There are no duds when it comes to the 7-day Kentucky Downs meeting, but no doubt Saturday afternoon marks the biggest day of the stand. The stakes races start at 3:27 PM eastern with the first of three selected Money Back Special Races and it does not stop until Race 11, you guessed it the final Money Back opportunity of the afternoon.
Here are my plays in those Money Back Special stakes races:
Race 6: Ladies Marathon (G3)
It is not too often I endorse wagering on a morning line favorite with a Money Back offer at Kentucky Downs, but this 1 5/16-mile event for fillies and mares is certainly #2 Chop Chop’s race to lose. The City of Light filly showed talent on the turf right off the rip, winning her debut over the Ellis Park lawn and backing it up with a stakes victory over this course in September of 2022. Understandably, when the $230k FTK July 2021 purchase showed talent on the dirt as well, trainer Brad Cox put her onto the Kentucky Oaks trail. But in the end, this is a horse that runs better off the main track and has shown that since last December.
Chop Chop (pictured above) finds a softer spot than her last effort over the good going at Saratoga in the Glens Falls (G2) and a race where she should sit a perfect trip just off a moderate early tempo. The obvious major danger is Aidan O’Brien conditioned #4 Greenfinch. The Justify filly has the upside to move forward and beat the more experienced Chop Chop, but otherwise it is likely to take a clunker for the morning line chalk to fail. The presence of Flavien Prat certainly does not hurt her chances.
Play: #2 Chop Chop (5-2 ML)
Race 9: Franklin-Simpson (G1)
There is a lot of early zip signed on in this $2M event at 6.5-furlongs where #10 Howard Wolowitz is probably the likeliest winner. The Munnings colt never got to run in the lane last out in the Mahony S. at Saratoga and still was beaten just over a length. Prior to that in his first start for trainer Jose D’Angelo, the Gold Square LLC runner dominated his competition in a MSW event over the all-weather at Gulfstream Park. I am not overly against this horse at all, especially with the move to an outside draw, but expect to him to get over bet. That makes him a tough sell for me, especially since he has to prove himself at the tricky 6.5-furlong distance.
#4 Yellow Card exits the same race at the Spa and had an equally poor voyage in his first stakes try. The son of Lost Treasure had all sorts of traffic issues early and then never got a fair shake in a race dominated by those who were prominently placed. Two-back, the $87k OBS April 2023 purchase won going away in his first start over the lawn and did so from off the pace in a race that did not collapse. He should get a quick pace to run at here and the best part is he is 15-1 on the morning line. Trainer Michael McCarthy has not had much success at Kentucky Downs of late, but the price is right to hope he gets a big one on Saturday.
Play: #4 Yellow Card (15-1 ML)
Race 11: Turf Sprint S. (G2)
The Turf Sprint is one of the more intriguing stakes races on the Saturday afternoon slate. Not only does it feature Jaipur (G1) and Turf Sprint (G2) winner #4 Cogburn, who is listed as the 6-5-morning line favorite, but also European import #8 Khadeem and the powerful uncoupled Larry Rivelli entry of #3 One Timer and #10 Nobals.
The pace should be contentious in this 6-furlong dash for $2M, which at the very least will force Cogburn to work if he is to earn his third consecutive graded stakes score for Steve Asmussen. After two massive efforts, North America’s all-time leading trainer has given him time before running for this massive purse with the obvious goal of winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in the fall. Cogburn has proven fastest of this bunch in 2024 but has to demonstrate he can do it over this course making his likely off odds tough to swallow.
I will take the likeliest winner on with #3 One Timer. The son of Trappe Shot has finished second in each of his two starts since returning off the layoff. The 5YO gelding though has not been camera shy throughout his career evidenced by his 7 for 14 overall-record. One Timer has hit the board in all three starts over this course and should get a very favorable pocket trip under one of the most underrated turf riders in the country in Jareth Loveberry.
Play: #3 One Timer (8-1 ML)
Good luck on this extremely strong and challenging card!
.svg){kind=logo}
