It is somewhat hard to believe, but the summer of 2025 has come and gone. With that comes the final week of racing at historic Saratoga Race Course. However, there are still three big weekend cards to come, including the last Saturday of the meet, which is headlined by the Spinaway (G1). The 7-furlong affair for 2YO fillies goes as Race 11 of 13 and makes up the middle leg of the late Pick 5. HereQ are my thoughts on the sequence.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Shoot It True
Backups: 3 Tales of the Heart
Forecast: #4 Shoot It True moved to the turf for the first time on July 18 for trainer Wesley Ward and beat a field of state-bred first-level allowance foes for total fun. The Munnings filly did not get out of the gate well in her victory last month, but showed a lot of early zip in her four prior starts over the dirt. Ward finds a pretty soft open company allowance event over the same course his filly won over last month. She can probably win again from off the pace, but with a cleaner start she should make the lead and be very tough to catch late. If Shoot It True fails to put forth her best, #3 Tales of the Heart makes some sense to run this group down late. The Resolute Racing filly has lacked a strong enough punch to get to the wire first through 4 starts in the States, but might have found the right spot if the Ward fails to fire.
Race 10: Flower Bowl (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 La Mehana
Backups: 2 Amber Cascade
Forecast: #4 La Mehana fired a career best effort last out over the yielding going in the Glens Falls (G2) for hot training Miguel Clement. The 6YO mare should get another honest pace to run at in her attempt to make it 3 wins in a row dating back to June. If she avoids regression, they are running for second place. If she happens to take a step backwards in her second start at the Spa, #2 Amber Cascade intrigues at a big price. The daughter of Free Drop Billy was claimed by trainer Mike Maker out of at 9-furlong dirt race at Churchill Downs in mid-May, given ten weeks, and she came back with a big performance. In fact it was a better than looks second in the Ladies Mile Turf Preview at Ellis Park when she missed by just a head despite struggling to find running room in the lane. Maker has done it before stretching horses out on the grass. She should be a juicy price.
Race 11: Spinaway (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Tommy Jo
Backups: 7 Steer Clear; 5 Percy’s Bar; 2 Meringue
Forecast: #4 Mythical and #8 Tommy Jo are likely to take a lot of support in the feature. Mythical holds the experience edge over all of her rivals, including Tommy Jo and brings a perfect 3 for 3-record into her toughest task to date. It is hard to knock her, but she comes back in less than a month and is likely to take plenty of heat from her outside. I prefer Tommy Jo. The Spendthrift farm filly was one of the most impressive juvenile winners this summer in New York and once again draws favorably to the outside. A move forward makes her tough to beat.
The tote board may suggest a two-filly race to an extent, but it is far from that. #5 Percy’s Bar was really good in her two starts this spring in Kentucky for trainer Ben Colebrook. Colebrook rarely ships horses into the Spa, but clearly thinks a lot of this daughter of Upstart. She did take advantage of a very favorable setup though in her win in Louisville in late June. #7 Steer Clear is the “other Pletcher”. She was beaten by #1 Ornellaia in the August 2 MSW race, but was best in my opinion. She was part of a contentious pace and held together pretty well late. A move forward is well within the cards. Same is true of #2 Meringue who is still learning and probably a reach, but is likely to get overlooked in the wagering making her worth including as a backup.
Race 12:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 War Stride; 4 Surveillance; 5 Acoustic Ave
Backups: None
Forecast: I am going to take a swing against the two ML favorites in this second-level allowance event at 6-furlongs over the main track. #2 Rookie Card was dominant last out, but it was against lesser over a speed favoring racetrack. Plus, he has yet to prove he can put forth back-to-back top performances. #7 Whatchatalkinabout makes his second start of the meet after failing over the mud last out at 9-5 for Wesley Ward. His two races at Aqueduct prior are scary, but he has to prove it to me in upstate New York before I swallow the chalk.
I will use a few against the likely favorites, including #1 War Stride. The Tamarkuz gelding put forth back-to-back big efforts this spring before being caught three-wide over a racetrack that favored the inside on the Fourth of July. He was in a logical regression spot as well that afternoon, but has been given time and should get a great trip along the rail under jockey Eric Cancel. He is one of the more intriguing long shots on the card.
Race 13:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Debt Limit; 11 Laurel Valley
Backups: 2 Candytown
Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in the finale where #5 Debt Limit does appear the one to beat after a third-place finish to the very good looking Then last month. The blinkers go on the Chad Brown trainee that aims to make it 3 for 5 to kick off his career. I will also use #11 Laurel Valley. On paper, there appears to be enough early speed to keep things honest, but I have seen this movie in New York before. The Three Diamonds Farm gelding is dangerous if left alone on the front end under Ricardo Santana Jr.
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