Santa Anita Park takes center stage on Saturday afternoon with their 11-race “Big Cap” Day card. The racing kicks off at 3PM eastern/12PM local time and includes four graded stakes events. It also marks the return of 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s Exacta-Thon. The goal this time is to hit 5 or more $2 exactas over the course of the afternoon. Those who connect on at least 5 will earn an equal split of $4000. The horseplayer(s) that connect on the most will take down the other $1000. Remember to register and best of luck! Here are my full card thoughts.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Booked Clubhouse
Forecast: The opener is a state-bred MSW event for 3YOs sprinting over the sod where 3-1-ML favorite #3 Booked Clubhouse looks like the one to beat. The Sean McCarthy trainee put in a strong run from off the pace without a setup in his first start off the freshening. The effort was flattered when the winner of that event came back and won in his first start versus winners. He should get an honest pace to run at on the slight cutback with Kyle Frey sticking around.
Race 2:
Grade: B
Use: 7 Simple Song; 6 Red Flag; 4 The Last Straw
Forecast: #6 Red Flag is the one to beat in this first-level allowance at 6-furlongs after two strong efforts since being claimed at Del Mar last November by trainer Jeff Mullins. However, he has had favorable flows in both starts where #7 Simple Song has not. The son of Munnings sped to the lead off the break for Mark Glatt on January 2 in a race that collapsed late and then did not run well, but again was part of a contentious early pace in his follow up try on January 31. Glatt puts the blinkers on for the first time and Simple Song very well could control things without issue in his third start off the bench. Hopefully, he has more stick in the lane. I will key Simple Song with Red Flag and potential up setter #4 The Last Straw for my first Exacta-Thon play on the day.
Race 3:
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Cosmic Heat; 1 Umbralle; 3 Surfin’ USA
Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this first-level allowance other than I expect #2 Will Happen to get over bet. Trainer Richard Baltas is just 3 for 44 with a $0.72 ROI over the last 60 days and this gal has not raced since early October. I will use a few in early horizontals in hopes of besting the ML chalk. Good luck to the late, great Jeff Siegel and Eric Sondheimer’s #3 Surfin’ USA!
Race 4: Beholder Mile (G1)
Grade: X
Use: 4 Splendora
Forecast: I have no interest in trying to beat 4-5-favorite #4 Splendora in the first of four graded stakes races on the Big Cap Day agenda. The daughter of Audible has rattled off four in a row, including a dominant win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She could be forced to work going two turns, but in the end, she should prevail once again under Juan Hernandez. Perhaps cold punching an exacta play with the chalk on top could be a smart way to approach this race from an Exacta-Thon perspective.
Race 5:
Grade: B
Use: 5 Dakota Country; 6 Jimmy Blue Jeans
Forecast: What a cool horse #6 Jimmy Blue Jeans is. 2 for 2 to kick off his 8YO season after failing to win in 8 starts in 2025. He is the one to beat in this starter at one mile over the turf, but perhaps #4 Phospherence moving inside him may make things a bit more difficult for the veteran Cal-bred. I think #5 Dakota Country is live either way at a big price. The NY-bred stretches back out to two-turns after just missing at 40-1 going one-turn on February 21. The son of Mucho Macho Man has proven experience at a route of ground and could fall into a perfect trip with Tiago Pereira taking the call.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Use: 10 Captain Shreve; 7 Duke Silver; 9 Memory; 1 Crude Velocity; 3 Decisive Win
Forecast: Obviously, one of the trio of Bob Baffert first-time starters have a strong chance to get to the wire first in this 6.5-furlong main track event that kicks off the Pick 6, but I am intrigued by a pair of others. #10 Captain Shreve holds the experience edge at the tricky 6.5-furlong distance and should have options out of the gate from his far outside draw. This could prove beneficial in the final sixteenth of a mile. #7 Duke Silver has no experience, but is likely to be forgotten on the tote. The son of Silver State commanded $335k at the OBS April ’25 sale, which is noteworthy since his sire stands for just $7500. He comes in off a steady work pattern for Mark Glatt.
Race 7:
Grade: B
Use: 1 Mo Sasha
Forecast: The post is not ideal for a 6-furlong turf sprint, but #1 Mo Sasha should still be very tough in this MSW for 3YO fillies. The daughter of Constitution lacked early speed in her first start over this course in late January, but showed some serious talent splitting two speed horses with a big late run to earn second. Juan Hernandez will have to work out a trip given the inside draw, but I do not think the Michael McCarthy trainee has that much to beat in the start of the late Pick 5 and All-Turf Pick 3.
Race 8: San Felipe (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Secured Freedom; 4 Brant
Forecast: For a deeper dive into my thoughts on the Triple Crown prep check out my blog from yesterday, Horse Cents with Bailey Armour, or the 1/ST Call Podcast with Jeremy Plonk, but there is no doubt #4 Brant is supposed to win this race with his best. The question is what is his best in terms of two-turns making #3 Secured Freedom the bet. The Practical Joke colt had a brutal trip in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) yet kept trying to the wire. He holds the recency edge over the likely odds-on favorite making him worth a Win wager with our Money Back Special offer. Or maybe some of you would prefer a 4-3 exacta for the Exacta-Thon promo.
Race 9: Frank Kilroe Mile (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 1 Mi Hermano Ramon; 2 Almendares
Forecast: The only thing I am confident about in this year’s Kilroe Mile is barring scratches there should be an honest early pace. Not only is #3 El Potente likely to show his customary speed, but the quick #6 Mi Bago ships in for Mark Casse, in addition to #5 Cabo Spirit and #7 Final Boss, who do their best running when upfront as well. I wish I trusted an off-the-pace runner more, but my lukewarm top choice is #1 Mi Hermano Ramon. The Mark Glatt trainee makes his first start since late spring ’25, and probably prefers a bit more ground, but he draws favorably along the inside and should get the right setup.
Race 10: Santa Anita Handicap (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Vodka Vodka; 6 British Isles
Forecast: Unfortunately, this year’s Big Cap field lost a couple of those originally entered, but there is still some opportunity despite the compact group. #3 Just a Touch and #2 Getaway Car are likely to take the most public support by a pretty significant amount, but I will try to beat them with a pair of prices. #4 Vodka Vodka should be ready for the 10-furlong test. He has been freshened up by trainer Aggie Ordonez after a win over the grass against lesser in mid-January. He has a shot to spring the upset, as does #6 British Isles. The Justify gelding ships back west after a decent fifth in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). He has been given time and should have no issue with the 1-1/4 miles.
Race 11:
Grade: B-
Use: 9 King of Dragons; 2 Gold Council; 3 Highplainsdrifter
Forecast: Trainer Mark Glatt holds a strong hand with the two favorites in the finale. #7 Infinitum and #1 Warm Sun and Brew both make plenty of sense to be there at the wire, but I do not trust either of them to seal the deal. I will try to beat them with a pair of prices that should get good trips from the inside, as well as top choice #9 King of Dragons. The Peter Eurton makes his third start off the bench after a poor start cost him all chance two months ago. Eurton lures Hector Berrios for the first time. Hopefully, he can angle over and save ground early before a strong run late.
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