Throughout the month of January, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet have offered up Late Pick 4 Hit & Split opportunities at multiple tracks. On Gulfstream Park's Pegasus Day, we go even bigger! Five million total 1/ST Rewards Points are up for grabs, including 1M in the early Pick 5. The sequence kicks off with a pair of MSW events for newly turned 3YOs and concludes with the first stakes race of the afternoon.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 1:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Wakan; 4 Kunan
Backups: 6 Bulldoze
Forecast: #1 Wakan broke well in his first try at a turf route on December 21, but little went right from there. The Malibu Moon colt probably could have made the lead or at the very least could have been a lot closer to the eventual wire-to-wire winner early on, but instead found traffic issues multiple times. Trainer Carlos Perez turns to jockey Edwin Gonzalez this time. Hopefully, he can work out a cleaner trip from the inside because this colt had a lot more to give when they race was over than it appears on paper.
#4 Kunan is the first-time starter I like most. The son of Omaha Beach is out of an Arch mare that won 2 of 7 two-turn turf races, including a victory in the Robert Frankel at Santa Anita on New Years’ Day 2012. He debuts for Brad Cox. Cox is 16 for 81 for a $2.16 ROI over the last three years with runners making their first start in a turf route. This one is difficult to ignore. #6 Bulldoze also makes some sense. The Nyquist colt is out of a mare that is a half-sister to 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner, Sharing and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr.
Race 2:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Disputor; 7 Bob Mo
Backups: 3 Brockton Blaze
Forecast: The word has been out for days about #5 Disruptor. The $1.15M Keeneland September 2023 purchase comes in off a strong series of works at Palm Beach Downs for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. Clearly, the connections pointed to this race where he is the one to beat, but #7 Bob Mo merits serious consideration as well. The Uncle Mo colt was terrible through three starts, but trainer Rohan Crichton took the blinkers off for the first time on December 28 and he was a different animal. He broke well and appeared to be long gone, but could not hold off the late run of the impressive Tappan Street. Clearly, the equipment change made a huge difference. His experience edge should not be overlooked.
#3 Brockton Blaze took no money and did little running in his first start last month for trainer Kenny McPeek. He will need a huge move forward to be competitive against this group, but this barn regularly has horses take massive jumps from first start to second. At 20-1, I will use.
Race 3:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2 Atone
Backups: None
Forecast: The pace should be hot in this second-level allowance event at one-mile over the sod, which should benefit #2 Atone. The 2023 Pegasus World Cup Turf winner drops into the softest spot he has encountered in some time. The son of Into Mischief certainly is no longer at the top of his game, but should get a perfect ground saving trip from just off the pace under Luis Saez. It sort of feels like now or never for the $1.4M earner, who has hit the board in 3 of 6 over this turf course.
Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Dreaming of Mo; 6 Sun Bee; 7 Dana’s Beauty; 9 Charlie’s Wish; 10 De Regreso
Backups: None
Forecast: Fortunately, I am “skinny” early in my approach because this $100k handicap over the Gulfstream Park all-weather appears wide-open. The morning line favorites #7 Dana’s Beauty and #5 Sand and Sea both make a ton of sense, but they could compromise each other’s chances on the front end. #3 Tutta La Vita is listed as the third choice yet has never competed over anything but turf. I am willing to let Tutta La Vita and Sand and Sea beat me, but will include Dana’s Beauty, as well as some price options.
#2 Dreaming of Mo could end up getting the perfect pocket trip off of the two morning line choices making her a must use. So is #6 Sun Bee who finished second to Sand and Sea last out, but had very little chance after the 51.2 first half mile. #9 Charlie’s Wish and #10 De Regreso did not draw favorably, but offer enough value to include. Charlie’s Wish has earned 4 of her 5 career wins over this course and attracts Jose Ortiz for the initial time. De Regreso comes in off a pair of third place runs over the Gulfstream Park sod. The move back to the all-weather should benefit.
Race 5: Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 11 Reef Runner; 9 Nobals; 1 Johnny Podres
Backups: 4 Axthelm
Forecast: The Pegasus Day early Pick 5 concludes with this $165,000 five-furlong dash over the sod. As one would expect, there is ton of early zip signed on. This includes 7-2-morning line favorite #9 Nobals. Nobals has been trying to find a spot to make his first start since mid-November, but weather has presented challenges for trainer Larry Rivelli. That said, he reportedly is training as well as ever, so if he can avoid an early duel, he will be tough to beat. However, he is hard to totally trust at a relative short price with speed to both sides and trying a new course for the first time, so I will include a few others at bigger prices that can potentially take advantage of things if this race falls apart late.
Cal-bred #1 Johnny Podres will need a gem from Irad Ortiz Jr. to win this from his rail draw, but if they go at it early, he should be rolling late. #11 Reef Runner also should get a favorable voyage. The Big Beast colt finished a solid third to Coppola in the aforementioned Janus without a contentious pace to run at. That should be different in his third start of the form cycle. #4 Axthelm is probably not good enough, but he could be making the last move if the pace is hot. I will include as a backup at his 20-1-morning line price.
Good luck!
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