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The week of racing at Saratoga continues on Saturday afternoon with a strong 12-race card that includes a pair of graded stakes events over the dirt. The Vanderbilt (G2) kicks off the stakes action shortly after 5PM eastern with older sprinters traveling six-furlongs immediately followed by the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) for 3YO fillies featuring Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Always a Runner and Acorn (G1) victor Counting Stars. Don't forget the Trifecta-Thon promotion running through Sunday. Here are my full-card thoughts on another fun one at the Spa.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: B
Use: 5 Intraosseous; 3 Ms Liu
Forecast: #7 Elevated is expected to take a lot of support in her first career start. She was made 2-1 on the ML and understandably so. She is a Myracehorse filly trained by Bill Mott by freshman sire Flightline. Plenty of reasons for the public to flock to her, but I will side with two runners with experience. #5 Intraosseous is my top choice. The $200k Keeneland September ’25 purchase was off slow on debut and unable to travel over the better part of the racetrack on a day where the inside was best at Churchill Downs, but put in a solid late run and gallop out to kick off her career. The experience she gained that afternoon in Louisville combined with a more favorable break and trip should lead to massive improvement. #3 Ms Liu also intrigues. The daughter of Greatest Honour battled early before tiring late on debut for Jena Antonucci. She should also move forward in her second lifetime try.
Race 2:
Grade: C
Use: 3 Power of Women; 1 Lady Wisdom
Forecast: #3 Power of Women appears the one to beat in this state-bred $40k starter out of the Wilson chute. The daughter of Big Brown was claimed last month for $20k by hot training Horacio DePaz. DePaz moves her into a protected state-bred spot and stretches her out to further than 7-furlongs for the first time in her career. Speed has been good over this surface and the fact he attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. suggests she is live right back off the big win at Aqueduct. The distance is a slight concern but she is likely to prove tough to catch. #1 Lady Wisdom is also worth consideration though. Her two most recent efforts over a fast main track have been wins. She should find a favorable stalking stop off what could be a lively early pace at a better price.
Race 3:
Grade: C+
Use: 9 Grand Yaupon; 3 Ferrum/6 Foolin
Forecast: A competitive MSW for 2YOS over the main track is up next where #3 Ferrum looks quick. The son of Uncle Mo has fired off a pair of bullet drills over the Saratoga main track for Danny Gargan and attracts Kendrick Carmouche. I assume the plan is to take them as far as he can assuming a clean break. He will likely have to be fit though to finish the 6-furlongs given the group to his outside. Some other promising firsters are there, but #9 Grand Yaupon is probably the biggest danger. The Steve Asmussen trainee broke sharp, but was not fast enough to go with the eventual winner at Churchill in mid-June. He gets a rider upgrade and moves to the outside with the invaluable experience under his belt. His price makes him tough to endorse with excitement given the upside of this group, but he is the likely winner nonetheless.
Race 4:
Grade: B-
Use: 2 Sir Oscar; 9 Naguile; 5 Inspeightofcharlie
Forecast: $220k Saratoga August ’24 purchase #3 Honoree commanded a strong amount at the sale considering he is out of Code of Honor who stands for just $7500. Thus far he has shown some solid ability, but his price is likely to be short for me to back in this competitive state-bred first-level allowance over the Inner Turf. He lacks speed most importantly, plus the mile might be a bit too sharp. #2 Sir Oscar will also get bet, but should run well. He did not save ground at any point and still proved much the best in his return race. He draws favorably and might be the strongest finisher at eight-furlongs of the bunch. #9 Naguile has been tough to relax in his two most recent starts since returning off a ten-month break. He gets the right man in the saddle though this time in Flavien Prat. I am expecting a much-improved performance at what should be a solid price.
Race 5:
Grade: B+
Use: 5 Go Grey; 6 King’s Remark
Forecast: #10 Instability was visually impressive at Tampa Bay Downs to kick off his career, but failed to follow it up with a win at odds-on in the Woodhaven in late April. He has not raced since, but was made the 5-2-ML favorite in this highly competitive first-level allowance for 3YOs over the grass. He draws to the outside and has a strong field to beat. I cannot swallow the chalk, especially because I expect a big bounce back effort from #5 Go Grey. The son of Knicks Go showed a solid turn of foot in his first two races going long on the grass in the Mid-Atlantic for Michael Trombetta. Last time out against stakes foes in the Saranac, Paco Lopez was aggressive out of the gate, which led to him stalking a hot pace and tiring late. I understand the move by Paco, but I expect a trip much more similar to his April and June wins where he settled early and finished with energy. Jose Ortiz taking the call for the first time does not hurt his case. #6 King’s Remark can finish well too. He has been quirky out of the gate and early in races, but if he gets in the clear after a clean start, he could be the one making the last move.
