which also happens to be the final opportunity at our Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder promotion. Wager $25 on this two-turn turf affair for 3YO fillies and get $5 in bonus funds plugged into your account on October 31. Hopefully, lots of you have already taken advantage of this no brainer deal where I will be wagering on #6 Take A Breath with my $25. The British-bred makes her third start in the States for trainer Mark Glatt after being stopped badly in her attempt to win a first-level allowance up the inside as the 9-5-choice on September 28. We will never know if Hector Berrios would have had enough to be a major player late on that day, but this daughter of Bated Breath clearly has more than she was able to show last out. Hopefully, she does not get over bet off the traffic issues.
Play: #6 Take A Breath (5-1 ML)
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