The Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series kicks off on Saturday when 50 points will be rewarded to the winner of the Risen Star (G2). The 9-furlong test has been used regularly as a springboard to greater success by some of the country’s best 3YOs, including last year when 5-2-public choice Sierra Leone got the job done under Tyler Gaffalione. Gaffalione will once again be on the likely favorite in this year’s race, which goes as the final leg of an all-stakes late Pick 4 sequence that gets started in Race 11.
Once again Xpressbet and 1/ST BET are celebrating with not only a Late Pick 4 Hit & Split for 2 million 1/ST Rewards Points, but up to a $10 Money-Back Special on the Risen Star win bets as well! Just remember to register for both promotions!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 11: Mineshaft (G3)
Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 4 Hall of Fame
Backups: None
Forecast: I am all in to kick things off with #4 Hall of Fame. The $1.4M son of Gun Runner disappointed badly in two starts against graded stakes foes for Steve Asmussen as a 3YO, but North America’s all-time leading trainer did what he has done with success so many times in the past; showed patience.
After giving Hall of Fame over eight months after his tenth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Asmussen brought his trainee back in a one-turn test at Churchill Downs. He passed it with flying colors stalking just off the early pacesetters and then proved he can win on the front end as well in his second start off the bench here in New Orleans. The 7-figure purchase appears poised for a career best performance, regardless of whether he is on the front end or opts to stalk a few lengths off the pace.
Race 12: Fair Grounds (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Gigante (pictured); 3 Unit Economics
Backups: None
Forecast: I am not too creative unfortunately in the lone grass race in the sequence. #2 Gigante finally got the respect at the windows he deserved in his starts here in the Dilberto Memorial and the Colonel Bradley where the 8-time winner rewarded chalk players with a pair of easy wins. His competition gets tougher here and they stretch out half a furlong, so he will need to be at his best, but the inside draw and success over this course makes him the likeliest winner.
I will also include #3 Unit Economics despite coming in with just two career victories. The 5YO gelding has always been well-meant, but perhaps lacked a will to win. I am hopeful he is over being camera shy despite losing by a neck last out at Gulfstream Park when he was clearly best, but got out of the gate slow and was caught very wide into the lane. Flavien Prat will take the call. The lone time Prat rode this Klaravich Stables runner it resulted in a half-length victory. I will not be at all surprised if he gets the job done again here despite the obvious significant class hike.
Race 13: Rachel Alexandra (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Simply Joking
Backups: 2 Good Cheer
Forecast: This 1 1/16-mile affair on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks marks the return of undefeated #2 Good Cheer. The Medaglia d’Oro filly not only was 4 for 4 as a 2YO, but did so as a filly that consistently came from off the pace. The Brad Cox trainee has a steady series of drills in Florida in preparation for her return and is the obvious one to beat, but perhaps this is the time to try to beat her despite rave reviews coming before her 3YO debut. She was not good from the gate as a juvenile and it is never a certainty that a young filly that matured earlier than her crop will return to be the same dominant racehorse.
I will hope to get the jump on her with #6 Simply Joking. The PA-bred has not beaten the competition that Good Cheer has, but enters her first graded stakes try with a pair of wins against non-graded stakes company. She has the recency edge over Good Cheer and very well could find herself loose on the lead again under regular rider Jaime Torres.
Race 14: Risen Star (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Septarian
Backups: 4 East Avenue
Forecast: I will certainly be taking advantage of the Money-Back Offer on Xpressbet and 1/ST BET with #7 Septarian in the feature. On paper, the son of Protonico looks better off moving to the turf or just simply overmatched, but trainer Chad Brown shipping this gelding into the Big Easy tells me he is ready for a big run. Brown takes this race seriously evidenced by him sending his top 3YO to New Orleans in 2022 (Zandon) and 2024 (Sierra Leone). Maybe he is lacking top Triple Crown prospects in 2025, but this horse has plenty of upside still. The addition of blinkers in many cases would also concern me, but not with this barn. Brown is 23 for his last 77 when putting the shades on before a horse’s first route for a $2.69 ROI. If the blinkers keep him more focused and help him gate out of the gate better, he could be set for a much better run than many might expect. Getting Flavien Prat onboard certainly does not hurt his chances.
#4 East Avenue was awesome in his two starts before botching the break as the public choice in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The regally-bred Brendan Walsh trainee has done little wrong thus far and is reportedly training extremely well heading into his 3YO debut. That said, it is difficult to push all in on a short-priced horse that has not raced since early November and has just a single two-turn race of consequence under his belt. If he wins, he will deservingly become one of the favorites on the first Saturday in May, but betting these types of horses regularly is not a winning strategy.
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