Race 6:
Grade: C
Use: 4 Resilience; 1 Dreamlike
Forecast: This second-level allowance at 9-furlongs over the main track marks the return of Louisiana Derby (G2) winner #8 Emerging Market. The Chad Brown runner competed unsuccessfully in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1) and after seven weeks is set to return against older runners for the first time. The upside is obvious and the race goes through him, but wagering on him at his 8-5-ML price is another story. I lack a strong opinion due to my inability to trust any of this group, but I will try to wire the field out with #4 Resilience. It has been a while since the son of Into Mischief’s last win, but he could get brave on the front end at a fair price.
Race 7:
Grade: C+
Use: 8 Sammy C Note; 4 Jack’s World; 9 Oat Contour
Forecast: Famous last words when handicapping races at Saratoga over the Inner Turf, but the pace should be honest at the very least in this state-bred first-level allowance. This should bode well for the ML favorites #4 Jack’s World and #9 Oak Contour, but #8 Sammy C Note also intrigues. The 4YO gelding makes his third start off the bench and since moving into the Michael Miceli barn after his 3YO season. He has moved forward significantly with the barn change and should be set for his best assuming he handles the two turns. His only other try going a route was not a clean trip, so it is basically a clean slate for the son of Good Samaritan.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Soloist; 9 Bella Knows; 1 Bourbon Betty
Forecast: Yet another competitive allowance on the slate is up next. This one is a first-level event for 3YO fillies at 1 1/16 over the grass where #12 Kokomotion makes her first start since a third-place effort in the Florida Oaks (G3). She has done very little wrong thus far and got a great learning experience with a much different trip in her stakes debut than she did in her impressive off-the-pace maiden score. The talent is there, but she drew the outside off the bench and meets a strong group. I understand using her in horizontals or with your key horse, but she is tough to push all-in on given the race dynamics.
I like a few somewhat equally with the biggest price of the trio being #4 Soloist. The Kenny McPeek trainee attracts Jose Ortiz for the first time, which is probably noteworthy since Ortiz has only been aboard three McPeek horses dating back to the start of last year at Saratoga. Two have won and the other ran second. She fits well at a playable price.
Race 9: Vanderbilt (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Just Beat the Odds; 8 Built/1 Damon’s Mound
Forecast: The first of two graded stakes is this six-furlong dash over the main track where being prominent early is likely to be a positive. There is simply not a lot of speed signed on for a race of this level, which should benefit ML favorite #8 Built. The Hard Spun colt has moved forward since being cutback to one-turn by trainer Wayne Catalano and is likely to sit a perfect stalking trip from his outside draw. He is the likeliest winner, but not a world beater either. The best way to beat him is probably to get the jump. I expect #4 Just Beat the Odds to do just that. The son of Munnings makes his second start off the layoff after battling early and tiring late in his return race at Delaware Park. He has run races fastest enough to put him there at the wire if he is able to control the early tempo.
Race 10: Coaching Club American Oaks (G1)
Grade: C
Use: 7 Directive; 1 Counting Stars; 6 Always a Runner
Forecast: I wish I had a stronger opinion in this year’s CCA Oaks, but not only did I have a difficult time separating #1 Counting Stars and #6 Always a Runner, but the pace being murky adds potential variance. It appears on paper that Always a Runner stablemate #7 Directive will go to the front with #1 Counting Stars in a perfect tracking spot. Counting Stars will win this if she avoids regression off the career best run in early June, but if she does take a step back it is easy to see either Directive going on with it or Always a Runner rallying from off-the-pace in the final stages. Directive is the biggest price, so I will pick her on top, but with little confidence.
Race 11:
Grade: C+
Use: 7 Dancingwithdestiny; 4 Moonlight Ready
Forecast: The first of two state-bred races over the grass is at 5.5-furlongs where I will use a pair of logicals. #7 Dancingwithdestiny ran hard and arguably too good to lose in her June 28 start at the “Big A”. She ran third in her only start over this course and has the tactical speed to find a prominent spot early. #4 Moonlight Ready is a tough read since she has only two career starts and one on the grass, but is tough to toss outright off the surprise victory on June 21. That said, it does feel like a missed the wedding type moment since she was 37-1 last month.
Race 12:
Grade: C
Use: 2 Big Fat Goalie/7 Leave Me
Forecast: Backing class dropper #7 Leave Me makes some sense for sure given the barn going well and the move to Irad Ortiz, but he was really underwhelming last out despite a favorable trip making him tough to endorse with confidence. Therefore, I will take a swing with first-time starter #2 Big Fat Goalie. The Flying P Stable gelding debuts for Robert Falcone Jr. Falcone has had little success with turf routers making their first start with a limited sample of late, but it is interesting he attracted to Flavien Prat along with drawing inside. Hopefully, the son of Independence Hall is ready at first asking.
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