The racing week in Arcadia starts with a bang later this afternoon when there is not only a Sunset Six carryover of nearly $44k, but also a $2 Pick 6 carryover of $52,044 after tough sledding on Sunday afternoon. The sequence kicks off with an open claimer on the dirt in Race 4 and concludes at 4:33 PM local time with a conditional claimer over the sod. Here is how I plan to attack the carryover.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Leyvas Candy; 2 Resemblance
Backups: None
Forecast: The Pick 6 gets started with this $16k claimer at one mile over the main track where pace is likely to make the race given the lack of early speed signed on. This should benefit #6 Leyvas Candy most. The 7YO gelding drops in class after being beaten to the lead in mid-January for trainer Andrew Harris. Edwin Maldonado should have no issue making the front from his outside draw and is the likeliest to get to the wire first. If he fails to seal the deal late, #2 Resemblance is the one I expect to take advantage. The son of Nyquist was claimed off a win against similar by trainer Doug O’Neill. O’Neill stays realistic and keeps Tyler Baze aboard. He should be in a perfect stalking spot not too far off the likely pace of Leyvas Candy.
Race 5:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Tahini
Backups: 4 Young Love
Forecast: #2 Certitude is listed as the 8-5-ML favorite in this second-level allowance down the hill. The Hronis Racing mare has not competed in the afternoons since a pair of two-turn tries this fall for John Sadler. Sadler has struggled of late winning with just 3 of 32 over the last 30 days for a $0.39 ROI and this European import is far from a cinch on the turnback. I will use two runners in hopes of besting the ML choice, including top pick #3 Tahini. The blinkers go back on this American Pharoah mare who battled early and tired late in a similar spot a month ago. She should have things easier on the front end this afternoon.
Race 6:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 4 Liam Smith; 6 Straight Buzzin
Backups: 3 Sendit Mo
Forecast: I lack creativity in this optional claimer at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where I landed without serious conviction on #4 Liam Smith. The son of Midshipman is wheeled back quickly off the claim by trainer Jeff Mullins on January 23 and makes sense, but certainly has questions still to answer after a wire-to-wire neck score in his second try. Therefore, I will use a couple of others, including #6 Straight Buzzin. The Cal-bred speed burnt a field of fellow state-breds on January 18 and gets off the rail for his first start versus winners.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Tessuto; 6 Enterdadragon; 5 Spearfish
Backups: 3 Smart Code
Forecast: I am against 5-2-ML favorite #1 Vancougar in this starter over the sod. The 7YO gelding was underwhelming late in a similar spot a month ago for Peter Eurton and is hard to get excited about at his likely off odds/value in the sequence. I will use three runners I expect to offer much better value on all tickets, including #2 Tessuto and #5 Spearfish. Both have the speed to be involved early in a race that lacks serious early zip. Tessuto has not competed on the grass since last spring, but I like that trainer Jeff Mullins moves him right to the lawn after claiming for $50k in late December. Spearfish ran hard last out, but was run down late. Jockey Mirco Demuro has a positive ROI on the turf since arriving in the States. I will also include a wild card in #6 Enterdadragon. No doubt, the son of Outwork needs to run better than he has since entering the Phil D’Amato barn, but he has kept stronger company than he encounters this afternoon. Perhaps he takes to the cutback and makes the final move.
Race 8:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Runamileinmyshoes
Backups: 3 Time to Shine
Forecast: 6-5-ML favorite #4 Runamileinmyshoes is the clear horse to beat in this first-level allowance over the main track given the lack of early speed. The Street Boss mare moves back to the main track after being claimed yet again out of his last start by trainer Peter Miller. Miller legs up Emisael Jaramillo. Jaramillo is strong from the gate and should get this one in a prominent spot early. I expect her to be tough to catch late. If she gets caught, I will hope it is by price horse #3 Time to Shine. The Mark Glatt trainee moved back to the main track last time and ran a solid second at odds of 15-1. She shouldn’t be too far off the early pace in the second start of her 4YO campaign.
Race 9:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Prince Dolce; 2 Precision
Backups: None
Forecast: I hope to get to the finale and be live to a pair of runners on the class drop in this conditional $25k claimer over the grass. #2 Precision is the wild card since he has not raced since the Pasadena last March. Trainer Michael McCarthy drops him in for a tag for the first time off a 180+ day break, a move he has won with 3 of 15 over the last 5 years. He obviously can run better than he did when we saw him last, but #6 Prince Dolce is the clear horse to beat. The Carla Gaines trainee is just 1 for 10, but he can finish. He should find his friends at this level.
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