Happy Travers Week, racing fans! The biggest card of the summer is upon us and the New York Racing Association has delivered. An incredibly strong 14-race extravaganza is on tap for Saturday at Saratoga, of course headlined by the 155th running of the Travers Stakes.
The Midsummer Derby, as usually is the case, attracted the best healthy 3YOs in the land, and Xpressbet and 1/ST BET have two promotions featuring the 10-furlong event that could go a long way in determining champion 3YO. A massive 5M rewards points will be up for grabs with a Hit & Split in the All-Stakes Pick 4 that starts with the Ballerina (Race 10) and concludes with the Travers. Additionally, we have a $20 Money Back Special where you will receive a refund of your Win Bet, up to $20, if the horse you bet to Win finishes 2nd or 3rd in this year’s Travers.
Here are my thoughts:
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 10: Ballerina (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Society; 1 Positano Sunset
Backups: 3 Vahva
Forecast: #3 Vahva is a filly that has continued to get better and better for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The daughter of Gun Runner has rattled off back-to-back graded stakes victories, including her first Grade 1 in the Derby City Distaff on Kentucky Derby weekend. She is the likeliest winner in this year’s Ballerina but she is going to be a very short price. I am not overly excited to take a massive stand against Vahva but she may get over bet, so I will use her with my price horses in the next three races, but focus my wagering on two runners that I hope can spring the upset.
#4 Society makes just her second start of 2024 for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. The Gun Runner mare set the pace and faded to third in her return race back in late June at Churchill Downs but that was clearly not the goal. Asmussen has worked her four straight Sunday’s over the Saratoga training track in hopes she can get back to her best, which was pretty good a year ago. If she can avoid getting caught up in an early tussle with #8 Munnys Gold, she could have enough left late to turn the tables on Vahva.
I also am going to include #1 Positano Sunset on all tickets. The Goldencents filly will need to run the race of her life to beat these but she continues to improve and will be one of those who benefits most if indeed Munnys Gold takes it to Society in the early stages. Julien Leparoux will be in the back saving ground throughout for trainer Ian Wilkes.
Race 11: Forego (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Cagliostro; 4 Baby Yoda
Backups: 2 Twisted Ride; 7 Angkor; 5 Run Classic
Forecast: #6 Mullikin is listed as the 8-5-favorite in this year’s Forego after rattling off three consecutive victories against lesser for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. If this was a game of simply picking the likeliest winner, I could see making a case that Mullikin is just that. However, I do not see him as anything close to a standout. He takes on Grade 1 company for the initial time and has never been over the Saratoga main track. Furthermore, he comes in off a dream trip victory in the John A. Nerud on a day where he broke well, but getting out of the gates clean has not been a strength overall through eight career starts. He can win but I will take a stand against. Same is true of the second choice #1 Gun Pilot. The Steve Asmussen trainee had his day in a subpar edition of the Churchill Downs (G1) in early May but he faces a tall task here, especially given the rail draw.
#8 Cagliostro is a horse I have always been high on. He is quirky, so it took him awhile to figure out the mental side of things but Cherie DeVaux has been patient and hopefully gets the true payoff on Saturday. The Upstart colt should sit a clean trip from his far outside draw. I expect him to relish the slight cutback to 7-panels. #4 Baby Yoda is also a must use. He regressed last time out as expected off of a huge effort in the True North (G2). He is 4 for 7 over this surface and could be sitting on another big one for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.
#2 Twisted Ride was beaten to the lead last out by the very quick Skelly, but has a chance to control the early tempo against this group. I will use him as a backup, as well as #7 Angkor who continues to get better but needs to prove he can handle this class level, and #5 Run Classic who we probably have seen the best of, but does have a few efforts in the past that make him worth including if you are fading the chalks.
Race 12: H. Allen Jerkens (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 World Record; 5 Prince of Monaco
Backups: 8 Book‘em Danno
Forecast: This 7-furlong dash over the main track for 3YOs came up super strong this year with Jersey-bred #8 Book’em Danno listed as the 7-2-lukewarm favorite. The son of Bucchero is hard to knock coming in off a pair of wins against stakes foes, including his victory two-back in the Woody Stephens (G1) over this surface. He obviously has a big shot to make it three in a row, but I do give the nod to two others.
#1 World Record was extremely well-backed in the three starts in Kentucky to kick off his career and showed some talent, but he took things to a new level last out in the Amsterdam (G2). In his first graded stakes try, trainer Rodolphe Brisset added blinkers for the initial time. It led to a dominant 6 1/2 length win at odds of 6-1. Some might anticipate significant regression from the Gun Runner colt but I am not so sure that will be the case. I think there is a chance he is just that fast with the shades on. At anything close to his 8-1 morning line price, I am willing to pay to find out.
#5 Prince of Monaco lost to Book’em Danno in the Woody Stephens but had significant trouble at the start. The $950k son of Speighstown has not raced since but has trained regularly in Southern California. When Bob Baffert points to a spot with a talented racehorse, he is obviously extremely dangerous.
Race 13: Travers (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Thorpedo Anna
Backups: 7 Dornoch
Forecast: Thorpedo Anna enters the 2024 Travers Stakes starting gates in search of history. The Kenny McPeek trainee takes on the boys in hopes of being the first female to win the Midsummer Derby since Lady Rotha did it in 1915. And she has a huge chance. The Fast Anna filly has won all four of her starts this year handily and stacks up extremely well against what I would deem at this point to be an average crop of 3YO males. Many handicappers are concerned with the rail draw, but I am not. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr is likely to come away running and then hope to sit just off the likely early pacesetters, #3 Unmatched Wisdom and #8 Fierceness. If the lead is there for the taking, I am sure Hernandez will be happy to take it but I have never considered this talented gal a “need the lead type”. Either way, I think she proves on Saturday she is the best 3YO on dirt in the world.
#7 Dornoch is my backup. The Good Magic colt has shown talent, grit, and determination in his wins in the Belmont (G1) and Haskell (G1). Much like Thorpedo Anna, the full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage will have to avoid getting caught up in an early tussle, but he has shown he likes to get in and win a battle, unlike some of his main rivals in this year’s Travers.
In terms of my Money Back Special Play, I will happily put $20 to win on my top choice, Thorpedo Anna, knowing that if she finishes second or third, I will get my money back.
Good luck in the late Pick 4, the Travers, and on the entire 14-race card in upstate New York!
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